The Wisconsin Supreme Court election last year was seen as crucial for “Western civilization,” but this year’s contest is far less intense.
This time, voters are choosing between liberal Chris Taylor and conservative Maria Lazar in Wisconsin’s third spring high court election in four years. Unlike the previous election, which involved over $100 million in spending and significant national focus, this year’s contest is hardly making waves even within Wisconsin.
“I’m a big college basketball fan, and you couldn’t watch a game a year ago without seeing a Supreme Court ad,” said Alec Zimmerman, a GOP operative in the state. “Watching tournament games right now, it feels like there are significantly fewer. It’s been really quiet.”
The packed November election and the perception that Tuesday’s contest is predictable contribute to the subdued atmosphere.
In recent years, Wisconsin’s statewide elections have often been tightly contested. However, liberal candidates have dominated the last three state Supreme Court races, securing control of the court and leaving Republican voters and donors feeling discouraged, according to some operatives.
“I think there’s a donor burnout on the conservative side because they haven’t been winning,” said Brandon Scholz, who previously directed the Wisconsin GOP and left the party in 2021. “If you win, sure, another check. Who loves to win? Everybody. But that wasn’t happening here.”
This election differs from last year’s as it won’t immediately change the court’s majority. A conservative win would only prevent the current 4-3 liberal majority from growing.
The narrow liberal majority established three years ago has already led to significant changes in Wisconsin. Recently, the court overturned an abortion ban that took effect after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. The court’s liberals also supported Gov. Tony Evers’ use of a line-item veto to secure a 400-year school funding increase. In 2023, the liberal majority also ordered new legislative maps, ending a long-standing GOP gerrymander.
Republicans acknowledge that Taylor is more likely to win.
“It’s definitely an uphill fight,” said Ben Voelkel, who has worked closely with Republican Sen. Ron Johnson and ran for lieutenant governor.
The candidates faced off in a heated debate on a Milwaukee television station, where Lazar criticized Taylor, a former Democratic state legislator, as a judicial activist, while Taylor accused Lazar of being influenced by “right-wing special interests.”
The two sparred over abortion and redistricting days before the polls closed.
Lazar received about a million dollars in campaign contributions in 2025 and 2026, according to the Wisconsin Ethics Commission, compared to Taylor’s approximately $6 million. AdImpact data indicates that Taylor and supporting liberal groups spent over $5 million on advertising, while Lazar and her conservative supporters spent less than $400,000.
This spending is notably less than in 2025 when Elon Musk contributed millions to Republican Brad Schimel’s Supreme Court campaign, asserting that the spring election was crucial for Western civilization and personally campaigning across the state.
Schimel was ultimately defeated by liberal Judge Susan Crawford.
“They’re like, wait a minute, you want me to drop how many more millions this cycle, like I did the last two, three cycles, for a losing effort?” said Scholz. “You want me to drop a couple million dollars to preserve a minority?”
Democrats remain optimistic about their prospects, despite a March poll from Marquette University showing Taylor is nearly as unknown to voters as Lazar. Fifty-three percent of voters said they were undecided.
“It shows me somebody else’s messages are falling flat,” argued Nathan Conrad, a campaign spokesperson for Lazar. “If you have that much money and you can’t win over voters this early it means that you’ve got a message problem. And I think Maria definitely does not have a message problem.”
Democratic strategists acknowledge that the national attention and statewide fervor that contributed to their past victories are absent this time.
“This does feel like more of a race like six years ago,” said Alejandro Verdin, the campaign manager for liberal state Justice Janet Protasiewicz’s successful 2023 Supreme Court bid.
Still, they are confident that Taylor will win, perhaps by a wide margin.
“This race for Supreme Court is very different because Republicans have completely rolled over,” he said. “They’re still licking their wounds from the massive whooping they received from Janet Protasiewicz and Susan Crawford.”
Democrats are eager to mobilize their voters, seeking ways to communicate urgency in a race where the majority isn’t at stake. Voters shouldn’t be complacent, Taylor emphasized in an interview.
“The composition of this court can change very quickly because we have so many elections coming up,” she said. “So nobody should feel that this current majority is set in stone. It’s not. We have four elections after me.”
Few anticipate that Tuesday’s election will indicate much about the state’s political climate in November or during the presidential election in two years.
The governor’s race, featuring Trump-endorsed Rep. Tom Tiffany against the winner of a crowded Democratic primary, is expected to be one of the most watched elections this fall.
Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, and former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes are among the Democrats competing for their party’s nomination in the August primary. Both sides expect a fierce and expensive contest.
Despite this, Lazar’s team insists the Supreme Court race remains open and that she could pull off an upset.
“I think we were always going to be playing the underdog when you have someone who has almost unlimited resources to come against you, it’s always going to feel like it’s an uphill battle,” Conrad, Lazar’s spokesperson, said. “But I think we have the right message, and I think we have an opportunity here for people to feel like they can get some common sense and sanity back on the court.”
A version of this article first appeared in POLITICO Pro’s Morning Score. Want to receive the newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.
