Crude oil and gasoline prices are trading lower today, retracting from the gains seen last Friday. March WTI crude oil (CLH26) is down -0.42 (-0.69%), while March RBOB gasoline (RBH26) is down -0.0344 (-1.84%).
The decline in crude oil prices can be attributed to long liquidation pressure and the easing of disruptions to Kazakhstan’s oil exports. Kazakhstan’s Tengiz and Korolev oil fields had been closed due to power generator fires, but a Black Sea terminal has since been brought back into service. This has led to a reduction in production of around 900,000 barrels per day, affecting the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal on Russia’s Black Sea Coast.
Last Friday, crude oil prices surged by nearly +3% following Russia’s dismissal of hopes for a breakthrough in peace talks with Ukraine and President Trump’s hints at potential military action against Iran. The market also reacted to concerns about supply disruptions caused by a massive storm in the US.
The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to impact oil prices, with the Kremlin stating that the “territorial issue” remains unresolved and warning that a long-term settlement cannot be achieved until Russia’s demands are met. This geopolitical tension is keeping restrictions on Russian crude in place and supporting oil prices.
Additionally, President Trump’s statements regarding potential military force against Iran and the US threatening to limit the supply of dollars for Iraqi oil sales have added to the bullish sentiment in the market.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently revised its global crude surplus estimate for 2026 to 3.7 million barrels per day, slightly lower than the previous forecast. Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased its 2026 US crude production estimate but lowered its energy consumption forecast.
Vortexa reported a decrease in crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days, indicating a slight decline in inventory levels.
The article also highlights OPEC’s decision to pause production increases in the first quarter of 2026 and the impact of Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. The latest EIA report showed mixed inventory levels in the US, with crude oil inventories below the seasonal average, gasoline inventories above, and distillate inventories below.
Baker Hughes reported a slight increase in the number of active US oil rigs, signaling a potential uptick in production. Overall, the oil market remains sensitive to geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions, which are likely to influence prices in the near term.
