Paris Agreement: The US is leaving the global climate pact – what happens next?

A momentous decision was made on 20 January in Washington DC as US president Donald Trump signed an order on stage to withdraw the US from the Paris climate treaty, eliciting cheers from the crowd. The order cited the priority of putting “America first”. However, environmental groups voiced strong opposition to the move, arguing that the withdrawal of the world’s second-largest greenhouse gas emitter from the agreement will worsen climate impacts and relinquish US influence in global negotiations to China, its clean-energy rival.

David Waskow from the World Resources Institute, a global environmental nonprofit, expressed concern over the decision, stating, “This is a matter of the US and the Trump administration shooting themselves in the foot,” emphasizing that it will marginalize the US on the global stage.

This marks the second time that Trump has led the US to exit the Paris Agreement, a pivotal accord established in 2015 to cap global warming well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. According to the treaty’s regulations, the withdrawal process will take a year to finalize, making the US the sole major economy not part of the agreement once it comes into effect. The only other countries that have not ratified the agreement are Libya, Yemen, and Iran.

Li Shuo from the Asia Society Policy Institute in Washington DC expressed concerns over the impact of the US withdrawal on international climate efforts. He highlighted that the move comes at a time when global emission reduction initiatives were already facing challenges due to geopolitical, social, and economic factors. With record-high global emissions and temperatures exceeding 1.5°C for the first time last year, the absence of the US could diminish the push for ambitious emission cuts and potentially lead other nations to scale back their climate commitments.

Despite the setback caused by the US withdrawal, experts like Waskow and Manish Bapna from the Natural Resources Defense Council believe that global climate action will not collapse. They pointed out that over 90% of global emissions are still covered by countries committed to the Paris Agreement. Additionally, the significant growth of clean energy technologies like wind, solar, electric vehicles, and batteries in the global economy is expected to continue driving progress in emissions reduction.

However, the absence of the US in shaping the future of clean energy markets poses challenges, especially with China’s dominance in key clean energy sectors and its expanding influence in exporting clean energy technology worldwide. Waskow emphasized that the US risks losing its market share and influence in these critical industries by stepping back from global climate action.

Furthermore, the new Trump administration’s swift reversal of environmental policies on its first day in office, including halting wind energy permits and rolling back incentives for electric vehicles, reflects a broader shift towards promoting fossil fuel development. These policy changes could hinder the transition to clean energy and exacerbate environmental challenges, as emphasized by the administration’s declaration of a “national energy emergency” aimed at boosting fossil fuel production.