CHICAGO — The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) is investing nearly $22 million in Illinois, aiming to maintain its influence in Democratic politics, even if its policy views face resistance.
In three out of four targeted Illinois House races, AIPAC is reportedly using shell PACs to obscure the origins of its funds, rather than utilizing its primary super PAC, the United Democracy Project. Their advertising strategy, similar to recent elections, avoids direct references to Israel.
AIPAC risks inadvertently aiding the candidate most opposed to its views in the race to succeed retiring Rep. Jan Schakowsky, mirroring a recent misstep in New Jersey. The organization has shifted its tactics, moving away from attacking a Jewish candidate critical of Israel to now focusing on a more vocal Palestinian-American contender.
Interviews with a dozen Democratic figures, including elected officials, candidates, and strategists from both pro- and anti-Israel perspectives, reveal mounting unease over AIPAC’s involvement. Strategists caution that AIPAC’s attacks on Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, whose grandfather survived the Holocaust, have opened the door for Kat Abughazaleh, a progressive social media influencer and Palestinian-American critic of Israel, who seems to be gaining momentum against AIPAC’s preferred candidate, state Sen. Laura Fine. Recently, AIPAC has withdrawn its anti-Biss messaging, though this may have come too late.
“There’s been a strategy shift,” stated an individual familiar with AIPAC’s strategy, speaking anonymously. “Our primary goal in Illinois is to prevent potential ‘Squad’ members from being elected to Congress.”
The upcoming primary will test AIPAC’s influence in the 2026 primary season, having accumulated nearly $100 million, despite growing Democratic disapproval of both Israel and AIPAC itself.
“AIPAC may end up backing a candidate who doesn’t align with their objectives, and concerns about their involvement in primaries are only going to grow,” commented David Axelrod, a Chicagoan and former senior adviser to President Barack Obama. “These ads aren’t branded as AIPAC for a reason, reflecting their contentious role in Democratic primaries.”
AIPAC recently spent $2 million to defeat former Rep. Tom Malinowski in a New Jersey primary. Malinowski, a pro-Israel moderate, lost to Analilia Mejia, a progressive who has accused Israel of genocide in Gaza. The move angered centrist Democrats, worried a similar situation could unfold again.
“No one wants another New Jersey 11 scenario, and everyone should be wary of it,” said a Democratic donor adviser close to AIPAC, speaking anonymously.
AIPAC’s strong support for Israel’s actions in Gaza has made it increasingly controversial on the left, with additional criticism following Israel’s joint attack with the U.S. in Iran. A Quinnipiac University poll reveals 62 percent of Democrats feel America is too supportive of Israel, while only 22 percent think the support is adequate, and 8 percent believe it’s insufficient.
Democratic candidates and strategists anticipate AIPAC will involve itself in various House and Senate primaries, including those in Michigan and Minnesota, closely watching how the group’s involvement affects voter perceptions amidst ongoing conflict.
“This is just the beginning,” said Rahm Emanuel, a Democratic strategist and former Chicago Mayor, commenting on the rise of external spending, including from AIPAC and crypto groups. “Illinois is the starting point for a troubling future where billionaires dominate, and candidates become mere pawns.”
In Illinois, the AIPAC-aligned super PAC Elect Chicago Women has heavily targeted Biss via TV and digital ads while spending over $4 million to support Fine. Recently, another AIPAC-aligned group, Chicago Progressive Partnership, released ads against Abughazaleh and in favor of another progressive, Bushra Amiwala, to potentially split the vote.
Local strategists observed when attacks on Biss abruptly ceased earlier this month.
“It looks like they’re adjusting their tactics after the New Jersey setback,” said an Illinois Democratic lawmaker, speaking anonymously. “Is there evidence of AIPAC learning from the last election? Yes.”
Biss anticipates a “backlash” to AIPAC’s actions in future Illinois primaries.
“They’ve made it clear that they oppose having members of Congress who don’t support unconditional military aid to Israel, regardless of its actions in Gaza,” Biss remarked. “So, people locally and nationally will be keen to see the results.”
Abughazaleh interprets the shift to target her as evidence of AIPAC “panicking” to steer the race. “They’re realizing they underestimated us and that people are seeking change. So, they’re in a panic,” she noted in an interview.
Fine opposes conditional U.S. aid to Israel but has expressed general dissatisfaction with “dark money” and the opacity of political action committees, terming it a “big problem in our political system.”
AIPAC’s super PAC declined to comment on its Illinois engagement, including its use of temporary super PACs to channel funds to candidates. AIPAC spokesperson Deryn Sousa stated, “Our members are focused on building strong bipartisan support for the U.S.-Israel partnership in the 120th Congress.”
The group is also investing heavily in races to fill seats left open by Reps. Robin Kelly, Raja Krishnamoorthi, and Danny Davis.
AIPAC’s allies lack confidence in their chances in Kelly’s district. The group supports Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller, but former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. is buoyed by over $1 million from a pro-cryptocurrency super PAC and high name recognition, especially after his father, the Rev. Jesse Jackson Sr., passed away.
Pro-Israel Democrats are more optimistic about their candidates’ prospects in two other races.
Chicago City Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin has received nearly $5 million in favorable ads from AIPAC’s main super PAC, United Democracy Project, in a crowded 13-candidate primary for Davis’ seat. State Rep. La Shawn Ford is well-known in the district and has Davis’ endorsement but struggles with fundraising.
In Krishnamoorthi’s district, moderate Melissa Bean has gained from nearly $4 million in support from the “Elect Chicago Women” group, which also backs Fine in the 9th district.
Critics of AIPAC argue that its actions in Illinois, particularly its secretive funding of super PACs, show that “they themselves understand how toxic they are,” according to Jeremy Ben-Ami, president of the progressive J Street group.
“In every aspect of their political efforts, they’re acting covertly,” he added.
Jessica Piper and Andrew Howard contributed reporting.
