According to a recent Fox News national survey, former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential race by a narrow margin of 50-48%. This is a reversal from the previous month when Harris held a slight advantage.
While Trump is ahead nationally, Harris leads by 6 points among voters in key battleground states. The candidates are tied at 49% each among voters in counties where the margin between Joe Biden and Trump in the 2020 election was less than 10 points. Trump’s lead comes from counties where he won by more than 10 points in 2020, with a 64-35% advantage over Harris.
There is speculation about whether the Democrat could win the Electoral College while losing the national popular vote, as seen in previous elections where the GOP candidate won the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote.
Trump currently holds a 2-point lead among likely voters, though this falls within the margin of error. The results are consistent among registered voters as well. Harris previously held a 2-point lead in both likely and registered voters in the last month’s survey.
This analysis uses registered voter results to make trend comparisons. Trump’s support has increased among White voters, voters 65 and over, and those with a college degree, reaching record highs.
On the other hand, Harris has seen a decrease in support among key demographics such as Black voters, college graduates, older voters, and White voters with a college degree.
Despite the close race, Trump’s numbers have been improving since August, especially among certain voter groups. Harris, on the other hand, is maintaining her lead among independents, which is keeping the contest competitive.
