Destroyed buildings in Jabalia, Gaza, in February 2025
Imago/Alamy
An independent study based on a household survey reveals that around 75,000 people in the Gaza Strip, accounting for 3.6% of the population, perished due to violent causes between 7 October 2023 and 5 January 2025. This figure surpasses the official estimate of 46,000 violent deaths reported by Gaza’s health ministry for the same period.
In addition to the direct casualties, the study suggests that there were nearly 9000 more non-violent deaths during this timeframe than what would typically be anticipated in the Gaza Strip. This marks the first attempt to quantify the indirect fatalities resulting from the conflict that erupted in October 2023.
Conducted through interviews with 2000 randomly selected households, where residents were asked to provide information about all household members before and after the war, the study aimed to capture a comprehensive view of the impact of the conflict. Despite facing challenges in accessing certain areas due to ongoing hostilities and evacuation orders, the researchers believe that any gaps in data collection may have led to an underestimation of the actual death toll.
Lead researcher, Debarati Guha-Sapir from the Catholic University of Louvain in Belgium, argues that the study’s methodology, which directly engaged with the affected population, provides a more accurate depiction of the crisis compared to official figures that may overlook certain deaths, such as those of individuals buried in tunnels.
Another study published recently also indicated a discrepancy between the official death toll and the actual numbers, reinforcing the need for more comprehensive assessments of the situation. While there are differing opinions on the precision of the survey-based approach employed in the study, experts concur that incorporating indirect deaths in the analysis presents a more holistic view of the humanitarian crisis.
Contrary to previous speculations suggesting a much higher count of indirect deaths, the study’s findings underscore the unique circumstances of the Gaza conflict and caution against extrapolating data from other contexts. However, with the ongoing conflict exacerbating living conditions in the region, there remains a looming threat of a surge in non-violent fatalities if the situation persists.
