Political Turmoil in Florida: A Race to Fill Vacant House Seats
MIAMI — With at least three House Republicans in Florida set to exit Congress next year, a vibrant and contentious race is brewing among various contenders eager to claim these midterm openings. Among the hopefuls is a pardoned former felon and several Republicans who have previously attempted to secure office in other states, alongside notable party officials.
This burgeoning pool of candidates is poised to enhance the already colorful Florida delegation, potentially reshuffling the political landscape due to mid-cycle redistricting. This could lead to millions being spent on campaigns and create rifts within the party. Given the delicate balance of power in the House, these races may also have significant implications for the overall majority.
“We are not in the fourth quarter — we are in the first round of the fight here,” remarked GOP consultant Anthony Pedicini, who anticipates “crazy crowded” fields as the August primaries approach. “There’s a lot to go around, a lot to be fleshed out yet.”
The vacancies are primarily due to the retirements of GOP Reps. Vern Buchanan, 74, and Neal Dunn, 72. Additionally, Rep. Byron Donalds, 47, appears to be a frontrunner for the governor’s mansion in Florida.
While all three districts are considered safe for Republicans, the already tense atmosphere is heightened by the looming mid-decade redistricting process. This uncertainty means that candidates are launching their bids without a clear understanding of the district’s future composition. Indeed, Governor Ron DeSantis has signaled his preference for delaying new district maps until late April, extending the candidate qualifying period to June.
“I would be lying if I said I didn’t think about it,” said Republican Austin Rogers, a former aide to Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who recently declared his candidacy for Florida’s 2nd Congressional District in the northern Panhandle. “But, from my perspective, I just have to pound the pavement working in the district that I know.”
Amidst the uncertainty, candidates are eager to seize the opportunity to join Florida’s 28-member delegation; hesitation could mean waiting decades for another chance. The race for CD-2 has attracted prominent names, including state GOP Chair Evan Power, who is vying to fill Dunn’s shoes. Power continues to lead the state party as the midterms approach. On the Democratic side, former Rep. Gwen Graham, daughter of the late senator and governor Bob Graham, is also weighing a run.
The contest has drawn attention from various political figures, such as Keith Gross, an attorney who previously ran an unsuccessful Senate campaign against Scott, and Kingdom Insurance owner Nick Lewis. Other Democratic candidates, including foreign aid professional Amanda Marie Green, tech entrepreneur Nic Zateslo, and attorney Yen Bailey, entered the race prior to Dunn’s retirement announcement.
“A lot of national eyes will be cast upon this area. That’s why we are seeing so much stimulation on both sides,” noted Ryan Ray, chair of the Leon County Democratic Party and a veteran of Graham’s successful 2014 campaign. He believes the seat, encompassing Tallahassee, is “up for grabs” in light of what he describes as the “absolute collapse of MAGA” and rising tensions within Florida’s GOP supermajority.
Power, who recently met with White House officials regarding his candidacy, emphasized the need for “reinforcements” in Washington to ensure Trump remains a “four-year president” and to prevent a Democratic majority from impeding progress in Congress. “It’s not the time for people who have been absent from the fights of our lifetime,” he asserted. “I am a battle-tested leader and I’m ready to lead this race.”
In Florida’s 16th District, Buchanan’s retirement announcement last week signals the end of his two-decade congressional career and his influential role as vice-chair of the Ways and Means Committee. A successful businessman prior to his political career, Buchanan was a prolific fundraiser who helped launch the political journeys of several prominent figures in Florida, including Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters.
While Gruters has been floated as a possible candidate for the seat, an RNC spokesperson has indicated he is not running. However, insiders suggest that Gruters’ wife, Sydney, executive director of the New College of Florida Foundation, may consider a run if he opts out. Already in the race is combat veteran and U.S. Army Reserve chief warrant officer Jon Harris, along with potential candidates like state Rep. Fiona McFarland and former state Rep. Tommy Gregory. Kristen Truong, a state House candidate married to a Manatee County commissioner, has also been courted by supporters but is deferring to Gruters for now.
Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin likened the current wave of Republican retirements—outpacing Democratic exits—to “rats fleeing off a sinking ship.” The 2024 election cycle saw only then-Rep. Bill Posey’s abrupt retirement just before the qualifying deadline, thwarting challengers to his chosen successor.
By 2025, special elections were prompted by the exits of Mike Waltz, who became U.N. ambassador, and Matt Gaetz, who initially resigned to become Trump’s attorney general but withdrew after facing backlash due to sexual misconduct allegations he denied.
In Donalds’ district, over a dozen candidates are already positioning themselves to replace him; however, a notable figure could still enter the fray, potentially reshaping the competition. Among the Republicans running, at least five have previously sought office in other states. One key contender is Jim Oberweis, a former Illinois state senator with nearly $3 million in cash reserves—mostly self-funded—leading among GOP contenders for the seat.
Some candidates arrive with significant political baggage. Recently announcing his campaign is Chris Collins, who resigned from Congress after pleading guilty to insider trading and was subsequently pardoned by Trump. Notably, Collins was the first congressional member to endorse Trump in 2016 and is making a bold return by investing over $10,000 in advertisements for the Super Bowl and Olympics.
Madison Cawthorn, who served a tumultuous term representing North Carolina, is also in the race, having loaned his campaign half a million dollars, yet only raising a mere $18,000 in the last quarter of 2025. Additionally, Lee County Sheriff Carmine Marceno is contemplating a run, with Pedicini lending his expertise.
As if this political circus weren’t chaotic enough, chatter among insiders suggests that more Florida House members may be contemplating their exits. GOP leaders speculate that redistricting could yield three to five additional seats for Florida Republicans before the midterms, likely attracting even more candidates eager to join the fray.
“It’s Florida politics,” Pedicini quipped. “Anything and everything can — and does — happen. Just when you think Florida is done giving you surprises, she gives you another one.”
Gary Fineout contributed to this report.
