When comparing footprints, is an elephant’s larger than a human’s? The answer varies based on the criteria used for measurement.
As humans continue to expand their presence across the African savanna, conflicts with wild elephants are becoming more frequent. Researchers from the United States and Namibia warn that a ‘turf war’ is imminent.
Over the past two decades, rapid changes in land use in Namibia, Botswana, and parts of Angola and Zambia have led to increasing conflicts between humans and elephants, posing risks to both parties.
Using public records, researchers have pinpointed three main factors contributing to the rise in human-elephant conflicts between 2004 and 2020. The increase in human populations and land use are primary drivers, with climate-induced water shortages also contributing. If these trends persist, machine learning models suggest that disputes over territory and resources will become more frequent and severe.
The international research team concludes, “We find that the area at high risk of human-elephant conflict increases by 33 to 100 percent by 2085.” They also note that “aggressive human land-use expansion leads to the most dramatic increases in conflict… “
This new data is critical for elephant conservation in southern Africa. Although African savanna elephant (Loxodonta africana) populations are gradually recovering from poaching, their habitats are diminishing. These elephants are a keystone species, playing a crucial role in the savanna ecosystem.
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Sadly, expanding roads and fences are directing elephants toward human settlements. In these areas, elephants have been known to raid crops, injure residents, damage infrastructure, and harm livestock. Such incidents can be devastating for communities and have led to the culling of elephants, which undermines local support for their conservation.
The study, led by Evan Patrick from the University of California, Santa Barbara, highlights that “These trends, alongside the potential of growing climate pressures to further escalate conflict, present critical challenges for resource managers in the region.” The research team also includes experts from the University of Namibia and the nation’s Ministry of Environment, Forestry and Tourism. In Namibia, the most prevalent conflict involves elephants raiding crops.
The study authors point out that because farming is vital to the region, aggressive interactions with elephants “can result in economic damages that outweigh local benefits from trophy hunting.” The conflict is particularly intense in Namibia’s Zambezi region, a wet area in the eastern panhandle, which attracts expanding farming interests. This region also serves as a corridor between protected elephant reserves.
In some areas, communal land management is self-governed to allow local people to hold common property rights over wildlife and tourism activities on ancestral lands. However, subsistence farming remains crucial for many residents, leading to confrontations with elephants.
The current study examined human-elephant conflicts across 38 communal conservancies experiencing rapid population growth, with a total population of nearly 150,000. Projections based on this data consistently show “a trend of increasing overlap and discord between elephants and human populations.”
Currently, conservation efforts in southern Africa protect nearly 300,000 elephants, but this success story is at risk. Patrick and his team warn that without proactive measures, the conflict between elephants and humans will likely escalate by the end of the century. Nonetheless, they suggest that recognizing land use as the primary factor in human-elephant conflict can empower local decision-makers.
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The researchers advocate for future planning that leaves space for elephants, which could reduce future conflicts, promote coexistence, and “protect human livelihoods and at-risk species into the coming decades.” It’s crucial to consider where our next steps will lead, as there is still time to preserve unspoiled parts of the savanna.
The study is published in PNAS Nexus.
This article was fact-checked by Rebecca Dyer and edited by Clare Watson. While we pride ourselves on our process, we are only human. If you spot a mistake, please let us know.
