As of September 11, U.S. government records indicate that China has not engaged in any soybean purchases from the United States. This has raised eyebrows, particularly with the unfolding trade strategies between the two nations.
During an announcement on October 1, former President Donald Trump signaled that discussions regarding soybean procurement will be a pivotal point in his forthcoming meeting with Xi Jinping, the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party.
âOur soybean farmers are being adversely affected because China is holding back on purchases for ‘negotiating’ reasons,â Trump lamented in a post on Truth Social.
He brought attention to his initiative of utilizing tariff revenues to shield American farmers from financial losses, targeting the Biden administration for allegedly neglecting the enforcement of the trade agreement established during his presidency.
âIn four weeks, Iâll meet with President Xi, and soybeans will be a primary topic of discussion,â he stated emphatically. âItâs all going to work out very well!â he added, concluding with a spirited message, âI love our patriots, and every farmer embodies that spirit!â
Soybeans have typically represented the foremost U.S. agricultural export to China, but data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reveal that no soybean purchases have been made by China since May.
In an earlier appeal in August, Trump urged China to quadruple its soybean orders, suggesting that increased imports could alleviate the substantial trade deficitâthe very issue he links to the recent uptick in tariffs on Chinese products.
Moreover, the USDA indicates that as of September 11, no “new crop soybeans” had been procured by China.
As the worldâs largest soybean importer, China has a history of reducing U.S. purchases during heightened diplomatic tensions. The trade stalemate commenced in 2018 amidst Trumpâs introduction of tariffs on approximately $370 billion in Chinese imports, primarily due to concerns over intellectual property theft and unfair trade practices. USDA data illustrated a stark drop in soybean imports that year, with China purchasing merely $3.1 billion worthâdown from $12.2 billion in 2017.
A promise made by the Chinese government to purchase an additional $200 billion in U.S. agricultural and manufactured goods, as part of the âphase oneâ trade agreement signed in January 2020, has been largely unfulfilled.
According to U.S. officials, compliance with these commitments remains questionable. A 2022 analysis from the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) highlighted that China fulfilled only about 58 percent of its purchase targets for U.S. goods outlined in the phase one agreement. In terms of agriculture, it met a modest 77 percent of its commitments.
Recently, China has increasingly pivoted towards South American soybean suppliers such as Brazil and Argentina. In 2024, Chinese customs reported record soybean imports totaling 116 million tons, with 82.3 million tons sourced from Brazilâa 6.7 percent increase compared to the previous yearâwhile U.S. shipments plummeted by 5.7 percent to 24.4 million tons.
The United States and China find themselves in a fleeting trade ceasefire, set to lapse on November 10. Following a phone conversation with Xi last month, Trump noted their agreement to convene face-to-face at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum later this month in South Korea.
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