Making Sense of a Turbulent Global Climate and Clean Energy Landscape

Nearly a decade has passed since the Paris Agreement became effective in November 2016, and the current state of global climate efforts is far from what many climate activists anticipated.

The world is almost certain to surpass 1.5°C of warming, and climate impacts are worsening rapidly across the globe. Meanwhile, the United States, historically the largest emitter, under the authoritarian Trump administration, has aggressively attacked both US and international climate policies. Geopolitical tensions are escalating, marked by the illegal war against Iran, trade disputes, and various humanitarian crises, all contributing to an economic burden from the resulting fossil energy crisis.

The call for a safer and more equitable world has never been clearer. Despite the destructive tendencies of some governments and the relentless greed of the fossil fuel sector, progress in climate action continues, with renewable energy growth now inevitable.

As I prepare to attend the forthcoming UN climate meeting in Bonn, Germany, from June 8-18, six key themes dominate my thoughts:

1: The durability of global multilateral climate action

In January, President Trump withdrew from the Paris Agreement for a second time, reaching a new low by also abandoning the foundational UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. However, the global community remains committed to the UN climate talks. Progress, as witnessed at COP30 in Brazil last year, is challenging and slower than necessary, but no other nation has followed the U.S. lead so far.

The routine exchanges in climate negotiations and preparations for COP31, dubbed the ‘COP of the Future,’ counteract the harmful theatrics of the Trump administration. Yet, complacency must not be mistaken for adequacy amidst the worsening climate crisis. Durability is vital, but the international climate framework must also yield significant results. Political leaders, both at Bonn and leading up to COP31 in Türkiye, must show true dedication to resolving differences and resisting the harmful influence of fossil fuel interests to achieve crucial ambitious outcomes.

2: The rapid and dangerous acceleration in climate impacts

The global manifestation of climate change is increasingly alarming. A recent prolonged heatwave in India and Pakistan led to numerous deaths and left millions in perilous conditions, exemplifying the dangerous world birthed by political inertia and continued fossil fuel combustion. Europe also faced record-breaking deadly extreme heat in May. Super typhoon Sinlaku, an unusual early-season Cat 5-equivalent storm, wreaked havoc in the Micronesian Pacific region in April.

We are amidst a period of climate-induced droughts, floods, extreme heat, intensifying storms, and water supply threats—all compounded by a global hunger crisis, poised to worsen. A potentially strong El Niño forecasted later this year could result in record temperatures in 2027, altered rainfall patterns, and further strain on global food resources.

In the U.S., the UCS team is closely observing Danger Season, the period when climate impacts are most severe across the nation. Thus far, there have been intense early-season heatwaves, an early onset of an active wildfire season, record-low snowpack, and drought conditions.

3: The unstoppable ascendance of renewable energy

Despite the Trump administration’s opposition to renewable energy in the U.S., and its efforts to bolster fossil fuels, data indicates that globally, clean energy is expanding rapidly and is even beginning to replace fossil fuels.

Recent analyses from Ember, IRENA, and the IEA highlight a remarkable global surge in solar energy, a trend also evident in the U.S.. The sharp decline in solar and battery storage costs has rapidly made them the preferred electricity sources, surpassing fossil fuels in many areas. Notably, the Global Clean Energy Monitor reports that by 2025, in China and India, renewable energy met most new demand and reduced coal reliance. Solar energy also played a critical role during India’s recent heatwave peak electricity demand.

While the fossil energy crisis from the US-Israel conflict against Iran is compelling some countries into short-term fossil fuel commitments, it underscores the imperative of swiftly moving away from the economic turbulence of fossil energy price volatility. These challenges are particularly severe for lower-income nations and those dependent on disrupted liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, where people struggle to afford basic needs, including food and energy. Globally, energy affordability issues are exacerbated—further compounded in the U.S. by additional Trump administration measures. High fertilizer prices, due to the conflict’s disruption of the fossil energy supply chain, are also severely impacting farmers and driving up food costs.

4: The resurgence in demands for a transition away from fossil fuels

There has been a notable resurgence in calls for a global shift from fossil fuels to clean energy, evident at the April Santa Marta conference, and prominently featured on the agenda for the upcoming UNFCCC meeting in Bonn. Fenceline communities, disproportionately affected by pollution from fossil fuels and related infrastructure, alongside climate activists, have long advocated for a rapid, fair, and funded fossil fuel phaseout. While a transition away from fossil fuels was included in the final agreement at COP 28, it seemed policymakers had been swayed by the fossil fuel industry once more, stalling real action.

