Many Americans remain skeptical about President Donald Trump’s economic performance, with the Iran war exacerbating their financial concerns.
Despite The POLITICO Poll uncovering significant voter concern six months ago, recent findings indicate that Trump has not managed to shift perceptions regarding the high cost of living or accountability.
As of May, 53 percent of Americans still believe the cost of living is the worst they’ve experienced, a slight increase from nearly half in November. Additionally, 46 percent of Americans continue to attribute full or most responsibility for the economic state to Trump, a figure that remains largely unchanged since November.
Currently, a plurality of respondents report worsening personal finances since Trump assumed office, including 18 percent of his 2024 supporters, according to the May survey by Public First.
The findings highlight Trump’s challenges in crafting a compelling midterm narrative on affordability, even as some economic indicators remain positive. His tendency to deviate from prepared messages complicates GOP efforts. The unpopular Iran war compounds these issues, leaving Republicans vulnerable as financial anxieties persist among voters.
A majority of Americans believe Trump has not adequately shielded them from the economic impacts of the war, which has led to increased prices for gas, food, and flights. Over 60 percent, including majorities of both Trump supporters and those who backed former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, feel the war has generally raised their expenses.
Kevin Madden, a veteran GOP communications strategist, noted, “A major challenge for [Joe] Biden was that, as prices rose and worries about inflation took hold, the response from the Biden administration was that inflation was ‘transitory.’”
He continued, “Trump faces a similar predicament. As prices rise due to tariff and trade policies and global conflict, the response that it’s a hoax or not true is just a very discordant message given that so many voters are feeling a budget pinch right now.”
The Iran war increasingly dominates the Trump administration’s domestic economic narrative, with officials frequently addressing questions about oil and gas prices. Republicans in battleground states worry that ongoing conflict could jeopardize their prospects in key Senate and House races this November.
The survey indicates that Republicans’ efforts to shift economic blame to Biden are ineffective: only 28 percent of Americans hold the former president largely accountable for the current economy, whereas nearly half attribute significant responsibility to Trump.
A Florida-based Republican strategist, speaking under anonymity, stated, “The sooner the war winds down, the better for Trump when it comes to prospects in the midterms because the price of gas is so intricate in the notion of affordability.”
White House spokesperson Kush Desai affirmed the president’s commitment to addressing short-term disruptions while advancing his economic agenda.
“As traffic in the Strait of Hormuz normalizes again, Americans will again see gas prices plummet, real wages grow, inflation cool, and trillions in investments continue pouring in,” Desai stated.
Trump supporters are more likely than Harris voters to believe that the president has taken adequate measures to mitigate costs from the Iran conflict, yet his base remains divided: 43 percent say he has done enough, while another 43 percent disagree.
This division reflects broader GOP splits over the war, with some conservatives, like media figure Tucker Carlson and former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, vocally opposing the conflict.
Nevertheless, Trump voters show greater willingness than Harris voters and the general public to support continued U.S. involvement in Iran, even if it raises costs. A 42 percent plurality of Trump voters support this stance, compared to 11 percent of Harris voters and 22 percent of all respondents.
Thursday brought further challenges for the administration: Inflation has surged to its highest level since Trump returned to office, and the economy expanded at a slower rate than previously estimated in the first quarter, according to government reports.
Nearly half of Americans blame inflation for their affordability issues, while about one-quarter point to overseas conflicts as the primary cause, the survey reveals.
Significant majorities report noticeable or significant increases in prices of everyday items like gas, food, and medicine since Trump took office, including most of his voters.
Republican strategists suggest resolving the war could improve public perceptions of the economy, but prolonged conflict may hinder the party’s ability to alter voter opinions. Economic experts caution that gas prices are expected to remain high for several more months as the global economy grapples with the conflict’s effects.
“If you can get the gas prices back to pre-conflict levels, and the people in those 16 to 18 House districts that are going to decide this race, are feeling good in three or four states, then you’re in a much better shape than a lot of people think,” the GOP strategist remarked.
