5 reasons all eyes are on Tuesday’s elections in Florida and Wisconsin

On Tuesday, voters in Wisconsin and Florida will cast their ballots for two House seats and a state Supreme Court position, with these elections poised to serve as indicators of the nation’s political health as we approach 2025.

In light of this, Score is examining several crucial themes to interpret the implications of tomorrow’s elections — and what they may reveal (or obscure) as we move through the year.

The Musk Factor

Elon Musk has emerged as a significant player in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, pitting liberal contender Susan Crawford against conservative challenger Brad Schimel. His influence has been felt both as a target for Democratic campaign advertisements and as a generous financial patron for Republican efforts.

Which candidate will resonate more with voters? Tuesday’s results could shed light on this question.

In the final stretch, Musk intensified his involvement in Wisconsin and also contributed to Florida’s special election, as Republicans have encountered a series of special election setbacks, including a surprising defeat in Pennsylvania last week.

While Democrats have received substantial backing from prominent figures like Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and billionaire donor George Soros, none have matched Musk’s financial clout. Two political action committees linked to Musk have funneled a staggering $17 million in support of Schimel, with Musk personally contributing an additional $3 million to the state Republican Party.

Overall, however, Democrats have outspent Republicans in this race, investing nearly $40 million in television advertising compared to $32 million from GOP-affiliated groups, according to AdImpact. Crawford’s campaign also outpaced Schimel in fundraising, raking in $17 million compared to his $7 million.

Democrats have strategically exploited this funding disparity by running ads that link Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency to Schimel. A banner flew over Milwaukee on Thursday, boldly proclaiming, “Go Home Elon. Vote Susan.”

This election marks Musk’s inaugural significant political challenge since bolstering President Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign, during which his America PAC reportedly spent hundreds of millions. It also serves as a crucial test for Democratic messaging against Musk, as they aim to frame the race as a referendum on the world’s wealthiest individual and his proposals to reduce government employment and spending.

Can Democrats Sustain Their Momentum?

Thus far this year, Democrats have achieved a few impressive victories in special elections. They managed to flip state legislative seats in Iowa and Pennsylvania that Trump previously won by substantial margins, while also maintaining their grip on traditional Democratic strongholds.

However, Tuesday represents their most significant test to date. In two Florida special elections for vacant congressional seats, Democratic candidates Josh Weil and Gay Valimont have significantly outpaced their Republican rivals, Randy Fine and Jimmy Patronis, in fundraising, despite the districts being perceived as GOP strongholds.

Republicans are particularly anxious about Fine, as an internal poll from Trump’s pollster Tony Fabrizio revealed Fine trailing Weil by three points, despite Weil raising over $10 million.

Democrats assert that Republicans are “panicking” over this race, but achieving victory in either district will still be a formidable challenge.

Meanwhile, in Wisconsin, recent polling indicates a neck-and-neck contest between Crawford and Schimel.

Eyes on the GOP’s House Majority

Regardless of the outcomes on Tuesday, Republicans will retain control of the House, even if Democrats manage to flip both Florida seats. Nevertheless, the margin remains razor-thin, and any losses could present a significant headache for Speaker Mike Johnson, as he navigates critical policy negotiations.

On Thursday, Trump withdrew Rep. Elise Stefanik’s nomination for the U.N. ambassadorship, expressing concern about risking the seat in a competitive race, signaling that Republicans are beginning to feel the pressure of their slender margins.

If Republicans can hold both seats on Tuesday, it would offer Johnson and Trump a bit more leeway to pursue their most ambitious legislative goals.

Is the Republican Brand in Decline?

While much has been made of the Democrats’ branding challenges, if Republicans fail to perform as expected — a scenario anticipated by many within their own ranks — they should prepare for Democrats to seize the opportunity to gloat. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has already pointed fingers at Fine for any potential underperformance last week.

“Regardless of the outcome, it’s going to be a significant underperformance,” DeSantis remarked to reporters. “They’ll likely try to attribute that to President Trump, but it’s more about the specific candidate in this race.”

The Republican candidate remains optimistic, asserting to POLITICO, “We’re going to be fine.”

Democrats are framing these special elections as a barometer of voter sentiment toward Trump, suggesting it could foreshadow gains in the midterms.

“Not long ago, they were too afraid to engage with voters at town halls. Now, they’re so terrified they can’t even face voters at the polls,” declared Courtney Rice, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, in light of Trump’s decision to withdraw Stefanik’s nomination. “That doesn’t bode well for 2026.”

Voter Turnout

As with any special election, voter turnout will be paramount across all races.

In Wisconsin, early voting figures are set to exceed those from the high-profile race of 2023, with in-person early voting already surpassing that contest and absentee ballot requests not far behind. Two years ago, Janet Protasiewicz emerged victorious in a race that established the ideological balance of the court.

Trump participated in a tele-town hall for Fine and Patronis to galvanize voter turnout in Florida as early voting commenced. The Democratic National Committee is also investing in last-minute efforts to mobilize voters, though the financial commitment has not been disclosed.

Currently, Republicans hold an advantage in early voting turnout, according to Decision Desk HQ data.

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