Individuals receiving COVID-19 vaccinations in Bangkok, Thailand in 2021
AFP via Getty Images
The global effort to develop and administer COVID-19 vaccines was a monumental undertaking, costing approximately $79 billion. However, the health and economic benefits produced in just the first year are estimated to be between $5 trillion and $38 trillion. This staggering return on investment translates to between $60 and $475 for every dollar spent, demonstrating the profound impact of vaccination efforts worldwide.
Oliver Watson, a researcher at Imperial College London, remarked, “These studies illustrate not only the life-saving potential of vaccines but also present a compelling economic case. It is hoped that this will inspire ongoing investment in vaccine innovation.”
Watson and his team did not directly assess the impact of vaccines on overall economic growth. Their research focused instead on quantifying health benefits, building on previous findings from 2022 that indicated COVID-19 vaccines prevented over 14 million deaths in their first year.
To estimate benefits from avoided infections, the research considered the workdays that were saved from illness, attaching a productivity value to those saved days. Similarly, for hospitalizations avoided, the team calculated the healthcare costs that were not incurred. For the lives saved, they assessed how many years were gained and valued those years based on societal worth or individual willingness to pay for an additional year of life—a standard practice in economic studies.
The conservative figure of $5 trillion arises from a valuation based on societal perspectives, while the higher estimate of $38 trillion stems from individual valuations of life. It is crucial to understand that considering years of life saved accounts for the actual anticipated lifespan of vaccinated individuals, indicating a more nuanced approach compared to some other estimations that may assign equal value to lives irrespective of age.
Richard Carpiano of the University of California, Riverside, commented, “This study highlights the extraordinary level of benefits and return on investment that COVID vaccines have provided globally. Such studies are crucial as policymakers make significant decisions regarding resource allocation.”
Angela Rasmussen from the University of Saskatchewan emphasized, “The analysis presents a compelling case for the excellent return on investment yielded by the COVID vaccination campaign.”
The timing of these findings is relevant, particularly in light of recent decisions by the U.S. government to cut funding for mRNA vaccine research. However, according to Watson, the publication of their findings coincided with the ongoing study and was not influenced by recent political developments.
Watson’s previous study defending the assertion that vaccines saved over 14 million lives in 2021 has faced skepticism from some groups. Critics argue that with the excess death toll from COVID-19 being higher in 2021 compared to 2020, the claims must be questionable.
Yet, Watson clarifies that 2021 saw many restrictions lifted, leading to widespread exposure to the virus, indicating that without vaccinations, the mortality rates could have been much more severe. “Such arguments do not adequately grasp the counterfactual situation,” he noted.
A separate study published in July 2024 estimated that COVID-19 vaccines worldwide saved about 2.5 million lives—significantly less than Watson’s team’s projection. This disparity arises from differing assumptions regarding infection fatality rates, immunity levels, and vaccination effectiveness.
Watson stands by the accuracy of his study’s figures, with Rasmussen also expressing skepticism toward the July report’s lower death toll assessment. “However, even if the July estimates are more accurate, saving over 2 million lives is still an extraordinary success,” she added.
While various studies have attempted to quantify lives saved due to vaccines, many have focused on specific regions. For example, a World Health Organization report indicated that COVID-19 vaccinations saved over 1.4 million lives in Europe by March 2023, aligning closely with Watson’s findings for that region.
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