The Republican Party is experiencing internal divisions regarding support for Israel, with President Donald Trump’s most ardent supporters largely standing by the U.S. ally.
New findings from The POLITICO Poll reveal that self-identified “MAGA” Trump voters are more supportive of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and its ties with the U.S. compared to those who voted for Trump but do not identify as MAGA.
According to the survey, nearly half of MAGA Trump voters express support for Israel and approve of its current government’s actions, whereas only 29 percent of non-MAGA Trump voters share this view. A plurality of MAGA voters (41 percent) believe Israel is justified in its military campaign in Gaza, in contrast to 31 percent of non-MAGA voters. Additionally, 24 percent of MAGA voters feel that Israel was initially justified but has now gone too far, compared to 31 percent of non-MAGA voters.
MAGA voters generally maintain their support for Israel, even as internal party divisions grow. These emerging fractures could significantly impact the future of U.S.-Israel relations and the GOP’s ability to maintain the coalition that helped Trump return to the White House during a challenging midterm election.
Middle Eastern politics have shifted rapidly in recent years. Support for Israel has historically divided the Democratic Party, with some Democrats attributing their loss of the White House in 2024 to the Biden administration’s approach to Gaza. Among Americans who voted for Vice President Kamala Harris, a 35 percent plurality believe Israel’s initial actions in Gaza were justified but have since gone too far, while 27 percent argue the military campaign was never justified and 28 percent remain unsure.
Only 10 percent of Harris voters believe that Israel is still justified in its Gaza war actions, highlighting a significant drop in Democratic support for a military campaign that once had backing from the Biden administration.
Republicans were initially united in support of Israel following Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack. However, with the ongoing war with Iran and rising concerns over Trump’s foreign interventions, Israel’s standing is uncertain among the GOP’s non-MAGA faction and younger conservatives. Non-MAGA voters are 10 points more likely than MAGA Trump voters to perceive the Israeli government as having excessive influence over U.S. foreign policy, according to a survey by Public First.
These divisions have become more visible, with notable Republicans such as Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and Steve Bannon criticizing America’s close ties with Israel, especially amidst escalating tensions in Iran. Conversely, many Republican Congress members, along with conservative figures like Laura Loomer and Ben Shapiro, continue to defend the president’s pro-Israel stance.
“There is a sentiment right now within the Republican Party of, ‘America First,’ let’s get out of all of the conflicts in the world, let’s not be committed to those conflicts,” commented Amnon Cavari, an associate professor at Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy at Reichman University in Israel.
The poll reflects this sentiment, with 29 percent of Trump 2024 voters expressing that the president has overly focused on international matters at the expense of domestic issues.
MAGA Trump voters are more accepting of Trump’s international agenda, with just 19 percent voicing concerns about excessive focus on foreign affairs. This concern doubles among non-MAGA Trump voters, reaching 40 percent.
The Israel issue represents a crucial point of contention within the GOP, with POLITICO’s polling consistently showing a divide between Trump voters who identify as “MAGA” and those who do not. This divide is apparent in opinions on Trump’s deportation campaign, the war in Iran, and his economic policies.
Generational divides on Israel
The POLITICO Poll highlights pronounced generational divides among Republicans concerning Israel, with younger Trump voters more inclined than older ones to question the U.S.’s close relationship with Israel.
Thirty-two percent of Trump voters under 35 believe the U.S. is too closely aligned with Israel’s government, contrasted with 11 percent of Trump voters over 55.
When asked whether the U.S. should distance itself from Israel, even when facing common threats, or maintain a close alliance, the generational divide persists. Nearly half of Trump voters aged 18 to 34 favor distancing, while only 13 percent of those over 55 agree.
James Fishback, a 31-year-old Republican gubernatorial candidate in Florida known for his critical stance on Israel, has gained traction among younger “America First” advocates. He suggests the GOP is heading for a “massive reckoning” over its position on Israel, with significant developments expected this November and in the primaries that follow.
“And then we’re set up for the ultimate proxy war on this Israel question in the [2028] Republican primary, and then in the general,” he said. “I just don’t see a staunchly pro-Israel candidate becoming the Republican nominee.”
The generational divide within the GOP mirrors similar schisms in the Democratic Party, where younger voters also express stronger opposition to Israel’s influence and actions, partly driven by the rising death toll and humanitarian crisis in Gaza, polling shows.
“The fact that [Israel has] lost support among young Democrats is not surprising,” said Cavari. “The fact that they are losing rapidly among young Republicans is especially alarming, and the trend is very clear.”
The AIPAC factor
The role of pro-Israel groups in competitive primaries has become contentious across party lines.
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), a significant advocacy organization aiming to elect pro-Israel candidates in both parties, has faced criticism for its involvement in Democratic primaries in New Jersey and Illinois. AIPAC is also active in Republican primaries, causing unease among some GOP voters.
The GOP is starting to show divisions over AIPAC’s involvement, with MAGA Trump voters 14 points more supportive of AIPAC’s political activities than their non-MAGA counterparts, who are 11 points more likely to oppose AIPAC’s efforts.
Deryn Sousa, a spokesperson for AIPAC, stated that “millions of Americans are members of AIPAC because they want to strengthen an alliance that advances America’s interests and values, and we will stay focused on building the largest possible bipartisan pro-Israel coalition in Congress.”
AIPAC has supported several GOP incumbents, including Sens. John Cornyn in Texas and Bill Cassidy in Louisiana, who are considered at risk of losing their seats. The organization, along with the Republican Jewish Coalition Victory Fund, has invested millions in efforts to unseat GOP Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky, partly due to his opposition to aid for Israel and attempts to limit Trump’s war powers in Iran and other regions.
Despite AIPAC becoming a polarizing issue among politically engaged voters in both parties, a 30 percent plurality of Americans are either unaware of the organization or lack sufficient knowledge to form an opinion.
“Polls will go up and down,” commented Patrick Dorton, the spokesperson for AIPAC’s super PAC, United Democracy Project. “Obviously we’re in a post-Gaza, Iran war environment.”
According to Dorton, AIPAC’s electoral arm will continue to be “substantive in making the case for the U.S.-Israel relationship.”