This changed at COP30 in Brazil last November, where the issue surged to prominence. Although the final outcome was underwhelming, pressure from civil society secured a just transition mechanism. The frustration in Belém has renewed focus on practical measures to reduce fossil fuels, increase renewables, and ensure that the transition’s economic and public health benefits reach all communities, including historically marginalized ones.

Within the UNFCCC, discussions initiated by COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago continue to develop a Roadmap for Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels in a Just, Orderly, and Equitable Manner. At Bonn, further insights from a process soliciting input from all parties are expected, along with potential agreement options at COP31. Additionally, the Santa Marta conference countries have announced a second conference in Tuvalu, co-hosted by Tuvalu and Ireland, for the following year.

A new report from IRENA outlines the necessary infrastructure and technological changes for this transition: Rapid electrification and renewable deployment will require major expansion of grids, storage, and system flexibility, alongside stronger system integration and strategic planning for phasing out fossil fuel infrastructure.

5: The undermining, and defense, of climate science

The Trump administration continues its anti-science stance, intensifying its assault on federally funded climate science, targeting scientific agencies, personnel, data, and resources—including attacks on NOAA and NCAR.

UCS is actively resisting the Trump administration’s science attacks, alongside many in the scientific community.

The administration is consistently cutting investments in scientific research at universities and other institutions. A recent proposal suggests political appointees would control all decisions on federally funded scientific research, severely undermining scientific integrity. Additionally, the Trump administration has withdrawn from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and seeks to prevent US federal scientists from collaborating internationally. The administration’s dissemination of lies and propaganda about science mirrors the fossil fuel industry’s long-standing tactics.

These actions are alarming for US-based scientists and are significantly impacting the US climate science community, a long-valued component of the global ecosystem. Global scientists are concerned about this swift erosion of US climate science. Organizations like the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) are striving to address these needs, but completely bridging the gap is challenging, if not impossible.

This situation highlights the need for a resilient global scientific enterprise that serves people worldwide, requiring collaborative, well-funded science without borders.

A recent WMO bulletin on El Niño exemplifies this collaboration: The WMO El Niño/La Niña Update is prepared through a collaborative effort between the WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA, and is based on contributions from experts worldwide, inter alia, of the following institutions: Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Centro Internacional para la Investigación del Fenómeno El Niño (CIIFEN), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) and Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Services of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States of America (USA), European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Météo-France, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), International Monsoons Project Office (IMPO), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), Met Office of the United Kingdom, Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS), WMO Global Producing Centres of Seasonal Prediction (GPCs-SP) including the Lead Centre for Seasonal Prediction Multi-Model Ensemble (LC-SPMME).

Isn’t that an exemplary model of global scientific collaboration?

6: The urgent need for climate finance

Transitioning to a climate-resilient world powered by clean energy requires redirecting trillions of dollars from fossil to clean energy. As climate impacts intensify, there is an urgent need for climate adaptation funding, long overlooked. Lower-income nations—where billions are on the frontlines of climate impact and millions lack access to modern energy—cannot achieve clean energy and climate resilience without support from wealthier nations responsible for most climate change. This is not charity but justice, and the only practical means for rapid global progress.

Richer nations have consistently failed to meet their climate finance commitments. Compounding this, the Trump administration’s cuts to USAID and other international programs have led to significant reductions in global development and health investments, including climate resilience and clean energy. Other countries, such as the UK and some European nations, are also falling short on climate finance commitments. This comes at a critical time for lower-income countries struggling with high energy costs and worsening climate impacts.

Climate finance should be a fundamental measure of international climate action. Advocates in the Global North must prioritize this domestically and pressure their policymakers to provide substantial finance, alongside efforts to reduce emissions and transition from fossil fuels.

Clearing a path through turbulence

The Trump administration’s disruption of global norms intersects with long-term economic and political trends, creating a turbulent geopolitical landscape—and accelerating a multipolar world order’s emergence, with new risks and opportunities.

No matter the actions of future U.S. administrations, the world has repeatedly learned that the United States can be an unreliable partner. This loss of credibility is sobering, especially since the U.S. is the largest historical contributor to emissions and the world’s wealthiest nation. However, it also allows progress to arise from new spaces, with new alliances and diverse motivations to embrace climate action.

At the upcoming climate negotiations in Bonn, countries must lay the groundwork for genuine progress at COP31—rooted in the latest climate science and climate justice—including reducing emissions, transitioning away from fossil fuels, enhancing climate resilience, and unlocking climate finance.

While today’s grim realities are undeniable, they cannot overshadow the real progress happening against all odds. And they cannot distract us from the brighter future needed for both people and the planet.