AIPAC faces calls to reassess strategy after split results in Illinois

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) experienced mixed outcomes during its first significant test of political influence in the midterm elections, facing backlash from both opponents and some allies for its involvement in four competitive Illinois House primaries.

On Tuesday night, AIPAC-backed candidates saw victories with Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller preventing former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr.’s return in the 2nd District, and former Rep. Melissa Bean overcoming numerous progressive challengers in the 8th District.

However, the organization faced criticism from within the pro-Israel Democratic community and sharp rebuke from opponents after failing to achieve its preferred results in the two races where it invested the most money.

In the 9th District, AIPAC allocated $7 million, part of which targeted Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, whose mother is Israeli. Biss, who has criticized Israel’s actions in Gaza, won the crowded primary despite AIPAC’s pivot from attacking him to focusing negative ads on progressive social media influencer and Palestinian American Kat Abughazaleh. Meanwhile, in the 7th District, an AIPAC-affiliated super PAC spent nearly $5 million supporting Chicago Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin, who lost to state Rep. La Shawn Ford.

This mixed performance came a month after AIPAC angered its centrist allies by opposing another pro-Israel candidate, former Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-N.J.), which ultimately aided the victory of progressive Analilia Mejia, a stronger critic of Israel.

One longtime AIPAC member, speaking anonymously, remarked that the group’s spending against Biss was a waste and suggested a strategic reassessment following the results in the 9th District and New Jersey.

AIPAC-aligned super PACs spent nearly $22 million in the Illinois primaries, which accounts for over one-fifth of its $100 million budget for the 2026 midterms, managing to secure wins in only two of four open-seat races, while losing the race that garnered the most national attention.

During his victory celebration, Biss criticized AIPAC for its heavy spending, stating, “AIPAC found out the hard way — the 9th District is not for sale.”

AIPAC countered claims that it struggled in the elections, with spokesperson Deryn Sousa noting, “Illinois voters rejected half a dozen anti-Israel candidates across several heavily Democratic open-seat races.” Sousa argued that campaigns primarily opposing AIPAC and its values failed to succeed on election night.

The organization, already a contentious figure among Democrats dealing with rising anti-Israel sentiment within the party, is now under increased scrutiny for its campaign spending. This scrutiny comes as the U.S. and Israel engage in a joint conflict with Iran, further straining American perceptions of their long-standing ally.

Polling indicates a growing shift among Americans, especially Democrats, away from Israel. An NBC News poll revealed that 57 percent of Democrats view Israel negatively, a significant change from the 35 percent holding this view after the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack. A Quinnipiac University survey found that 44 percent of voters believe the U.S. is overly supportive of Israel, the highest percentage since 2017. Among Democrats, 62 percent think America is too supportive, compared to 22 percent who find the support appropriate and 8 percent who believe it is insufficient.

AIPAC’s strategy in Democratic primaries largely avoided focusing on Israel, instead accusing candidates of insufficient progressivism on other issues. This tactic, particularly in the 9th District, became a major topic of discussion among those targeted by AIPAC.

The Illinois Democratic delegation is unlikely to see a significant ideological shift on Israel following these races. Bean is set to replace Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, another pro-Israel candidate, who lost his Senate primary to Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton. Biss’s stance on Israel is not far from that of outgoing Rep. Jan Schakowsky, who endorsed him and previously criticized AIPAC. Rep. Danny Davis has supported Israel while condemning its actions in Gaza, and Ford has refused to commit to unconditional aid to Israel.

The most notable change is Miller replacing Rep. Robin Kelly, who labeled the Gaza conflict as “genocide.” Kelly did not advance in the Illinois Senate primary.

Patrick Dorton, spokesperson for the AIPAC super PAC United Democracy Project, claimed, “We consider this a pro-Israel win. We are better off in the Chicago delegation than we were yesterday,” highlighting the new incumbents in the Kelly, Schakowsky, and Davis seats.

Dorton also suggested that if the super PAC hadn’t spent over a million dollars on negative ads against Abughazaleh, she might have defeated Biss.

Some AIPAC allies offered a more positive perspective on the organization’s performance. Rep. Brad Schneider (D-Ill.), who supported Fine, Miller, and Bean, commented, “You win some, you lose some,” adding that winning every race indicates a lack of boundary-pushing.

Brian Romick, president of the Democratic Majority for Israel, which often shares candidate preferences with AIPAC, stated that Tuesday’s outcomes showed “Israel wasn’t a determinative factor in these primaries” and noted that “none of the extremist anti-Israel candidates won.”

Opponents of AIPAC celebrated the rejection of the group’s hardline tactics, including the use of shell PACs to obscure funding sources. They pointed to Biss’s victory as proof that candidates can withstand AIPAC’s influence. Democratic candidates and strategists are preparing for potential AIPAC interventions in upcoming House primaries, as well as those in Michigan and Minnesota.

Jeremy Ben-Ami, president of J Street, a rival organization that invested $350,000 in support of Biss and countered AIPAC in other Illinois House races, declared, “Tuesday’s results should send a clear message to candidates across the country: you do not have to fear AIPAC’s spending or intimidation.”

Despite setbacks, AIPAC is expected to remain a formidable force throughout the midterms. A pro-Israel Democratic donor adviser, speaking anonymously, predicted continued financial support for AIPAC, stating, “Their donor talking points aren’t going to be, ‘we only got half.’ They’ll say, ‘we took out two of the worst people.’ They know how to sell it, and there’s no shortage of money.”

Shia Kapos contributed to this report.

CLARIFICATION: This article has been updated to include Ford’s views on aid to Israel.