Introduction
For centuries, global economies maintained a leisurely pace of growth, akin to a slow-moving river. However, the Industrial Revolution unleashed a “Great Divergence,” propelling industrialized nations ahead in economic development at a breakneck speed.[1] Now, we find ourselves at the dawn of another potential transformation—artificial intelligence (AI)—which some argue could rival the changes brought about by the Industrial Revolution.
As the race for AI supremacy heats up, we see distinct frontrunners in investment, performance, and adoption metrics among nations. The Trump administration is diligently laying the groundwork for American leadership in AI by hastening innovation, enhancing infrastructure, and rolling back regulations, all while striving to secure global dominance through technology exports. If AI is indeed as revolutionary as its industrial predecessor, are we on the brink of a second Great Divergence? The future remains uncertain, but this analysis focuses on tangible, empirical data available today.
We will begin with an exploration of studies assessing the potential for AI-driven economic growth (Section 2), followed by an examination of projected impacts on GDP and the labor market. Given the unpredictable nature of these impacts, Section 3 will highlight key metrics for monitoring the rapid pace of AI investment, performance, and adoption. In Section 4, we will evaluate how various countries stack up against these metrics. The velocity of change is staggering; in many cases, these metrics are doubling every few months and expanding exponentially year after year. Thus, the AI landscape of tomorrow will likely bear little resemblance to that of today. We will conclude in Section 5 with a review of the proactive measures being taken by President Trump to ensure America retains its edge in AI. As he stated: “America is the country that started the AI race. And as President of the United States, I’m here today to declare that America is going to win it.”[2]
[1] Kenneth Pomeranz, The Great Divergence: China, Europe, and the Making of the Modern World Economy (Princeton University Press, 2000), https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt7sv80
[2] “Trump Advances US Leadership in AI,” Editorials, 2025,https://editorials.voa.gov/a/trump-advances-us-leadership-in-ai/8050987.html
