Zia Mehrabi, the founder of the Better Planet Laboratory at the University of Colorado Boulder, has been at the forefront of studying the intersection of food insecurity and climate change. In 2021, Mehrabi found himself inundated with requests for quantitative insights into how extreme weather events impact food supply chains and contribute to global hunger. However, the lack of comprehensive public data made it difficult to analyze the economic puzzle.
Enter Earth Genome, a nonprofit organization dedicated to building data-driven tools for a sustainable planet. Earth Genome approached Mehrabi to collaborate on developing a digital food supply map that would provide a holistic view of global food flows. The result was an app that maps food flows through major ports, roads, railways, and shipping lanes worldwide, tracing goods from production to consumption. This “digital twin of the global food system” aims to help policymakers and researchers better understand and adapt to the vulnerabilities of the food supply chain in the face of climate change.
The app, which was launched recently and shared exclusively with Grist, identifies critical transportation chokepoints where disruptions could have cascading effects on food security. By pinpointing these vulnerabilities, the app also highlights opportunities for local and regional agricultural producers to establish a market foothold in a forward-thinking manner.
Mehrabi emphasizes the importance of building data-driven systems like the digital food twin for decision-making processes. The app is a groundbreaking tool that sheds light on the interconnected nature of the global food supply system. Alla Semenova, an economist at St. Mary’s College of Maryland, praised the app for underlining the significance of government policies that support diversified and localized food production and distribution systems.
The app provides a detailed view of food supply chains across the world, showcasing the exportation of various agricultural food groups and measuring the economic impact on regions. It also includes data on the size of agricultural sectors, economic output per person, population size, and indicators of human development such as health, standard of living, and education. Additionally, the app calculates the mass, calories, and macronutrient content of crop, aquatic, and livestock commodities flowing in and out of different regions.
One of the key features of the app is its visualization of critical chokepoints that could disrupt commodity flows during extreme weather events. These chokepoints include major waterways like the Suez Canal, the Panama Canal, the Turkish Straits, and the Strait of Malacca, as well as ports, inland waterways, and railway networks in the U.S.
Overall, the digital food supply map developed by Zia Mehrabi and Earth Genome represents a groundbreaking step towards understanding and addressing the vulnerabilities of the global food supply chain in the face of climate change. By providing comprehensive data and insights, this tool has the potential to inform strategic decision-making and policy development in the quest for a more sustainable and secure food system. Maritime passages and coastal choke points such as the Suez Canal, Panama Canal, and Brazil all play crucial roles in handling a significant portion of the world’s food trade. These key routes are essential for the transportation of food supplies across the globe, making them vulnerable to disruptions caused by extreme weather events and climate shocks.
Researchers have developed a tool that can proactively assess the impact of climate shocks on trade routes by measuring their effects on calories, protein, and critical nutrients. It has been found that roughly 9 percent of the world’s supply chain routes account for 80 percent of global caloric flows, highlighting the importance of these key maritime passages in the food trade.
The United States, a major food importer, relies on imports from around 154 countries to meet about a third of its food supply. Imports of essential goods such as bananas, coffee, olive oil, cocoa beans, and oranges are at risk due to climate-related disruptions. If extreme weather events were to hit leading wheat exporters in Western Australia, India’s rice powerhouse in Uttar Pradesh, and soybean exporters in Paraná, Brazil, it could disrupt food supplies and impact millions of people’s food energy requirements.
Recent years have seen severe weather events in these regions, including record low rainfall in Western Australia, extreme weather events in Uttar Pradesh, and floods and droughts in Brazil. Disruptions to food exports from these regions could affect the food security of millions of people in the US, Mexico, and China, particularly low-income households that are already struggling with food access.
The tool developed by researchers has garnered interest from various groups interested in using it to prepare emergency food reserves. Officials at the State Department and Department of Homeland Security have shown interest in using the tool to analyze large amounts of data and complex relationships to understand and address food system problems before they escalate into crises.
While the tool has its limitations, such as not displaying specific agricultural goods imported by a region or the precise impact of climate shocks on food availability, it provides valuable insights into the vulnerabilities of the global food supply chain. By visualizing the concentration of food production in a small number of countries and highlighting the potential effects of localized transport disruptions, the tool serves as a valuable resource for predicting the impact of climate shocks on food security.
As global leaders work to address the challenges posed by climate change and extreme weather events, tools like Food Twin can provide valuable insights into the vulnerabilities of the global food system. By using this tool as a gut-check to focus on the right issues and address potential crises before they escalate, we can work towards building a more resilient and sustainable food supply chain for the future.
