The 2020 Census Aftermath: A Closer Look at Redistricting Woes
Every ten years, states embark on the somewhat ritualistic task of redrawing congressional district lines, a process that ideally reflects the demographic shifts captured by the U.S. Census. However, the 2020 Census was anything but traditional, marred by significant controversies and inaccuracies. The discrepancies resulted in some states being undercounted while others enjoyed an inflated headcount, a phenomenon that coincidentally aligned with partisan voting patterns.
A report from the U.S. Census Bureau in 2022 revealed that states like Arkansas (5.04%), Florida (3.48%), Mississippi (4.11%), Tennessee (4.78%), Texas (1.92%), and Illinois (1.97%) experienced undercounts. Notably, Illinois stands out as the lone Democratic stronghold among the undercounted states.
Conversely, states such as Delaware (5.45%), Hawaii (6.79%), Massachusetts (2.24%), Minnesota (3.84%), New York (3.44%), Ohio (1.49%), Rhode Island (5.05%), and Utah (2.59%) were overcounted. Here, six of the eight states traditionally lean Democratic.
As a direct consequence of these inaccuracies, Florida could have gained an additional House seat, having missed the threshold by a mere 171,500 residents in the 2020 Census. Texas and Tennessee would have also gained seats, while Illinois still faced a loss, with its undercount not altering the fate of its congressional representation.
Ironically, the overcounted states, which tend to lean Democratic, could have experienced a loss of several seats. For instance, Minnesota barely surpassed the threshold for its eighth seat by just 26 individuals. Similarly, New York and Rhode Island were also due to lose representation. Meanwhile, Colorado gained a seat it perhaps didn’t deserve, given the inaccuracies.
This entire debacle resulted in a net shift of seven U.S. House seats, favoring Democrats—a rather ironic twist for a country that prides itself on fair representation.
In a response tinged with both frustration and a hint of political theater, former President Donald Trump called for the Department of Commerce to “immediately begin work on a new and highly accurate CENSUS,” asserting that “people who are in our Country illegally WILL NOT BE COUNTED IN THE CENSUS.”
The Texas Democrats’ Resignation Drama
Fast forward to the 2025 legislative session in Texas, where the Democrats staged a dramatic walkout, with over 50 members fleeing their seats in an effort to thwart a quorum and derail redistricting plans. This tantrum, reminiscent of a child refusing to share toys, prompted Attorney General Ken Paxton and Governor Greg Abbott to pledge to hold accountable those who vacated their responsibilities, even threatening legal action against any accomplices.
The fallout from this mid-census redistricting effort in Texas prompted other states to consider retaliatory measures. California and New York, for instance, are exploring ways to bypass their supposedly “independent” boards in order to bolster their Democratic majorities.
In a rather ironic twist, Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey hinted at potential gerrymandering efforts in response to Texas’s actions, despite her state already enjoying exclusive Democrat representation in its nine House seats. This is noteworthy, given that 36% of Massachusetts voters supported Donald Trump in the 2024 Presidential election.
New York’s representation is similarly skewed, with a 19-7 split favoring Democrats, despite only 56% of voters backing Kamala Harris in 2024. Meanwhile, California exhibits an even more pronounced Democrat bias, holding 43 out of 52 seats (an astonishing 83%) with only 58% of voters supporting Harris.
In stark contrast, Texas’s congressional representation (25-13 in favor of Republicans, or 66%) is much more reflective of the 2024 election outcome, where Trump garnered 56% of the vote—only a 10-point discrepancy from Republican representation. This stands in stark opposition to California’s 25% overrepresentation and New York’s 17% overrepresentation, not to mention Massachusetts’s staggering 36% overrepresentation.
Moreover, the entire New England region, which boasts 21 representatives across six states, has managed to exclude Republicans despite Trump winning around 40% of the vote in that area (Vermont leading with 32% and New Hampshire topping out at 48%).
Illinois, infamous for its gerrymandering practices, holds 17 representatives; despite Trump claiming 43.47% of the vote, Republicans occupy only 3 seats—merely 17.65%. This glaring discrepancy results in a staggering 28% overrepresentation of Democrats.
Wrong. Red states got nothing on blue state gerrymandering.
California:
40% of the statewide vote
17% of the seats (9 out of 52)Massachusetts:
35% of the statewide vote
0% of the seats (0 out of 9)Connecticut:
38% of the statewide vote
0% of the seats (0… https://t.co/F9NtnikHVg— Matt Whitlock (@mattdizwhitlock) August 6, 2025
Future Redistricting Efforts: A Complicated Landscape
As states grapple with the idea of redrawing district lines, they may face significant challenges ahead. New York is unlikely to successfully initiate redistricting before the 2026 midterm elections, as it requires a constitutional amendment. Governor Kathy Hochul expressed her frustration, stating, “I wish I could just call a special election and change it. I’d do it in a heartbeat,” while acknowledging the necessary legislative process.
On the other hand, California’s Governor Gavin Newsom has indicated plans to push for a statewide ballot measure to address redistricting in the upcoming election, declaring, “We’re not going to roll over…we’re going to fight fire with fire.” His bold assertion aims to neutralize Texas’s redistricting actions.
Meanwhile, other states such as Ohio, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and New Jersey are also considering redistricting initiatives. Ohio, for instance, must redraw its lines after its 2022 map was approved by a simple majority, contrary to the necessary supermajority. Florida has initiated preliminary discussions, with House Speaker Daniel Perez announcing a new redistricting committee.
Vice President JD Vance recently visited Indiana to engage with Governor Mike Braun regarding redistricting, leaving the door open for future considerations. Braun would need to convene a special legislative session, where Republicans hold a supermajority, to kick off the process.
Given the glaring discrepancies from the 2020 Census—conducted under the shadow of COVID restrictions and including counts of individuals who cannot legally vote—one might argue that a mid-decade census is warranted. The acknowledged inaccuracies alone account for at least seven House seats that would have significantly benefited Republicans. Exclude illegal migrants residing in sanctuary jurisdictions, and the number could potentially rise.
Today, the Voting Rights Act turns 60 but we’re not just marking history. We’re enforcing the law.
Under @AAGDhillon, we’re:
âś… Suing over ineligible voters on rolls
âś… Challenging race-based redistricting
âś… Demanding voter eligibility verification
✅ Protecting ballot access… pic.twitter.com/09yQAEmU6e— DOJ Civil Rights Division (@CivilRights) August 6, 2025
