Senator Bill Cassidy from Louisiana is facing a challenging political battle.
The Republican senator is struggling to maintain his position as he faces two primary opponents who are leveraging MAGA dissatisfaction over his 2021 vote to impeach President Donald Trump. In Louisiana, there is a growing sentiment that Cassidy may not be able to overcome significant opposition and secure a spot in the run-off in the primary election on Saturday, based on insights from nearly a dozen interviews with GOP officials, lawmakers, and strategists in the state.
If Cassidy finishes in third place and loses, it would be a shocking defeat for the two-term senator and a substantial victory for Trump in his ongoing conflict with Republicans who oppose him.
“When it comes to betraying Trump with that impeachment vote, the memories are very long,” stated Kevin Berken, the Jefferson Davis Parish GOP chair, who opposes Cassidy and is inclined to support Fleming.
Most polls indicate Cassidy is trailing, positioned in third place behind Trump-endorsed Representative Julia Letlow and State Treasurer John Fleming, both MAGA candidates. Cassidy faced exclusion from the state Republican Party following his impeachment vote. Trump has criticized him as “very disloyal,” urging Louisiana Republicans to remove him.
The Louisiana GOP primary is the latest stage in Trump’s series of retaliations this month, with several of his prominent opponents seeking reelection. The series began in Indiana, where Trump and his allies successfully removed five state lawmakers as retribution for refusing to redraw congressional lines to favor the GOP. After Cassidy’s race, Kentucky Representative Thomas Massie faces his primary on May 19.
Despite this, Trump hasn’t taken significant action to support his preferred candidate in Louisiana.
On Saturday, he reiterated his endorsement for Letlow, describing her as “a winner who will NEVER let you down” in a post on Truth Social. However, aside from a few online posts, Trump has largely remained silent, despite having pushed her into the race with his endorsement in January. He has withheld his substantial $300 million-plus MAGA Inc. war chest and did not make an appearance to support her during the campaign.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment.
In his Saturday post on Truth Social, Trump criticized Cassidy again: “He turned around and voted to IMPEACH me for something that has now proven to be total ‘bullshit!'”
“That is not something I think about,” Cassidy told POLITICO in a brief interview Saturday. “That is a decision I made five years ago. What I think about is the present and the future of my state. If somebody wants to focus on that, if my opponent is focused on that, she’s thinking about five years ago. I’m thinking about five years from now.”
The Cassidy campaign acknowledges the challenges they face but remains optimistic about the senator’s prospects due to his congressional record. Campaign adviser Mark Harris mentioned this week that their data suggests Cassidy may not finish first but is well-positioned to qualify for the run-off, partly due to a significant number of non-party voters participating in Louisiana’s closed primary.
“It’s sort of Julia’s to lose in the first round,” Harris said. “Our data indicates we have a very strong chance to put together a winning coalition, and then [win] in the run-off.”
Cassidy’s actions frustrating MAGA extend beyond the impeachment vote. He upset the MAGA loyalists — and the emerging Make America Healthy Again coalition — by sharply questioning Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on vaccines during his Senate confirmation. He further angered the MAHA movement by helping block the nomination of health influencer Casey Means for U.S. Surgeon General.
His actions have led the Kennedy-aligned MAHA PAC to pledge $1 million in support of Letlow to remove Cassidy — though the impact of this spending is yet to be determined.
“MAHA issues are in fact central to this race and to races all around the country, where in many cases they poll higher than most other issues for voters, especially for the all-important undecided voters,” MAHA PAC leader Tony Lyons previously told POLITICO in a text. “It’s true that Big Pharma and big food would like to convince voters otherwise, but Julia Letlow is a strong insurgent candidate and she will win.”
Nonpartisan polling shows Cassidy trailing both Fleming and Letlow, with an Emerson College Survey from late April putting him at 21 percent support, behind Fleming at 28 percent and Letlow at 27 percent.
“What we’ve known all along is now becoming clear to everyone watching this race: Julia Letlow has the support, the momentum, and the trust of Louisiana Republicans,” said Katherine Thordahl, Letlow campaign spokesperson, in a statement. “Unfortunately for Bill Cassidy, Louisianans have never forgotten Bill Cassidy’s vote to convict President Trump, which remains the defining contrast in this race.”
Cassidy’s path to a run-off isn’t entirely closed.
He benefits from the anti-Cassidy MAGA vote being divided between Letlow and Fleming, who has garnered strong grassroots backing throughout his campaign. Fleming has positioned himself as the most conservative candidate in the race, citing his record as a member of the House Freedom Caucus. He also served as a White House aide during Trump’s first administration as deputy chief of staff.
“Neither one of them can claim a stronger conservative voting record,” Fleming said in an interview. “Between them, I stand alone so I think that’s the real driver of my lead on this.”
Berken expressed in an interview that he is inclined to support Fleming due to his conservative credentials. “I know what I get with John Fleming, and even though President Trump endorsed Julia, I think he did that at Governor Landry’s behest,” he said, referencing GOP Gov. Jeff Landry’s campaign to elect Letlow to the Senate.
Letlow and Fleming have spent the final days of the campaign targeting each other, indicating they anticipate facing each other in the run-off — or that they think Cassidy may unexpectedly advance if they continue to split the MAGA vote.
Cassidy, meanwhile, is focusing his attacks on Letlow in the final stretch. He has tried to portray her as not conservative enough, dubbing her “Liberal Letlow” and criticizing her for previous comments supporting diversity initiatives in higher education. Letlow has since renounced those programs, claiming they’ve been taken over by the left.
By focusing so much on Letlow, “Cassidy’s committing murder suicide,” said one Louisiana GOP strategist who remains unaffiliated in the race and was granted anonymity to speak candidly. The strategist predicted Fleming would secure the most votes.
Letlow, in response to the negative campaigning from both her opponents, has centered her campaign around Trump’s endorsement, presenting it as evidence that she meets the MAGA standard.
“What I’m hearing is this actually looks pretty, pretty tight, with a lot of undecideds right now,” said Jamey Sandefur, chair of the Livingston Parish GOP. “I’m getting the sense that a lot of people are walking into the booth and deciding when they get there.”
“I’ve always thought that endorsements don’t really matter, but I have heard a lot of people tell me that the Trump endorsement of Congresswoman Letlow is going to be the deciding factor for them,” he said. “So that’s playing in the race a lot more than I had expected.”
Adam Wren contributed reporting.
