The outcome of President Donald Trump’s redistricting efforts now hinges on Florida and its governor, Ron DeSantis, who once vied against Trump in the primaries.
Florida stands as the GOP’s most promising opportunity to regain a strategic advantage in retaining their House majority, especially after a gerrymander approved in Virginia may enable Democrats to gain up to four new seats.
Florida is under pressure to produce a new district map that could potentially secure three to five additional seats for Republicans. A special legislative session is set for next week, with both national and state Republicans relying on DeSantis to fulfill a key White House objective and prevent their nine-month redistricting efforts from falling short.
“This is honestly an all-hands-on-deck moment, because if you lose the House, you’re going to bring, essentially, the agenda to a grinding halt,” said Ford O’Connell, a GOP strategist based in Florida. “[DeSantis] does this right, and it could give rebirth to his political career.”
DeSantis ascended to the governor’s office in 2018 with strategic endorsements from Trump and gained prominence during the Covid-19 pandemic, eventually challenging Trump in the 2024 election. After Trump emerged victorious, the two mended fences, though they do not always see eye to eye.
“All eyes are on Ron DeSantis and Florida now. It’s a little poetic,” noted a Republican operative anonymously. “DeSantis has his marching orders: Take the gloves off like Democrats did in Virginia and California and draw as many districts as you can, legally, for Republicans.”
Efforts to redraw districts in Florida face political and legal hurdles. DeSantis began advocating for redistricting last summer, coinciding with the White House’s push for action in Texas. During this period, Trump’s popularity waned, and issues such as rising living costs and his involvement in Iran complicated the Republican midterm outlook.
A GOP operative, familiar with DeSantis’ plans and speaking anonymously, suggested that DeSantis is still eager to advance redistricting, though he acknowledges the challenging political environment leading up to the 2026 election, which may hinder the Republicans’ ability to keep the House.
Questions persist about the extent to which DeSantis and Florida lawmakers can legally redraw the map. The state prohibits redistricting for partisan advantage or to favor or disfavor incumbents. Democrats assert that any map revisions would violate this constitutional restriction.
DeSantis previously succeeded in implementing a congressional map that benefitted Republicans, providing hope among national Republicans that he can replicate that success.
In 2022, DeSantis’ map helped the GOP achieve a 20-8 advantage, flipping four seats, which he claimed was pivotal in regaining the House majority. Although the map withstood legal scrutiny, a new attempt could prompt numerous lawsuits, particularly with the House majority at risk. Courts may hesitate to demand a new map so close to midterms, potentially allowing Florida’s existing map to remain.
DeSantis has criticized the last U.S. Census, claiming it deprived Florida of a congressional seat. He points to population growth post-pandemic and an impending Supreme Court decision in Louisiana that might necessitate map adjustments.
He has already marked a district, previously held by Democratic Representative Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, who resigned under pressure, as one that should be redrawn.
However, DeSantis has postponed the special session by a week and has yet to release a proposed map with the session imminent. Legislative leaders expect DeSantis to ensure the process proceeds.
“By the time we get to Tallahassee, I’m sure there will be a map and the body will consider it at the right time,” stated Daniel Perez, the state House Speaker and a Miami Republican.
Some congressional Republicans, previously hesitant about redistricting, now feel compelled to act swiftly in response to developments in Virginia.
“I don’t like this redistricting in the middle of the census, but in light of what Virginia is doing, we may need to respond to that,” remarked Florida Republican John Rutherford, who had earlier cautioned against Florida redistricting.
Nonetheless, there are concerns that an aggressive plan might backfire.
Alex Alvarado, a political consultant with experience working with prominent Republicans, recently analyzed that a new map could disadvantage the GOP, given the current political environment. He predicted no net gain for Republicans and potential Democratic seat recoveries.
“We have already compacted Democrats into such tight districts, the only thing you can do when you are redrawing is cut them out of there,” Alvarado explained. “You have to place those Democratic voters somewhere.”
Adam Kincaid, the National Republican Redistricting Trust’s executive director, warned against expecting significant gains due to Florida’s “Fair Districts” rules that prohibit partisan gerrymandering.
“I don’t think you’re gonna create deep-blood-red seats all over the state,” he said. “I think we just have to wait and see what the Legislature produces.”
Democrats are poised to challenge DeSantis. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries announced their intention to target Florida and conclude the redistricting battle Trump began.
“Our message to Florida Republicans is ‘F’ around and find out,” he told reporters.
During a bill signing in Jacksonville, DeSantis appeared unfazed.
“‘We’re going to go after Florida.’ Please, be my guest,” DeSantis said of Jeffries. “I will pay for you to come down to Florida and campaign. I’ll put you up in the Florida governor’s mansion. We’ll take you fishing. We’ll do all this stuff.”
For DeSantis, the outcome of this redistricting initiative carries both political and personal significance. His second term concludes in January, and speculation abounds regarding his future ambitions beyond Florida.
“If he can deliver, it will at least give him a slingshot back into Trump’s good graces, and maybe even elevated status in the broader Republican movement,” commented another Republican strategist.
Presently, the White House appears satisfied to let DeSantis lead this effort publicly.
James Blair, Trump’s political director and a former deputy chief of staff to DeSantis, stated on CNN that he had not participated in the Florida map-drawing process. “If [DeSantis] chooses to go forward, he will draw them in a way that is compliant with the law and we’ll see what happens,” he said.
“I don’t talk to the governor, I’ve not talked to those folks about it. But again … I think their track record shows that they know how to draw maps in compliance with Florida law and the Florida constitution, and we will see what they do next week,” he added.
Mia McCarthy, Gregory Svirnovskiy, Riley Rogerson and Lisa Kashinsky contributed to this report.
