While the road ahead is fraught with challenges, the Republican Party may have a viable path to victory in New Jersey, particularly by targeting the vulnerabilities of Mikie Sherrill.
To prevent the four-term congresswoman from taking up residence in the governor’s mansion, Republicans will need to replicate their recent successes. Jack Ciattarelli’s performance in the suburbs and exurbs during the 2021 election brought him within three points of defeating Democratic Governor Phil Murphy. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump managed to make inroads last year, especially among Black and Hispanic voters in urban locales.
If Ciattarelli can build on these two trends—having secured the GOP nomination again for this open seat—he stands a chance of becoming the first Republican to claim the Garden State in over a decade.
This strategy applies regardless of the Democratic nominee, but it poses a unique threat to Sherrill. An analysis by POLITICO of election results reveals that, despite her commanding victory in a crowded Democratic primary in June, Sherrill received a disappointingly low share of votes in many Black and Hispanic areas that had shifted toward Trump last year.
For instance, in predominantly Black municipalities, Sherrill garnered only 16 percent of the Democratic primary vote, well below the statewide average of 34 percent. As she seeks to broaden her appeal beyond her primary coalition, she finds herself competing for the same voters as Ciattarelli.
“This campaign is not simply going to be won through the suburbs,” noted Antoinette Miles, head of the New Jersey Working Families Party. “A united front will be essential to defeat a candidate like Jack Ciattarelli, who has garnered a diverse base of support and is attempting to court the same Trump-aligned coalition that made gains in 2024.”
Nonetheless, Ciattarelli’s uphill battle persists in a state where Democrats enjoy a significant registration advantage. His impressive showing in 2021 may be difficult to replicate, especially with Trump no longer in the White House and the absence of recent COVID restrictions to energize voters. Additionally, there’s no guarantee that he can recreate the gains the former president achieved last year.
Recognizing the challenge, both state and national Democrats are ramping up their efforts. The Democratic National Committee recently allocated $1.5 million to New Jersey, aiming to reconnect with key constituencies that they lost ground with in the November 2024 elections.
While Sherrill is anticipated to win the Black and Hispanic vote in the general election, the extent of her margin remains crucial. In a close contest, those demographics could prove decisive. Ciattarelli is actively working to win these voters over.
“Jack Ciattarelli has been more present and specific about his plans,” observed John Harmon, the founder and CEO of the African American Chamber of Commerce of New Jersey, who has met with both candidates. He added that Democrats seem to be adopting a complacent approach, assuming their lead is secure, and putting off more direct engagement with Black voters until later.
Insights from Election Results
Republicans have managed to make headway in New Jersey elections over the past few cycles through two distinct strategies, according to POLITICO’s analysis.
Ciattarelli’s near-defeat in 2021 was fueled by significant shifts in the Republican voter base across the state’s predominantly white suburbs and exurbs. Concurrently, a separate set of municipalities, particularly urban areas with sizable Black and Hispanic populations, swung toward Trump from 2020 to 2024.
Combining these two trends could form a potent electoral force for Republicans.
Early polling indicates that Sherrill, as anticipated, holds a stronger position among Black and Hispanic voters compared to Ciattarelli. A recent poll from the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers University indicates that she leads Ciattarelli 69 percent to 4 percent among Black voters and 56 to 22 percent among Hispanic voters. Other surveys also show Sherrill maintaining a lead.
However, Sherrill’s performance was less impressive in areas with higher concentrations of Black and Hispanic residents. In majority-Black municipalities, she finished second in the primary, trailing Newark Mayor Ras Baraka by a staggering 40 points.
In predominantly Hispanic municipalities, some of which are within her congressional district where she has an established reputation, she only secured just under 33 percent of the primary vote—similar to her statewide total—with Baraka close behind at 31 percent.
Notably, her strongest results came in areas that showed little or no shift toward Trump last year, where she won about 40 percent of the Democratic primary vote. In contrast, she garnered just 25 percent in regions that swung towards the former president by 15 points or more.
Democrats argue that Sherrill’s performance in a highly competitive primary does not necessarily predict her general election performance in those areas. Each candidate in the Democratic primary had a plausible path to victory, often focusing on energizing their core supporters rather than penetrating their opponents’ strongholds.
