Analilia Mejia’s 20-point victory in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District might have been surprising in another year. However, her win on Thursday did not cause much astonishment, even though Kamala Harris had previously won the district by just 8 points.
This result is part of a series of strong Democratic performances in elections since Donald Trump became president last year, with many surpassing expectations.
A POLITICO analysis of 229 state and federal elections since Trump’s inauguration reveals that Democratic candidates outperformed Harris in 193 cases. On average, they exceeded her performance by 5 points, with some special elections seeing Democrats move more than 20 points to the left.
These consistent Democratic successes are a warning sign for Republicans, recurring every few weeks. Historically, such performances in special elections have indicated shifts in midterm outcomes. Over the past 15 months, this trend has been particularly evident. In the previous two-year cycle of special elections leading up to 2018, about two-thirds of races shifted to the left, according to The Downballot. That year, Democrats gained 40 seats.
This cycle, nearly 85 percent of special elections have leaned more Democratic.
“The consistent overperformance in special elections signifies that Americans are growing disillusioned with Republicans’ unfulfilled promises,” stated Aidan Johnson, spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
However, significant shifts in some special elections do not imply that every seat Trump won by 10 points will be contested in November. Part of these notable numbers results from comparisons to Harris, who fared worse in 2024 than other Democrats on the ballot. For instance, in New Jersey’s 11th District, Mike Sherrill won by nearly 15 points, while Harris secured an 8-point win. Mejia won the special election by 20 points.
Bernadette Breslin, spokesperson for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, remarked, “Claiming success by outperforming the least popular Democratic presidential nominee is an embarrassingly low standard.”
Turnout in special elections is typically lower than in midterm or presidential elections. National Republicans argue that higher turnout in the midterms will change the dynamics.
“Democrats are selectively highlighting low-turnout special elections to construct a narrative that doesn’t hold up under scrutiny,” said Mike Marinella, spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “Republicans possess the resources, message, and momentum heading into 2026 and are outperforming Democrats in key battlegrounds that will determine the majority.”
Nevertheless, Democrats’ improved performance in comparison to 2024 spans various races and districts, including special elections for the House, state legislative seats, and regular gubernatorial and legislative contests in Virginia and New Jersey last year. This steady progress for Democrats across diverse districts and states suggests a shift in the political landscape since 2024.
Morgan Bonwell, a Republican strategist from Iowa, noted that Trump’s victory galvanized Democratic voters.
“It motivated Democrats. They experienced a significant defeat,” she said. “They saw another chance to rally and vote.”
The data shows that Democratic gains are not solely from partisan voters in strong Democratic areas: most are in districts where Trump defeated Harris. The most significant gain occurred in a Trump-won Brooklyn state Senate district, where the Democratic candidate improved on Harris’s vote share by 45 percentage points. State legislative races in Rhode Island and Oklahoma shifted 28 and 27 points, respectively.
The Republicans’ most substantial gain was a February special election for an Alabama state legislative seat, where their candidate exceeded Trump’s margin by 13 points.
Fred Hicks, a Democratic strategist, expressed optimism about voters reengaging with the party after a lackluster 2024 where Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race, and Harris’s campaign did not stop Trump’s reelection.
“Trump’s actions and announcements quickly sobered Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters, making them realize they couldn’t afford to be complacent,” Hicks said.
Another positive sign for Democrats is that some state legislative elections have aligned with congressional battlegrounds. Three state legislative special elections in Iowa, for instance, took place within the boundaries of the state’s 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts — major Democratic targets held by GOP Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn. In each of these special elections, the Democratic candidate surpassed Harris’s 2024 margin by 12 to 13 percentage points.
Bonwell, the Republican strategist from Iowa, cautioned that Miller-Meeks, Nunn, and the rest of the GOP team in Iowa must work closely together to match Democrats’ turnout in November, especially with strong candidates like Democratic gubernatorial hopeful Rob Sand, who she believes “can drive turnout.”
“They need to present a united front and, in my view, pool resources to elevate everyone,” she said. “It will undoubtedly be challenging.”
Other special elections have taken place in major Senate battlegrounds. Since last year, six state legislative special elections in Georgia have all shifted between 2 and 10 points toward Democrats. In the congressional special election for Marjorie Taylor Greene’s former seat, the Democratic candidate surpassed Harris’s district margin by 13 points. In Maine, two special elections occurred — one swung 6 points toward Democrats, and the other shifted slightly toward the GOP.
Despite consistently low favorability ratings for the party since 2025, Democrats’ overperformance endures. Doug Wilson, a Democratic strategist from North Carolina, attributes this to a focus on fundamental issues — the basis of the “affordability” strategy employed by successful Democratic campaigns in the past year.
“The party’s brand isn’t what it once was, but I believe Democrats have done well in returning to their roots,” Wilson said. “Remembering the concerns of everyday people who worry about feeding their families, fueling their cars, and saving for retirement.”
Uncertain factors remain that could influence the midterm environment. In the 2022 election cycle, Democrats struggled in special elections until the Dobbs decision highlighted abortion rights, leading to a winning streak and mixed midterm results for both parties.
For now, the trend has Democrats optimistic for November. Alex Kellner, a Democratic strategist, believes they could achieve a significant wave of victories, similar to the Republicans’ substantial win in the 2010 midterms.
“The potential for Democrats is higher than it has been in a long time for significant gains,” Kellner said.
