The Affordable Heat Act was seen as a groundbreaking law in Vermont, aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by transitioning residents away from fossil fuels for heating their homes and businesses. However, after years of debate and inaction, the plan ultimately fell apart in February, leaving the future of clean heating in the state uncertain.
With over one-third of Vermonters relying on oil furnaces and another 20 percent using propane, the clean heat standard was expected to encourage the adoption of cleaner and more cost-effective heating options like electric heat pumps. While the policy did not mandate a switch to electric heat pumps, it would have likely incentivized their use.
The failure of the clean heat standard has divided opinions among Vermonters. Some see it as a financial win for residents, while others view it as a setback that will harm both individuals and the environment. The demise of the plan can be attributed to a mix of complex politics, policy design challenges, and interference from conservative groups outside the state.
State Senator Anne Watson, a Democrat/Progressive who supported the law, expressed frustration over the misinformation circulating about the plan. She highlighted the importance of accurate information in shaping public opinion and decision-making.
Vermont has a legally mandated target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent from 1990 levels by 2050. While the state generates most of its electricity from renewable sources, it remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels for heating and transportation. The clean heat standard was intended to address this gap and accelerate the transition to cleaner heating options.
A clean heat standard is a policy that requires providers of heating fuels to progressively lower the emissions associated with their operations. This flexible approach allows states to customize their strategies for reducing emissions and promoting cleaner energy choices.
While Vermont’s clean heat standard faced challenges, similar initiatives have gained traction in other states like Colorado and Massachusetts. These efforts aim to reduce emissions from heating sources and transition to cleaner energy technologies.
Vermont’s clean heat standard proposed a market-based system where fuel dealers would earn clean heat credits by offering weatherization upgrades, heat pumps, or low-emission fuels. This system would have incentivized the adoption of less emissions-intensive heating systems across the state.
The history of the clean heat standard in Vermont was marked by political obstacles, including two vetoes by Republican Governor Phil Scott in 2022 and 2023. The second attempt to pass the bill succeeded in the Senate by a narrow margin, highlighting the contentious nature of the policy.
The failure of Vermont’s clean heat standard underscores the challenges of implementing ambitious climate policies. Despite the setback, advocates and policymakers continue to explore innovative solutions to reduce emissions and promote clean energy in the state.
The provision that required regulators to design the clean heat standard program and then bring it back to lawmakers for another vote before implementation was a significant factor in the legislation’s passage. Typically, programs are designed and implemented immediately, but this unique requirement allowed for lawmakers to have a say in the final program design.
However, lawmakers never got the chance to take that second vote. Regulators released their program design and cost estimates in 2025, giving opponents of the program time to build their case against it. The main argument against the clean heat standard was that it would significantly raise prices for Vermont households still using heating oil, as sellers would pass compliance costs on to customers. The Scott administration claimed that the plan could increase heating oil prices by up to $4 per gallon, though the basis for this number was unclear.
Despite the opposition, utility regulators calculated that the program would cost residents approximately $956 million in its first 10 years of operation but provide societal benefits of $1.5 billion. The average price of heating oil was estimated to increase by 8 cents per gallon initially, rising to 58 cents in 2035. However, those using heat pumps could expect to save $500 per heating season on fuel costs compared to burning oil or save over $1,000 compared to using propane.
In the lead-up to the bill passing, Americans for Prosperity, a national conservative policy advocacy group founded by oil-industry billionaires Charles and David Koch, launched a direct-mail campaign in May 2024, attacking the clean heat standard with inaccurate claims about severe restrictions on natural gas, a tax on heating oil, and mandatory installation of heat pumps in homes.
The 2024 election saw Governor Scott reelected, and 22 legislative seats flipped from Democratic to Republican, eliminating the supermajority needed for a veto override. This shift in power allowed Republicans to capitalize on financial unease in the state and mischaracterize the costs of the clean heat standard, leading to a broad misinformation campaign.
The design process for the clean heat standard proved to be incredibly complex. State utility regulators expressed serious misgivings about whether a thoughtful and effective policy could be put together on the mandated timeline. Participants in the process highlighted the difficulty for average Vermonters to understand the standard, the need for extensive education and outreach efforts, and the potential for small fuel dealers to go out of business, leaving consumers with fewer choices and potentially higher prices.
Ultimately, even the regulators who designed the standard advised against its adoption, citing fatal flaws in its execution. The clean heat standard faced significant opposition and challenges throughout its development and implementation, underscoring the complexities and difficulties of enacting climate policies at the state level. In a report released in January 2025, the public utility commissioners in Vermont made a significant conclusion regarding the Clean Heat Standard. They determined that the policy was not well suited for the state of Vermont. Instead, they suggested expanding existing programs, such as the fee that generates revenue for electric-efficiency programs, as a more effective choice.
Despite some lawmakers still believing in the policy, the likelihood of a gubernatorial veto and the recommendations from the commissioners left many feeling uncertain about the future of the Clean Heat Standard. Even those who were once strong supporters of the policy saw no clear path forward.
“It was the chastened legislature that was unable and unwilling to pick it up and go further,” said Bray, reflecting the sentiment among lawmakers.
Many lawmakers now believe that the Clean Heat Standard, as it was passed in 2023, is unlikely to be reintroduced. Some supporters of the standard are concerned that further action may not be possible as long as Scott remains governor. However, advocates of the underlying ideas behind the policy believe that some form of program to incentivize greenhouse gas reductions from heating is necessary and inevitable, even if progress is slow.
“That’s going to come back, because it’s something that we know has to be achieved,” Cowart emphasized. “Over the course of a generation, this work is going to get done.”
While the future of the Clean Heat Standard in Vermont remains uncertain, it is clear that there is a continued commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions from heating sources. As the state navigates the challenges of implementing effective policies, it is evident that the issue will remain a priority for lawmakers and advocates in the years to come.
