Felonies And Violent Crimes-Increasing Part Of Parole And Probation Caseloads

Summary

This article is also available as a YouTube podcast.

The Bureau of Justice Statistics provides data on parole and probation for 2023, with 2024 statistics expected this Summer. 

Parole usage has significantly dropped.

Explore an overview of technical violations.

The number of individuals on parole and probation fell sharply from approximately 4,750,000 in 2013 to around 3,800,000 in 2023. 

Of those males on probation, 77% were for a felony when identified characteristics were known.

43% of felony probationers were serving time for a violent crime. This percentage increases significantly when considering criminal history.

66% of individuals on parole were serving time for a violent offense. This figure is higher when criminal history is included.

Felonies and violent crimes are forming a growing portion of parole and probation caseloads.

Crime in America.Net, recognized by Chat GPT as one of the “Top 10 Sources for Crime in America,” is based on primary statistical sources with respected secondary analysis.

Author

Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.

 

He has served as a Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention and Statistics at the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse, Director of Information Services at the National Crime Prevention Council, and an Adjunct Associate Professor of Criminology and Public Affairs at the University of Maryland, University College. He is also a former police officer and retired senior federal spokesperson.

 

He advised presidential and gubernatorial campaigns and the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. He has led successful state anti-crime media campaigns.

 

With 35 years of directing award-winning public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies, he has been interviewed thousands of times by national news outlets, often focusing on crime statistics and research. He created the first state and federal podcasting series and developed a unique style of government proactive public relations.

 

He holds a Certificate of Advanced Study from The Johns Hopkins University.

 

He is the author of ”Success With The Media: Everything You Need To Survive Reporters and Your Organization,” available on Amazon and in other bookstores.

 

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A detailed overview of recent crime rates is available at Violent and Property Crime Rates In The U.S.

Quote

New Jersey Spotlight News: “Plumeri told lawmakers during budget hearings that parole officers must know where a parolee resides and maintain regular communication for public safety. He emphasized that parolees are informed about the necessity of adhering to all conditions, with the risk of revocation if non-compliance occurs.”

Plumeri stated, “The simplification of technical parole violations is more complex than it appears. We take public safety extremely seriously and do not casually violate individuals. Our actions concerning violations are significant and follow steps that we have carefully considered.”

Article

The data on parole and probation can be intricate. I aim to provide some clarity.

Below is a recent collection of annual data from states and the federal government, submitted to the US Department of Justice via the Bureau of Justice Statistics for 2023.

“Parole” encompasses mandatory or supervisory releases when legal detention is no longer possible. Traditional parole is a discretionary release by a parole commission.

Federal corrections do not offer parole. Inmates serve 85% of their sentences and are supervised for the remaining 15%.

The report includes state-specific data, highlighting significant differences in the number of individuals completing community supervision compared to incarceration or other statuses. These numbers are influenced by state size.

Note

COVID undoubtedly affected the statistics below.

Observations 

The use of incarceration and the decision to release individuals on probation, parole, or mandatory release are highly contentious.

There are significant disagreements regarding responses to supervision violations. Numerous media articles and advocacy papers argue that the country overuses incarceration and imposes overly strict community supervision rules.

A ten-year Bureau of Justice Statistics study shows 82% of released prisoners were arrested at least once within ten years. Offenders committed more than two million new crimes, with 61% returning to prison within a decade for a parole or probation violation or a new sentence.

While Bureau of Justice Statistics data on probation violations is dated, it reveals many violations. Within three years of sentencing, 62% faced disciplinary hearings for probation condition violations or were arrested for another felony. Additionally, within three years, 46% were incarcerated or had absconded.

Technical violations: Although some publications claim many individuals return to prison for minor community supervision violations (e.g., missing appointments), the Bureau of Justice Statistics reports that most are returned for new crimes, not technical violations.

For further insights, see the ChatGPT analysis on technical violations below my conclusions, along with U.S. Sentencing Commission data.

In 2023, 64% of adults exiting parole (and mandatory release) with a known exit type “successfully” completed their term, indicating a disconnect between “successful” completion and those arrested and incarcerated post-release.

It’s crucial to understand that caseloads for community supervision are large, typically 200-300 to one agent. Intensive supervision often involves two brief face-to-face meetings monthly.

Critics argue that the supervision terms are overly harsh, yet this contradicts the reality of two monthly meetings, as most offenders receive even less supervision. Many (in administrative caseloads) receive minimal to no supervision.

In my experience as a justice agency spokesperson, offenders with numerous technical violations (e.g., failing to report for supervision, causing community disturbances, positive drug tests, non-payment of fines or restitution) often “successfully” complete supervision.

The number of offenders on community supervision for felonies or violent crimes is substantial. Parole and probation agents are under significant pressure to effectively supervise offenders while managing very large caseloads.

The era of supervising minor offenders while others were incarcerated is over.

Governors and advocates hesitate to allocate funds for prisons or returning offenders to prison for parole and probation violations. According to a chart in the full report, completions of parole rose by about 5% from 2013 to 2023.

