The Democratic Party is facing a crucial test in Tuesday’s primaries, as it seeks to chart a course forward amidst a lack of clear leadership. Key races, from California’s gubernatorial contest to the Senate primary in Iowa, as well as House contests in New Jersey and the Los Angeles mayoral race, will reveal the types of candidates Democratic voters prefer.
Despite widespread frustration, the party is grappling with comprehensive losses in 2024. This primary marks the start of a month filled with internal Democratic challenges stretching from Maine to Nevada, testing the party’s future direction. While May was dominated by President Donald Trump’s primary revenge efforts, June centers on the Democrats navigating uncertain terrain.
Here are five key areas POLITICO is monitoring tonight:
Can Democrats Secure the California Governor’s Race?
The race for governor in California, the nation’s largest state, has been turbulent, especially after sexual assault allegations forced then-frontrunner Rep. Eric Swalwell out of Congress. Xavier Becerra, a former Health Secretary, has since risen to the top of the polls, a development causing unease among some of his previous colleagues in the Biden administration and Congress.
The current question is whether Becerra will face Trump-backed Republican Steve Hilton or if billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer, who is self-funding his campaign on a progressive platform, can secure a spot in a Democrat-on-Democrat runoff. Steyer has invested an unprecedented $195 million into his campaign, concluding with a harsh attack ad targeting scandals involving Becerra’s staff. Becerra has demanded the ad be withdrawn.
If Democrats manage to lock the GOP out of the race, internal party conflicts could intensify, a situation the party hopes to avoid. Additionally, a Democratic lockout might reduce GOP turnout in crucial House battleground districts.
Will Anti-Establishment Candidates Triumph?
In Iowa’s Democratic Senate primary, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has become a contentious figure. State Sen. Zach Wahls has criticized Schumer’s leadership, while state Rep. Josh Turek benefits from financial backing from Schumer-aligned groups.
A Wahls victory would highlight Schumer’s declining approval among party voters—47 percent of likely Democratic midterm voters desire new leadership in the Senate, according to a POLITICO poll. Conversely, a Turek win would provide the establishment with their preferred candidate as they aim to win a Senate race in Iowa for the first time in two decades, following the collapse of their chosen candidate, Gov. Janet Mills, in Maine.
Across the country, Democrats are launching generationally-focused campaigns, underscoring the party’s leadership void. In California’s 22nd District, Randy Villegas, supported by David Hogg and the Working Families Party, is challenging establishment-favored Dr. Jasmeet Bains. Rep. Doris Matsui faces a younger primary challenger, Mai Vang, backed by Hogg, in the state’s 7th District. In the 32nd District, Rep. Brad Sherman faces several challengers, including a former staffer, all emphasizing generational change.
The race to succeed former Speaker Nancy Pelosi also emphasizes leadership status. Progressive Saikat Chakrabarti, a former staffer for Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, has self-funded millions into his campaign. Pelosi supports San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, while state Sen. Scott Wiener is also competing for the Democratic nomination.
A strong performance by these leadership-averse candidates would fuel ongoing party debates, while losses might indicate that voters, although discontent with current leaders, are not ready for change.
Key Battleground House Races
California’s 22nd District is not alone in its competitive nature. The state’s 48th District also faces a challenging primary to replace retiring GOP Rep. Darrell Issa, a seat critical for a House majority this fall.
“This is not an easy race for a Democrat by any means,” said Marni von Wilpert, a moderate candidate in the district, last month. Von Wilpert faces Ammar Campa-Najjar, whom Republicans are portraying as too liberal for the San Diego-based district.
In New Jersey’s 7th District, four Democrats are vying to challenge two-term Republican Tom Kean Jr. This district, New Jersey’s most competitive, has gained attention due to Kean’s two-month absence from Congress and lack of public appearances due to an undisclosed health issue.
Republicans aim to see the most left-leaning candidates advance to the November elections, as they struggle to maintain their narrow House majority. Despite this, Democrats remain optimistic about their chances, regardless of who advances.
Performance of Anti-Israel Democrats
As Democrats continue to wrestle with Israel’s conflict with Hamas, several prominent anti-Israel candidates are on the ballot Tuesday. In New Jersey’s 12th District, 13 Democrats are competing to replace retiring progressive Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman.
The primary winner is almost certain to win the general election in this heavily Democratic district. Although no independent public polls have been released, Dr. Adam Hamawy, a plastic surgeon credited by Sen. Tammy Duckworth for saving her life in Iraq, is considered the frontrunner. Hamawy, who volunteered in Gaza and has criticized Israel, has faced negative headlines due to his past association as a medical student with terrorist Omar Abdel-Rahman. However, this contrasts with his extensive Army service and role as a 9/11 first responder.
Israel is also a crucial topic in some California primaries. The Democratic Majority for Israel PAC has spent $586,000 against Campa-Najjar in CA-48 and $1.6 million to support Bains in CA-22, according to AdImpact.
Opponents of Chan accuse her of benefiting from spending by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, linking PAC money from AIPAC to a PAC supporting Chan’s campaign.
Democrats as Spoilers in Deep-Red Senate Races?
With the Democratic Party’s approval ratings struggling, particularly in red states, left-leaning independents are launching bids in regions where the party is not viable. However, Democrats are not stepping aside, potentially splitting votes against longshot independents in November.
In Montana, GOP-linked groups have spent over $5 million in the Democratic Senate primary, aiming to support state Rep. Reilly Neill, who refuses to step aside for independent Seth Bodnar, backed by former Democratic Sen. Jon Tester’s staff.
Republicans are concerned that Democrat Alani Bankhead might withdraw for Bodnar, although she has stated her intention to run regardless.
In South Dakota, unopposed Democrat Julian Beaudion has vowed not to step aside for independent Brian Bengs as both aim to unseat GOP Sen. Mike Rounds.
Blake Jones and Matthew Friedman contributed to this report.
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