Recent data from real estate data provider Attom revealed that property sales in California over the past three years have been 24% lower compared to the same period before the Great Recession, raising concerns of a potential statewide crash.
California witnessed a decline in property sales, with only 954,423 transactions in 2023-2025, down from 1.25 million in 2007-2009.
This indicates a 24% slowdown in homebuying activity in California over the past three years when compared to the period leading up to the housing crash that triggered the Great Recession.
Moreover, California’s sales pace over the past three years has decreased by 31% compared to the previous 18 years, while the nationwide drop was only 6%.
Despite the significant drop in property sales, the median home price in California has actually increased over the past three years. The statewide median home price rose by 9% from December 2022 to December 2025, reaching $710,000, just 5% below its all-time high.
During the Great Recession, many homeowners faced foreclosures as they couldn’t find buyers due to the collapse of the subprime mortgage market and the subsequent drop in property values.
Currently, California is experiencing a standoff in the housing market, where owners with low mortgage rates are reluctant to sell and move into higher rates, resulting in a frozen market.
This standoff, along with a record low supply of homes, is contributing to the high prices in the housing market.
Moreover, the first-time buyer affordability index indicates that less than a third of California households could qualify for a starter home in 2023-2025, a significant decline from 49% in 2007-2009.
While recent dips in mortgage rates offer potential relief to prospective homeowners, it is unlikely that there will be a rapid price correction in the near future.
Following the Great Recession, California saw a modest 8% growth in housing sales in the three years that followed, while home prices recovered by 15% by the end of 2012.
