Republicans’ Immigration Strategy Faces Turbulence Ahead of Midterms
For years, the GOP has felt confident in its immigration and border security stance, viewing it as a solid platform to rally support. Even amidst the tempestuous waters stirred by Donald Trump’s 2016 promise to ban Muslim immigrants and his more recent claims about migrants dining on pets in Springfield, Ohio, immigration remained a reliable talking point for the party.
However, the landscape is shifting dramatically.
Recent viral images from Minnesota, coupled with a notable increase in enforcement actions by Trump’s immigration agents, have sparked public outrage. The tragic deaths of two individuals in Minneapolis have further compounded this backlash, leading to a growing disenchantment with the GOP’s approach to immigration and diminishing Trump’s once-firm grip on the issue as midterm elections loom.
Polling data illustrates this shift: a recent Reuters/Ipsos survey shows a significant drop in support for Trump’s immigration policies, with 58% of Americans believing his crackdown is excessive. Approval ratings for his immigration management have slid to 39%, marking an 11-point decline since February. Furthermore, a poll from the Democratic-leaning Searchlight Institute reveals that 58% of likely midterm voters are in favor of curtailing ICE’s powers.
“The image that has been created is not a good thing,” remarked Jose Arango, the Republican chair from Hudson County, New Jersey, a predominantly Democratic region with a significant Hispanic demographic that shifted toward the GOP in 2024. “We’re losing the public relations battle.”
Even prior to the violent events in Minneapolis, Trump’s base was expressing concerns regarding his immigration strategy. A POLITICO Poll indicates that a plurality of Americans view the president’s mass deportation efforts as overly aggressive, including 20% of voters who supported him in 2024. Additionally, over a third of Trump’s supporters express disapproval of how he is executing his immigration policies.
Polling released by the Senate Majority PAC, shared exclusively with POLITICO, could provide further evidence of a Democratic resurgence as public sentiment shifts away from Trump’s immigration agenda. The data suggests a notable increase in disapproval of ICE, with a majority of voters endorsing the Democrats’ push for reform—even if it risks a partial government shutdown. Notably, 54% of respondents stated they would hold the GOP and Trump accountable if a shutdown occurs, signaling a potential electoral pivot among moderates and swing voters.
While former President Joe Biden’s administration has left itself politically vulnerable regarding immigration, Trump capitalized on these weaknesses with promises to secure the southern border and launch the most extensive deportation campaign in U.S. history. Yet, his enforcement tactics appear to focus more on the interior of the country rather than the border itself, a strategy that has drawn criticism from both within his party and outside, including from notable commentators like Joe Rogan.
“The president can sense that his border policies have garnered majority support. However, the strategies being applied inland seem to be falling flat,” stated Oklahoma City Mayor David Holt, a Republican who endorsed Kamala Harris in 2024 despite leading one of the most conservative major cities in the nation.
A seasoned Republican strategist, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, expressed concern regarding ICE’s activities in states like Minnesota, far from the southern border. “When I think about immigrants broadly, Minnesota isn’t the first place that comes to mind. Voters want to see tangible actions against criminal illegal immigrants and a commitment to building more border walls. I can’t recall the last time we discussed the wall in a significant way during Trump’s second term.”
This situation raises a critical question for Republicans: Are they on the brink of relinquishing one of their strongest issues to the Democrats?
“Immigration used to be a winning issue for Democrats when we made it clear we took enforcement seriously,” noted Adam Jentleson, former chief of staff to Sen. John Fetterman (D-Penn.). “If we navigate this carefully, it can become a winning issue for us again.”
Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), a rising star in the Democratic Party, emphasized the need for his party to regain the trust of swing voters by advocating for sensible immigration enforcement while acknowledging the need for reform. “We must present ourselves as the party that prioritizes proper legal enforcement of immigration laws, recognizing that we need to deport criminals and secure our borders while striving for a reasonable compromise on immigration reform,” Gallego asserted.
Not too long ago, in 2013, a majority of Americans believed the Democratic Party was more aligned with their views on immigration than the Republicans. What implications might this have for the GOP as the midterms approach if they fail to refine their messaging?
“The numbers will likely continue to decline,” warned the longtime GOP strategist.
Gallego, who has called for the dismissal of White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, believes this presents an opportunity for Democrats. “Republicans should be very concerned about their electoral future, especially considering how Miller’s policies may have alienated both Latino and moderate voters. This could have significant repercussions heading into the 2026 elections,” he cautioned.
Alec Hernández, Lisa Kashinsky, and Ali Bianco contributed to this report.
