Americans are generally open to betting on events like the World Cup, weather patterns in Dallas, and the identity of the next James Bond through prediction markets.
However, many draw the line when it comes to political events.
Results from The POLITICO Poll indicate that a significant number of U.S. adults are opposed to the legalization of betting on political occurrences such as statements by President Donald Trump, his pardons, or the results of the 2028 presidential election.
Despite the prediction markets’ rapid ascension in mainstream media, finance, and politics, many Americans are still unfamiliar with them. Companies like Kalshi and Polymarket have introduced a wide array of betting opportunities, yet there remains unease about the proliferation of such wagers, especially those concerning Washington.
A survey by Public First, a U.K.-based polling firm, reveals that 44 percent of U.S. adults believe betting on election outcomes should be illegal. A similar portion expresses concern over betting on presidential statements or pardons.
“These markets are not for everybody,” remarked John Aristotle Phillips, head of the election-focused prediction market platform PredictIt. “People will object to some areas, while being more accepting of others.”
Supporters of prediction markets argue that politically focused bets provide valuable insights by reflecting collective public opinion. They claim these markets can aid consumers, corporations, and small businesses in managing financial risks associated with changes in government or legislation.
Nonetheless, the results add fuel to the arguments of critics who worry that betting millions on U.S. elections could undermine American democracy. Approximately $700 million has been wagered on the 2028 presidential election markets via Kalshi and Polymarket’s international platform.
“It’s a bad bet for democracy,” stated Sen. Jeff Merkley, a Democrat from Oregon, to POLITICO. “Election betting allows wealthy individuals to wager millions and potentially influence election outcomes through dark money, leading to deadly corruption in our elections.”
Kalshi declined to comment on the matter. Polymarket’s Deputy Chief Legal Officer, Olivia Chalos, stated that prediction markets have become essential sources of real-time information and forecasting, offering probability signals across various sectors including politics, sports, and economics. She noted that the company’s U.S.-regulated platform complies with the same regulations as other major financial exchanges.
Prediction markets are not a new phenomenon in the U.S. However, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) had long restricted their expansion into elections due to concerns about rampant betting within U.S. financial markets.
Then, weeks before Election Day 2024, a federal judge dismissed the CFTC’s objections to Kalshi’s proposal to allow substantial election wagers. This decision significantly boosted regulated political betting in the U.S., increasing its intensity.
Now, day traders, political enthusiasts, and Wall Street firms are increasingly engaging with prediction markets, wagering on an expanding array of events in sports, politics, and pop culture. Kalshi and Polymarket have collaborated with organizations like CNN, The Wall Street Journal’s publisher, and Major League Baseball, boasting valuations in the tens of billions. The CFTC has adopted a more favorable stance towards the industry’s expansion under Trump and its new chair, Michael Selig.
Despite their growth, prediction markets still face skepticism among Americans. Over 50 percent of Americans indicated they would not consider placing bets on these platforms, as reported by The POLITICO Poll.
Younger demographics, however, show more interest. According to the poll, 12 percent of respondents aged 18 to 24 years, and the same percentage of those aged 25 to 34, have participated in prediction market betting. Only 6 percent of the broader population reported doing so. Additionally, 30 percent of the 18-24 age group expressed interest in betting on prediction markets, compared to 17 percent overall.
Currently, sports dominate prediction market trading, a contentious issue. States, tribal organizations, and established gambling interests argue that these companies bypass sports-betting regulations, a claim firmly denied by prediction markets and the CFTC. (The POLITICO Poll found 28 percent of respondents believe the federal government should regulate these markets, against 15 percent favoring state regulation.)
Political wagers are also expanding, now covering more than just presidential elections, including down-ballot races, Cabinet secretary fates, and legislative outcomes. Analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence suggest these political markets could become key growth drivers for the industry, projecting a $266 billion trading volume by 2030, representing 27 percent of total platform volume compared to 10 percent in early 2025.
Caleb Davies, a seasoned prediction market trader from Minnesota, views political markets as crucial. While polls and analyses offer some insights into elections or pending legislation, Davies believes that “it’s not the same as getting a whole bunch of smart people betting money.” He emphasizes the importance of betting on major bills with significant economic implications, like the Affordable Care Act repeal.
“It’s a unique product,” Davies concluded.
Some offshore markets, such as Polymarket’s international platform, even allow trading related to events like the Iran war, though U.S.-regulated markets like Kalshi and Polymarket’s U.S. venue are prohibited by the CFTC from such topics. Most respondents believe betting on war and terrorism outcomes should be illegal.
The survey was conducted shortly after the Justice Department and CFTC charged a U.S. soldier for allegedly using confidential information to trade on the capture of then-Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro through Polymarket, a landmark case heightening insider trading concerns on Capitol Hill.
While war and terrorism bets’ unpopularity was expected by PredictIt’s Phillips, he believes political markets have a role within the prediction market space. For Phillips, these markets are not just for traders; they are valuable resources for newsrooms, campaign strategists, and the public seeking insights into presidential agendas, legislative progress, and election outcomes.
“We’re in the early innings,” he remarked. “There will be hundreds or thousands of prediction markets globally—some very specific to certain industries or activities and others much broader. Political prediction markets have their place.”
