TALLAHASSEE, Florida — In a surprising turn of events in Florida, a state traditionally dominated by Republicans, Democrats successfully captured two legislative seats on Tuesday, including one in the district that houses President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate.
Emily Gregory, a Democrat and first-time candidate, emerged victorious over a Republican state House candidate who had the backing of Trump. The contest for this Palm Beach County district was fiercely fought, with Democrats heavily investing to secure the seat. Additionally, Democrats narrowly clinched a win in a Tampa state senate seat that had been vacated by Lt. Gov. Jay Collins last August.
These victories, while significant, do not alter the Republican supermajority in the Florida Legislature. However, they were celebrated by Democrats, both state and national, after years of Republican dominance. The wins are part of a broader pattern over the past 14 months, where Democrats have been flipping Republican-held seats in state legislatures across the nation.
Gregory, who has a background in public health and mental health administration and currently manages a fitness center for postpartum mothers, defeated Jon Maples, a financial planner and former local council member, by a margin of just over 2 percentage points. Despite Trump’s social media efforts to rally support for Maples, Gregory secured the win.
“I think it demonstrates where the Florida voter is,” Gregory remarked to POLITICO after her victory. “They want someone who is focused on solutions and the issues and not focused on the noise.”
Previously, in 2024, the Republican incumbent Mike Caruso won House District 87 by a wide margin of 19 points. While Democrats aimed to win in Trump’s vicinity, the local campaign emphasized themes of affordability and taxes. The race turned contentious in its final days, with both sides launching attacks through mailers and text messages.
This win adds to a series of Democratic successes in special elections and stronger performances in Florida since Trump won the state comfortably in 2024.
“This victory reiterates an undeniable trend in Florida: With year-round organizing and infrastructure investment, Democrats can run and win anywhere — including Donald Trump’s backyard,” stated Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried. “Floridians are tired of the chaos, corruption, and sky-high prices on everything from groceries to gas and health care.”
Election records reveal that Trump, along with first lady Melania Trump and their son Barron, voted by mail in the House District 87 election. Trump requested his mail-in ballot on March 14, shortly after advocating for the SAVE America Act to limit mail-in voting. Yet, during a stop in Memphis, Trump described mail-in voting as “mail-in cheating.”
In another surprise result, Brian Nathan, a union leader and veteran, overcame significant financial disadvantages to win a race to replace Collins, receiving minimal support from state Democrats. Nathan narrowly defeated Josie Tomkow, a rancher who had previously served in a neighboring district. Questions had arisen about Tomkow’s residency, but she stated her intention to move into the district if elected. Even Fried admitted surprise at Nathan’s victory in state Senate District 14.
“We believe Brian just sent shockwaves across Florida,” commented Shawna Presley Vercher, a consultant for Nathan.
The special elections were triggered by appointments made by Gov. Ron DeSantis. Collins was appointed last August, but there was a delay in calling a special election to fill the seat. The Palm Beach County state House seat became vacant after the GOP legislator holding it was appointed to a local position by DeSantis.
Tomkow’s decision to vacate her House seat led to a vacancy that was filled by Republican Hilary Holley on Tuesday. Holley won by nine points, a narrower margin than Tomkow’s previous victory in the district in 2024.
