Oil and natural gas markets experienced a significant surge in prices following Iran’s indication that it could retaliate against key regional energy infrastructure after reported strikes on its upstream assets. Brent crude prices climbed by as much as 6%, reaching $10.56 per barrel, while Europe’s gas benchmark saw an increase of nearly 8%. These spikes in prices underscore the mounting fears of potential disruptions in the energy supply.
The reported strikes targeted Iran’s South Pars gas field and associated facilities in Asaluyeh, with Tehran accusing U.S. and Israeli forces of carrying out the attack. This marks a significant escalation in the conflict, as it represents the first direct assault on Iran’s upstream production since the conflict began. The South Pars gas field, shared with Qatar, is renowned as the world’s largest gas field and plays a crucial role in Iran’s energy system, with record output levels of 730 million cubic meters per day in 2025.
In response to the strike, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a warning that major energy assets across the Gulf could become “legitimate targets.” A list of potential sites, including refineries and petrochemical complexes in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, was published in semi-official media. This threat prompted Saudi Aramco to evacuate personnel from the Samref refinery, highlighting the seriousness of the risk facing regional energy infrastructure.
The surge in oil and gas prices reflects a growing concern that the conflict may expand into direct attacks on critical energy infrastructure. With both sides signaling a willingness to target such assets, there is a risk of a broader supply shock that could substantially increase crude and LNG prices and put global energy markets to the test.
As the conflict escalates, there is a growing need to monitor developments closely to assess the potential impact on energy markets. The situation highlights the interconnected nature of global energy supply and the risks associated with geopolitical tensions in key producing regions. It is essential for stakeholders in the energy industry to stay informed and adapt to evolving circumstances to mitigate risks and ensure the stability of the energy market.
