The Hidden Truth: Why “Lower Crime Rate” Claims About Illegal Immigration Are Fundamentally Flawed |

As the intensity of ICE raids escalates across the nation and federalized National Guard troops confront rioters in Los Angeles, proponents of illegal immigration ardently claim that undocumented individuals commit crimes at lower rates than their native-born counterparts. However, this assertion is nothing short of a statistical mirage.

The mathematical reality reveals a troubling truth: in so-called sanctuary cities and states, local jurisdictions have been conspicuously reticent about disclosing data on immigrant incarcerations. When entire regions are excluded from data gathering, a “data deficit” is created, undermining any claim to statistical accuracy regarding national crime trends.

This selective omission is particularly misleading, as sanctuary jurisdictions harbor approximately 56 percent of the nation’s undocumented immigrants—nearly eight million individuals. California, alone, is home to three million undocumented immigrants, accounting for 21.8 percent of the national total, yet its sanctuary policies obstruct the accurate collection of crime data from these populations.

By definition, every individual who enters the United States illegally has committed a federal offense. Thus, all undocumented immigrants are guilty of at least one crime—either illegal entry or remaining unlawfully. Furthermore, those without convictions or pending charges who have violated U.S. immigration laws, including overstaying visas, are still engaging in ongoing legal violations. Working without authorization constitutes another crime, and failing to report income can lead to tax evasion. Consequently, most undocumented immigrants are likely committing multiple, continuous infractions.

This classification is critical, especially given the unprecedented dominion of cartels over illegal immigration. Testimonies from Border Patrol leadership before Congress confirm that, unlike in the past when individuals could cross the border independently, now no one crosses without compensating the cartels. These organizations dictate the timing and volume of crossings and often control the work these individuals undertake once inside the country, which may involve drug trafficking, prostitution, or other criminal enterprises. Hence, nearly all illegal border crossers have financial ties to designated terrorist organizations through the fees they pay for smuggling.

The Department of State has classified many of these transnational gangs and cartels as terrorist organizations, including Tren de Aragua, MS-13, and various Mexican cartels, recognized as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) and Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGTs).

This designation is significant because gang members are not mere one-time offenders. MS-13, for instance, actively recruits and orchestrates violence across several countries, including the United States. When a gang member crosses the border illegally, they bring with them a heightened likelihood of committing a multitude of serious crimes.

The evidence is accumulating: so far this year, U.S. Border Patrol has apprehended 218 individuals affiliated with gangs. Each gang member represents not just one crime (illegal entry), but rather an ongoing criminal enterprise. In a recent raid, immigration authorities made nearly 1,200 arrests in a single day, 613 of which (almost 52%) were categorized as “criminal arrests.” Many of these individuals were wanted on multiple charges.

Another alarming instance highlighting the risks posed by repeat offenders emerged when NYPD officials criticized New York’s sanctuary policies, which prevent local law enforcement from collaborating with federal immigration authorities. This criticism followed the horrifying case of an undocumented man with prior convictions and a deportation order who brutally raped a woman in New York. This situation epitomizes a systemic failure where ideology takes precedence over public safety.

Even if the assertion that undocumented immigrants commit crimes at a lower rate were true, it is essential to recognize that nearly all crimes perpetrated by undocumented individuals in the U.S. could have been entirely avoided had those individuals not been present in the country. Therefore, the overall crime rate would increase as a direct consequence of their presence.

If an undocumented immigrant commits a crime, that contribution to the crime rate is entirely preventable through adequate immigration enforcement.

Progressive prosecutors favor a lenient approach to crime, allowing many offenders to evade accountability, which inevitably leads to soaring recidivism rates. The combination of open borders, sanctuary city policies, and lenient prosecution creates a perfect storm in which criminal undocumented immigrants can operate with minimal repercussions.

Since President Trump assumed office, illegal immigration has plummeted by over 90%. In February 2025, Border Patrol recorded a mere 8,300 apprehensions, a stark contrast to 140,600 in February 2024. This figure marks the lowest average apprehensions in U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) history, at about 330 per day. This dramatic decline results from fewer illegal crossings, underscoring the effectiveness of stringent border enforcement and rigorous deportation efforts as deterrents against illegal entry. The same principle applies to drug trafficking.

Fentanyl-related fatalities have significantly decreased, with drug deaths across the U.S. dropping nearly 27 percent, and synthetic opioid deaths falling by 33%. Fentanyl seizures at the Mexican border have also diminished by almost 30%, with March 2025 witnessing a 54% drop compared to March 2024. This correlation between reduced illegal immigration and drug trafficking highlights the reality that migrant smuggling has evolved into a “multi-billion-dollar international business dominated by organized crime,” with cartels raking in up to $30 million daily from combined human and drug smuggling operations, often employing large groups of migrants as distractions for Border Patrol while moving drug shipments through less monitored areas.

The motivations of figures like Gavin Newsom, Mayor Bass, or others opposing Trump’s stringent border and deportation policies remain enigmatic. However, one conclusion is crystal clear: the narrative that undocumented workers commit crimes at a lower rate is a myth.