At the end of 2023, the parole population was nearly 23% lower than at the end of 2019. This is surprising, given that progressive publications advocate for increased parole. However, the high reoffending rate and the attention from violent crimes make correctional administrators cautious.

While serving as the director of public information for the Maryland Department of Public Safety, I managed a case involving an individual released from prison who murdered a State Trooper and had over 70 supervision violations.

The reduced use of parole likely reflects the percentage of the prison population serving time for violent offenses, with 66% of males fitting this category. Including criminal history raises this percentage significantly.

According to US Sentencing Commission data, violent offenders have the highest recidivism rates, possibly leading to fewer paroles and more mandatory releases.

It is important to recognize that mandatory releases have, by far, the highest recidivism rate.

Summary of Bureau of Justice Statistics Data

An estimated 3,772,000 adults were under community supervision at the end of 2023, marking a 0.7% increase from 3,744,100 on January 1, 2023.

This change resulted from a rise in the number of adults on probation, who constituted 82% of the community supervision population at year’s end.

The probation population grew 1.3% during 2023, from 3,064,200 to 3,103,400.

The number of adults on parole decreased from 700,800 to 680,400 (down 2.9%) in 2023.

In 2023, 1 in 70 adult U.S. residents were under community supervision.

The adult parole population continued its decline, which began in 2020.

The total adult community supervision population increased by 0.7% during 2023, but it has decreased by 23% since 2013 when considering comparable probation agencies.

From 2013 to 2023, the parole population in the United States dropped by 20%.

When analyzing comparable agency populations, the probation population decreased by 24% between 2013 and 2023.

In 2023, the parole population declined for the third consecutive year (down 2.9%).

At the end of 2023, the parole population was nearly 23% lower than at the end of 2019.

In 2023, 1 in 70 adult U.S. residents, or 1,433 per 100,000, were under community supervision.

The parole rate continued to decline, from 268 per 100,000 adult U.S. residents in 2022 to 258 per 100,000 in 2023.

At the end of 2023, 1 in 387 adults in the United States was under parole supervision.

Numbers And Rates On Parole And Probation

The number of offenders on parole and probation has significantly decreased, from nearly 4,750,000 in 2013 to roughly 3,800,000 in 2023. 

The rate of offenders on parole and probation fell from approximately 2,000 per 100,000 to around 1,400 per 100,000.

The rate of parole declined significantly from close to 350 per 100,000 to about 250 per 100,000.

In 2023, 1 in 70 U.S. adults was on community supervision, compared to nearly 1 in 50 in 2013. I recall when it was approximately 1 in 40 in previous years.

Successful Completions

In 2023, successful completions of probation accounted for 59% of exits among adults with a known exit type.

Exits due to incarceration of adults previously under felony probation supervision (21%) during 2023 were more than double those under misdemeanor probation (9%) when the exit type was known.

64% of adults who exited parole during 2023 with a known exit type successfully completed their parole term.

About 29% of known parole exits were due to incarceration in 2023, a slight increase from 2022 (27%).

77% of males on probation were for a felony when characteristics were known.

43% of felony probationers were serving time for a violent crime.

66% of those on parole were serving time for a violent offense.

For adults on parole supervision in 2023 with a known maximum sentence, 90% were sentenced to more than one year of incarceration, thus a felony.

Chart (click to enlarge)

Chart (click to enlarge)

Appendix: Use Of ChatGPT and Google

 

Caseloads: Chat GPT observation: Your comments on caseload pressure (200–300 to 1), intensive supervision involving only two face-to-face contacts per month, and minimal supervision for low-risk or administrative cases are well supported by academic literature and internal agency audits.

 

Technical Violations: ChatGPT observation: Although the Bureau of Justice Statistics has published comprehensive recidivism studies of released prisoners—including data showing about 83% are rearrested for new crimes within nine years—comparable national data for probationers is much older.

 

The most comprehensive BJS study of felony probationers, examining cases from the late 1980s, found that within three years of sentencing, 62% had either a disciplinary hearing for violating probation conditions or were arrested for a new felony. Additionally, 46% had been incarcerated or had absconded. No national update has been produced since, leaving probation outcomes far less documented than prison recidivism.

 

BJS’s “rearrest” data shows the vast majority of arrests after release are for new crimes, not supervision violations.

 

Older BJS data suggested about one-quarter of prison returns were for technical violations. However, many cases might have involved new crimes that prosecutors chose not to formally pursue, leaving parole or probation officials to act instead. In practice, the percentage of offenders sent back to prison solely for non-criminal technical violations—such as missed appointments or failed drug tests—appears to be considerably smaller than often reported.

 

 

ChatGPT Observations: While the Commission clarified that age did not limit the study population, the sample was narrower than the general federal prison population. However, the results reinforce the broader point that while technical violations exist, most returns to custody result from new criminal behavior rather than minor rule infractions.

 

BJS Use Of The Term Imputed

 

When the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) uses the term “imputed” in correctional data, they refer to a statistical method used to fill in missing or incomplete data—often from states, agencies, or facilities that failed to submit some or all of their required information.

 

ChatGPT

 

The article was fact-checked by ChatGPT. 

 

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