Joe Lau, a row crop farmer in St. Joseph, Missouri, has observed an increase in extreme weather patterns recently.
He notes warmer seasons, unexpected heavy storms bringing three inches of rain instead of the forecasted quarter-inch, and a rise in pest pressures on his corn. Additionally, he has noticed that spring is arriving earlier.
According to the USA National Phenology Network, this year, spring arrived three to five weeks earlier than the average from 1991 to 2020 in much of the central U.S., and two to three weeks earlier in the southern Midwest states. Source
Lau, who also grows soybeans, said, “I have allergies bad. And this year in particular, it’s hit me hard. It’s wild that we are talking about allergy issues in winter, but that’s technically the reality of it.”
Last month, Climate Central, a nonprofit focused on communicating climate science, released an analysis indicating that spring is arriving earlier across most of the United States from 1981 to 2025. Source
On average, leaves now appear six days earlier than they did in 1981 in 88 percent of major U.S. cities, or 212 out of 242 cities. In St. Joseph, Missouri, where Lau lives, spring leaves typically emerge two days sooner.
An earlier spring could impact agriculture, ecology, and various other sectors.
Where are spring leaves arriving earlier?
Climate Central utilized open-access data from the USA National Phenology Network, which includes information collected by volunteers and researchers studying seasonal events among plants and animals to assess ecosystem health.
The analysis relied on the NPN’s first leaf index maps, which employ models to predict the onset of spring. These models use data such as temperature and the start date of the annual “leaf-out” for lilacs and honeysuckle, found throughout the U.S.
“That very leading edge of spring is drifting earlier and has drifted, in some cases, a whole lot earlier in just that last few decades,” said Theresa Crimmins, the NPN’s director, during a briefing last month.
Héctor Alejandro Arzate
Climate Central’s analysis revealed that several cities in the Mississippi River basin are experiencing earlier springs. Hazard, Kentucky, sees leaves arriving 11 days earlier, while Memphis, Tennessee, and St. Louis, Missouri, see a seven-day advance. New Orleans, Louisiana, experiences a two-day advancement.
Most of the lower 48 states are witnessing an earlier spring, but the report notes an exception in the Northern Rockies and Plains region, where spring temperatures have either cooled or warmed “relatively slowly” since 1970.
Kaitlyn Trudeau, a climatologist with Climate Central, explained that variations in the timing of spring are likely influenced by “climate controls” such as latitude, elevation, wind patterns, proximity to water bodies, ocean currents, and topography.
“All of those different factors really dictate what your local climate is like generally,” Trudeau noted.
What does early spring mean for agriculture and more?
The early onset of spring can have significant effects, said Trudeau. Individuals with seasonal allergies, like Lau, might face more pollen exposure due to the extended growing period for plants.
Warmer temperatures may also prompt birds to migrate prematurely. The Mississippi River flyway, one of North America’s busiest migratory routes, is followed by about half of all migratory bird species from Canada to Central and South America and back.
Trudeau warned that premature migration could cause birds to miss the peak food supply, potentially disrupting synchronization with insects and flowers, thereby affecting other species.
“That can cause this ecological mismatch,” Trudeau mentioned.
Earlier springs also pose financial risks to the agriculture sector. Crops like corn, soybeans, and specialty fruits could suffer a hard freeze after early leaf-out, known as a false spring, potentially resulting in significant economic losses.
In 2017, a hard freeze in the southeastern U.S. devastated fruit crops such as peaches, pears, blueberries, strawberries, and even grass for livestock, leading to over $1 billion in losses for the agriculture industry, according to NOAA.
Trudeau emphasized, “We are so dependent upon what happens in the natural environment. And so when things start to shift and change, it’s also going to cause pretty widespread impacts for our lives.”
Growers of specialty crops, like apricot trees or iris flowers, are particularly at risk. However, row crop farmers like Lau benefit from technological advancements. Seed treatments have enabled soybean farmers to plant earlier and grow longer, boosting production.
For Lau, the impact of earlier springs has been “minimal.”
“From purely a row-crop production standpoint, the springs have been very favorable for us,” Lau explained.
However, he is concerned about increased bug activity in his fields due to warmer weather.
“I raise all non-GMO corn and so I don’t have the insect traits bred into the corn genetically modified, and so that does concern me that we’re kind of relying on what nature hands us,” Lau said.
While farmers and communities are striving to innovate and adapt to maintain production, Trudeau asserted that addressing the root cause of climate change is crucial.
“There is no substitute for dramatically reducing our carbon pollution,” she stated.
This story is a product of the Mississippi River Basin Ag & Water Desk, an independent reporting network based at the University of Missouri in partnership with Report for America, with major funding from the Walton Family Foundation.