Conventional wisdom suggested that Baraka, a prominent Black progressive, had the strongest appeal to Black voters, particularly in urban settings.
“You had a highly visible African American candidate in the race from the heart of urban New Jersey—Newark—who had an undeniable appeal to African American and Latino voters,” stated New Jersey Democratic Party Chair LeRoy Jones. “That was a lane that Mikie couldn’t compete with Ras Baraka. The primary proved that. However, the general election is an entirely different beast.”
During a recent event hosted by the Capital City Area Black Caucus, Sherrill praised Baraka, acknowledging that he “brought a voice to the primary that was crucial for our Democratic Party. He made me a better candidate by challenging me on various issues.” She also mentioned that he has collaborated with her policy team, while Baraka expressed in an interview with WBGO that he is developing “a robust policy agenda for her,” believing she could be a strong advocate for their community and working-class individuals.
However, Baraka has yet to endorse Sherrill, stating that his support is “absolutely” contingent upon her making strides on those policies, which are still in development.
Both Campaigns Targeting Key Voters
Sherrill’s summer campaigning has begun to focus on areas where she previously fell short in the primary. She recently held an event in Camden, a majority-Hispanic city that is nearly 40 percent Black and swung 14 points toward Trump last year, where she criticized Trump’s megabill.
In the primary, she had only received 9 percent of the vote in Camden.
Camden City Council President Angel Fuentes expressed optimism that Sherrill will allocate more time to South Jersey—especially deep-blue Camden—as “she needs our vote.”
Earlier this summer, she also campaigned in Trenton, where over 80 percent of the residents identify as Black or Hispanic, and where she ranked behind both Baraka and New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller in the primary.
Teaneck Mayor Mark Schwartz, who supported Rep. Josh Gottheimer in the primary, suggested a straightforward strategy for Sherrill to improve her numbers in his racially diverse North Jersey town after finishing fourth: “Show up.”
“I’m not placing blame on her because, for the most part, that’s Josh territory, and why would you waste your time when you’d likely lose? But Bergen County is purple, and she has a Republican opponent who did well there,” he noted.
On the other hand, Ciattarelli is actively seeking to win over Black and Hispanic voters who previously did not support him but backed Trump last year. After his loss in the 2021 election, Ciattarelli acknowledged that he “could have done even better” in Black and Hispanic communities.
Chris Russell, a Ciattarelli adviser, stated that the campaign has made a “serious investment in Jack’s time and resources in these communities,” emphasizing that this level of engagement did not exist in 2021, partly due to Trump’s success.
Ciattarelli’s campaign stops include Paterson, a city with a majority of Hispanic and Black residents where Trump made gains last year, as well as Dover, where approximately three-quarters of the population is Hispanic. He has also sought to engage with Black faith leaders.
Both candidates are framing their campaigns around economic messages, with both parties acknowledging that economic issues played a significant role in Trump’s increased support among Hispanic and Black voters last year.
“When I visit our major urban centers, I pose the timeless question from Ronald Reagan,” Ciattarelli remarked in a recent radio interview. “I particularly direct it at the Black and brown communities that Murphy promised everything to eight years ago: Are you better off today than you were eight years ago? I mean, who can genuinely respond ‘yes’ to that?”
While Black and Hispanic voters have the potential to sway an election, historically, they do not exhibit high turnout rates in New Jersey’s off-year gubernatorial contests. Furthermore, it remains uncertain whether Trump’s gains among these demographics are a unique phenomenon or if they will extend to other Republicans.
Democrats contend that even though Ciattarelli is actively visiting these communities, his policies—and his association with Trump, whose approval ratings are underwater in the state—will hinder his chances in November.
“Jack takes pictures, but he has consistently failed to support Black or Latino communities when his vote or voice mattered,” stated Sherrill’s spokesperson, Sean Higgins. “As a ‘100% MAGA’ candidate, Jack aligns with Trump’s extreme agenda, which strips healthcare from New Jerseyans and imposes tariffs that burden small businesses.”
