Trump goes to China as Iran war smolders : NPR

President Donald Trump’s state visit to China, initially postponed due to the conflict with Iran, is scheduled to commence on Tuesday. However, the situation with Iran remains unresolved, with the ceasefire being described by Trump as “on massive life support” and the conflict persisting in a precarious state.

“It’s remarkable that President Trump is going to China given these circumstances,” stated Kurt Campbell, chairman of The Asia Group and a leading adviser on China during the Biden administration. “It’s equally surprising that China is willing to host him.”

Despite the close alliance and trade relationship between China and Iran, and the recent U.S. military actions against Iran, including bombings and a blockade, the state visit is proceeding as planned. Questions linger over China’s potential support for Iran, yet both nations seem to see value in the meeting.

Campbell suggested that both countries have compelling reasons to meet, highlighting a mutual interest in maintaining a balanced relationship amid complexities. A senior U.S. official, speaking anonymously, questioned why Trump shouldn’t continue with this trip and fulfill his presidential duties.

The visit will feature grand ceremonies and discussions on trade, with the potential establishment of a “U.S.-China Board of Trade” to manage their challenging bilateral relationship. AI technology discussions are also anticipated to facilitate “channels of deconfliction.”

Last fall in South Korea, Trump and Xi Jinping eased tensions in the escalating trade war, with Trump later describing the meeting on Air Force One as “a 12 out of 10.”

Trump, promoting the upcoming visit, emphasized the need for a grand display, reflecting on the warm treatment he received during his last trip to China. The itinerary includes a welcome ceremony, bilateral meetings, a state banquet, and a visit to the Temple of Heaven, all within less than 48 hours.

A notable delegation of U.S. corporate executives, including Apple’s Tim Cook and Tesla’s Elon Musk, will accompany Trump, with expectations of fruitful deals that could benefit American workers and bolster national security.

Iran war’s influence

The original focus of the visit was to sustain the trade truce, but the ongoing conflict with Iran now dominates the agenda. Lyle Goldstein of Brown University’s China Initiative suggested that the war will overshadow other topics, with Trump eager to resolve the matter.

Iran’s foreign minister recently visited China, credited with encouraging Iran to accept the initial ceasefire, now considered fragile. Goldstein speculated Trump might seek Xi’s help to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz and negotiating peace.

Ali Wyne from the International Crisis Group noted that the Iran conflict has unexpectedly strengthened Xi’s position, as the U.S. may depend on China’s rare earth minerals for military supplies depleted by the war.

Despite the war, Trump’s relationship with Xi remains amicable. He downplayed concerns about China’s possible assistance to Iran, citing a recent letter from Xi denying such actions.

While China heavily relies on Iranian oil, it has been somewhat shielded from the economic impacts of the Strait of Hormuz closure.

Potential deals

Trump’s admiration for Xi and his leadership contrasts with previous U.S. presidents who criticized China’s human rights record and warned against interference in Taiwan. Dennis Wilder from Georgetown University noted Trump’s confidence in negotiating favorable deals with China.

Expectations are high for China to announce purchases of U.S. farm goods and Boeing planes, alongside discussions to solidify the trade truce. However, Melanie Hart of the Global China Hub indicated preparations for the visit are ongoing, with details still being finalized.

The proposed U.S.-China Board of Trade, if agreed upon, would require further development. Wilder highlighted the potential for four meetings between Trump and Xi this year, including a planned state visit to the U.S. in the fall.

“This year could see intense dialogue aimed at resetting the U.S.-China relationship,” Wilder stated, noting the significant evolution since Trump’s first visit nearly a decade ago. At that time, China aimed to position itself as a confident competitor to the U.S., a stance now recognized by American officials, including Trump.

The White House’s national security strategy document, released last year, acknowledges China as a “near peer,” emphasizing the ongoing global competition between the two powers.