Crude oil and gasoline prices experienced a volatile trading session on Wednesday, with September WTI crude oil closing down -1.24% and September RBOB gasoline closing down -0.05%. The day started with an early rally, but prices took a sharp turn lower after President Trump mentioned “great progress” in a meeting between US envoy Witkoff and Russian President Putin regarding the war in Ukraine. This led to long liquidation in crude oil as speculation arose that the US may not impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports.
Initially, crude prices surged after the dollar index fell to a 1-week low and Saudi Aramco raised the price for its Arab Light crude to Asian customers by $1 a barrel for September delivery. Additionally, the weekly EIA report released on Wednesday was bullish for crude prices.
President Trump’s threat of imposing new tariffs on countries buying Russian energy unless a ceasefire is reached by Friday added support to crude prices. JPMorgan Chase warned of the potential impact of triple-digit tariffs on Russian oil, which could lead to a supply shock due to the significant scale of Russian exports and limited OPEC spare capacity.
On the supply side, concerns about a global oil supply glut emerged after OPEC+ endorsed an additional 547,000 bpd increase in crude production for September 1. This decision aims to gradually restore a total of 2.2 million bpd of production by September 2026. The International Energy Agency warned of a surplus in the global crude oil market by Q4-2025, as OPEC July crude production fell slightly to 28.31 million bpd.
The European Union’s approval of fresh sanctions on Russian oil contributed to the bearish sentiment in the market. These sanctions include cutting off more Russian banks from the international payments system SWIFT and imposing restrictions on Russian petroleum refined in other countries.
Despite the challenges, a decline in crude oil stored on tankers worldwide and the bullish EIA report provided some support to oil prices. The report showed a larger-than-expected drawdown in crude inventories, gasoline supplies, and distillate stockpiles, while US crude oil production slightly declined.
In conclusion, the oil market remains sensitive to geopolitical developments, supply dynamics, and demand uncertainties. Investors are closely monitoring the evolving situation to navigate through the volatility in crude oil and gasoline prices.
