Centrist Dems met to plot 2028. Then Iran happened.

CHARLESTON, S.C. — In a dramatic twist of events following the American military strikes in Iran, Third Way co-founder Matt Bennett found himself racing against the clock to craft a presentation aimed at guiding centrist Democrats on foreign policy for the 2028 election.

Speaking at Third Way’s “Winning the Middle” conference, Bennett recounted focus group findings conducted prior to the conflict in Iran, revealing a disconcerting truth: “the appetite for ongoing war among the voters we talked to was zero.” It seems that, despite the Republican stronghold on national security issues, there’s growing unease regarding President Donald Trump’s “erratic” and “unstable” foreign policy. This, Bennett argued, presents Democrats with a golden opportunity to reclaim the narrative.

“Voters are going to ask, ‘Who can steady the ship? Who’s going to avoid another endless war? Will we demand fairness from our allies?’” Bennett emphasized to an audience consisting of early-state strategists, Democratic consultants, and aides to prominent moderates and potential 2028 candidates. “You must be decisive, and you must be clear that American self-interest will drive your foreign policy.”

The air was thick with tension as the military strikes in Iran overshadowed what was intended to be a domestic policy-focused conference. As the Democratic Party grapples with how to respond to a military action that could shape the midterms, unity has emerged in their condemnation of Trump for initiating strikes without congressional approval or a coherent exit strategy.

This marks a significant shift for moderates, some of whom previously supported the Iraq War in 2003, including then-Senator Hillary Clinton. Her vote, along with then-Senator Barack Obama’s dissent, would later become a defining issue in the 2008 presidential primaries.

“Democrats don’t want a replay of the Iraq War, and they are heeding the calls of the American people to focus on issues here at home,” said Doug Thornell, a Democratic strategist who advised Maryland Gov. Wes Moore’s campaign. “This administration has done little to justify the blood and treasure of the United States in this conflict.”

Early indications suggest that public opinion is not in favor of the strikes: a Reuters/Ipsos poll found that only one in four Americans support Trump’s decision—a statistic that reverberated through the Democrats’ group chats during the conference.

While panels at the conference largely focused on domestic issues, such as “‘Affordability’: Buzzword or Breakthrough” and “Elevating Moderate Voices Online,” Third Way president Jon Cowan acknowledged the conflict shortly after the event commenced. “You can hate the regime in Iran and celebrate their downfall, but you can also be legitimately skeptical about the war, particularly considering Trump’s track record,” he remarked.

As discussions unfolded online and in media interviews, cracks began to appear within the party. Progressive voices, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), have called for an immediate cessation of hostilities. Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), currently running for governor, emphasized the need for “values-based arguments against war with Iran,” steering clear of procedural debates like “Come to Congress.” This clearly points to a divide between those advocating for a more decisive stance against the war and those, like House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who have adopted a more measured approach.

In his initial statement, Jeffries condemned Trump for bypassing congressional authorization and insisted on “aggressively confronting” Iran, adding during a CNN appearance that “nothing has been presented to justify what’s occurred thus far.”

“The crutch that the moderate, corporate wing of the party is using is a process argument,” stated Usamah Andrabi, communications director for Justice Democrats. “It’s not just about Trump skipping Congress; we need to oppose this war regardless of the process, and Democratic leadership has not made that clear enough.”

One adviser to a prospective 2028 candidate, speaking anonymously to share candid thoughts, defended the more nuanced stance among moderate Democrats, suggesting that “people recognize that simply opposing everything Trump does on foreign policy isn’t a sufficient strategy.”

The two-day conference primarily aimed to provide tough-love guidance to allies and strategists, many aligned with potential centrist candidates for 2028, including Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, and California Gov. Gavin Newsom.

With an eye toward 2028, Third Way’s senior vice president Lanae Erickson presented polling data revealing that three-quarters of Democratic primary voters prefer a candidate willing to compromise, while two-thirds express concern that nominating someone too far left could jeopardize the general election.

“If we’re going to be the ‘abolish police,’ ‘abolish ICE,’ virtue-signaling party, I don’t care who they nominate; we’re going to lose,” lamented Jim Messina, who managed Barack Obama’s campaign. “We continue to cling to ideological purity at precisely the wrong moment.”