Asteroid 2024 YR4’s Collision Risk Upgraded to 4.3% with the Moon
An asteroid that recently caught the attention of astronomers due to its high risk of colliding with Earth has now had its collision risk upgraded. Initially projected to have a 3.1 percent chance of impacting Earth in 2032, asteroid 2024 YR4’s risk has now increased to 4.3 percent – but this time with the Moon.
While a collision with the Moon would not have a significant impact on the lunar surface or its orbit, it would offer a unique opportunity to witness the formation of a large crater, making it a scientifically intriguing event.
Discovered with a calculated trajectory that initially suggested a potential collision with Earth, the asteroid’s size of 53 to 67 meters raised concerns due to its destructive potential, similar to the Tunguska event in 1908.
Fortunately, the risk of an Earth impact was quickly deemed negligible, but the Moon remained at risk with a 3.8 percent chance of a collision. Recent observations using the JWST in May 2025 have refined this calculation, increasing the risk to 4.3 percent.
While this may not be the final assessment, astronomers will have another opportunity to observe asteroid 2024 YR4 up close in December 2028 when it returns near Earth. This will provide more precise data on the likelihood of a lunar impact, offering a thrilling spectacle and valuable scientific insights.
