The Legal Tug-of-War Over Redistricting: A Prelude to November’s Elections
As the clock ticks down to the November elections, a fierce legal battle is unfolding across America’s courtrooms regarding this year’s House map. With high-stakes lawsuits sprouting in nearly a dozen states, the implications of these cases could very well tilt the balance of power in Congress. This tumult follows a tumultuous 2025, which was characterized by intense political confrontations, including notable walkouts, surprising defections among Republicans, and a costly ballot initiative in California.
Compounding the issue is a pivotal case currently before the Supreme Court — Louisiana v. Callais — which possesses the power to fundamentally alter the entire electoral landscape.
“There was a lot of political action in ’25, and that’s turning to the courthouse now, this year,” remarked Justin Levitt, a former advisor to President Joe Biden on democracy and voting rights and a law professor at Loyola Marymount University. “It’s not just the Supreme Court; these are disputes regarding individual state practices cropping up everywhere.”
In places like Missouri, multiple lawsuits and a ballot initiative are underway to challenge the GOP-led redistricting efforts. Meanwhile, in Florida, Democrats are preemptively responding to Governor Ron DeSantis’ anticipated redistricting in April with a lawsuit questioning his authority to initiate such changes. Legal skirmishes in Utah, New York, and Wisconsin could also lead to seat shifts as primary voting approaches.
In Maryland, the National Republican Congressional Committee has hired a lawyer to prepare for any possible redistricting challenges, according to sources who spoke on condition of anonymity. Virginia’s state Supreme Court is poised to decide the legality of a Democratic remapping initiative, which still requires voter approval, while state Democratic officials pledge to contest lower court decisions that are currently stifling their gerrymandering efforts.
This legal limbo presents a dual challenge for organizations focused on redistricting, as they navigate both political maneuvering and judicial uncertainty. As a result, voters and election officials remain in a state of confusion about the district lines they may need to use, potentially with just weeks to prepare.
“That’s something we’re used to at this point,” stated John Bisognano, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee. “Operating on the political front while awaiting court decisions has become a constant reality for us.”
It’s worth noting that 2025 was not devoid of significant court decisions, nor will this year be free from political tussles. Maryland’s Governor Wes Moore and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries are intensifying pressure on state Senate Leader Bill Ferguson, a fellow Democrat opposing the remapping effort. In Florida, lawmakers are debating the optimal timing to address the issue, while Virginia could see an expensive ballot fight over its district map.
However, the most consequential legal battle remains Louisiana v. Callais, which focuses on Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. The outcome of this case could dismantle the House map by overturning a legal interpretation of Section 2 that has historically enabled states to create districts where minority voters constitute at least half the population.
A potential ruling against Section 2 could empower red states, particularly in the South, to eliminate more than a dozen Democratic-held seats, as highlighted by an analysis from liberal organizations last year.
While many legal experts, including Levitt, anticipate a decision by the end of the Supreme Court term in June — likely stalling any redraws before the midterms — there’s no telling when the Court will issue its ruling, and some states are ready to redraw quickly if needed.
A ruling in June could profoundly “reshape not just congressional, but local and state maps for ’27 and ’28,” according to Levitt. He also cautioned that the Court could opt for a more cautious approach, reflecting on the potential chaos such a major decision could unleash: “I think it’s entirely possible that the court here says, ‘you know what, never mind,’ it looks over the edge of the cliff and says, ‘oh, that’s really scary.’”
The Supreme Court’s next scheduled opinion days are set for Tuesday and Wednesday this week, adding to the anticipation surrounding these pivotal cases.
In addition, other significant rulings are pending in various courts. In Virginia, Republicans have claimed victories in two cases before the same judge in Tazewell County, although many anticipate that the state Supreme Court will ultimately determine whether the voter referendum scheduled for April 21 will proceed.
In Utah, a federal panel recently ruled against blocking a newly court-ordered map that awarded one blue-leaning seat to Democrats last year. While Republicans may pursue an appeal, the current decision — along with a recent state Supreme Court ruling rejecting another GOP appeal — could solidify the district lines for the 2026 elections. New York has also seen two state courts favoring Democrats in their quest for an additional blue-leaning seat, although Republicans plan to appeal these decisions to the U.S. Supreme Court.
It’s not unusual for redistricting disputes to end up in judicial hands, but the current mid-cycle clashes have only intensified an already volatile situation. “Redistricting cycles typically follow a pattern: map drawing, litigation, and often more map drawing. This mid-decade cycle is no exception,” expressed Adam Kincaid, president of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, who managed the Texas map redrawing that the Supreme Court ultimately upheld last year. “We can expect several legal confrontations in the months ahead.”
However, the uncertainty surrounding the district maps just months before the elections — coinciding with the onset of primary season — complicates how election officials prepare ballots, leading to confusion among voters. “These situations take a real toll on election officials and voters,” remarked David Becker, founder of the Center for Election Innovation and Research, highlighting the difficulties posed by mid-decade redistricting. “These things make it very challenging for election officials to manage their workload with fewer resources than they’ve ever had.”
This article first appeared in POLITICO Pro’s Morning Score. Interested in receiving the newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro to stay updated with daily policy news and insights into the biggest stories of the day.
