Highlights
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In-depth literature reviews from unbiased, reputable research institutions on crime and justice operations are uncommon.
The National Academies of Sciences analyzed over 1,000 studies on proactive policing, drawing conclusions from the most reliable evidence. They conclude that proactive policing is effective.
Subsequent research indicates a 33.8% reduction in crime and disorder in areas treated with problem-oriented policing compared to control groups.
What would be the impact if crime were reduced by a third in major cities like Memphis, Baltimore, or Chicago, where crime and fear of crime are prevalent?
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Author
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
Previously held roles include Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention and Statistics at the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse, Director of Information Services at the National Crime Prevention Council, Adjunct Associate Professor of Criminology and Public Affairs at the University of Maryland, University College, police officer, and federal senior spokesperson.
Served as an advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns and the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign, producing successful state anti-crime media initiatives.
Directed award-winning public relations efforts for national and state criminal justice agencies over 35 years, with over 50 awards. Conducted numerous interviews with national news outlets, focusing on crime statistics and research. Created the first state and federal podcasting series and developed a unique government proactive public relations style.
Holds a Certificate of Advanced Study from Johns Hopkins University.
Authored ”Success With The Media: Everything You Need To Survive Reporters and Your Organization,” available on Amazon and other bookstores.
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Notes
This article explores the policing strategies used in New York City during the 1990s, moves on to a National Academies of Sciences study of over 1,000 police studies in 2017, and ends with an updated review of proactive policing from 2020.
Visit Research Will Shape the Future of Proactive Policing from the National Institute of Justice.
Analysis
I have extensively discussed proactive policing, which involves police-initiated traffic and pedestrian stops rather than merely responding to emergency calls or routine patrols.
Every interaction with the public poses potential risks. Each stop carries significant risk.
As a new police officer, I was advised that proactive stops would eventually result in problematic situations. “Whatever you do,” I was told, “ensure you have a valid reason for the stop. If something goes wrong, the first question will be about your reason. If you stop someone for a minor infraction and it escalates, you will face scrutiny. However, stopping a known felon with a gun is different.”
The takeaway was to make solid stops. There were instances where I chose not to stop someone because it did not meet the criteria for a “good stop.”
Policing requires judgment calls and quick decisions that can impact your career and how others perceive your ability to distinguish between a good stop and one that may attract media attention.
Is it surprising that, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we lost 25,000 police personnel? Is there any doubt why our city police departments are understaffed?
Is it because the demands on police officers and agencies are potentially unrealistic?
The “New York Miracle” denotes the remarkable, historic decline in violent crime and murder rates in New York City during the 1990s.
This “miracle” was attributed to a mix of strategic changes and broader urban trends, often credited to Broken Windows policing, CompStat, increased staffing, and broader demographic and economic shifts.
Broken Windows Policing: Advocated by Police Commissioner William Bratton and Mayor Rudy Giuliani, this approach suggests that targeting minor “quality-of-life” offenses, like vandalism and public drinking, deters more severe crimes by promoting an orderly environment.
CompStat: Introduced in 1994, this tool mapped crime data to identify neighborhood trends, holding local precinct commanders accountable for crime reductions in their areas.
Increased Personnel: The city benefited from thousands of additional officers through the earlier Dinkins administration’s “Safe Streets, Safe City” initiative.
Controversies and Nuances: While the drop in crime was undeniable, the causes are debated. Critics argue that broader national trends, the decline of the crack epidemic, and demographic changes contributed to the “miracle.” Additionally, the aggressive Broken Windows approach, which resulted in numerous stop-and-frisk incidents and low-level arrests, strained relations between the NYPD and minority communities.
The takeaway was that through numerous stops and “stop and frisks,” you could significantly reduce crime and enhance safety in the city.
However, critics noted that most stops did not lead to arrests, and the legal justification for these stops was questionable. The majority did not result in arrests, and only a few resulted in summonses.
A conversation with a New York City police spokesperson revealed that they prioritized having the legal opportunity to search for guns or major drugs, regardless of the summons outcome.
Report From the National Academies of Sciences- Proactive Policing Works-2017
Comprehensive literature reviews from unbiased, esteemed research bodies on crime and justice operations are rare. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine examined over 1,000 published studies on proactive policing, basing its conclusions on the most reliable evidence.
This study is considered one of the most significant evaluations of law enforcement tactics in America. It was funded by the U.S. Justice Department’s National Institute of Justice and the Laura and John Arnold Foundation.
The focus is proactive policing versus traditional law enforcement (i.e., responding to calls and routine patrol).
In the 1970s, there was a promise of a new era in criminal justice research that would identify the most effective crime reduction strategies. However, the ensuing decades have raised more questions than provided answers.
The main finding of the report is that the research does not provide strong enough evidence to draw firm, long-term conclusions for many efforts. The data indicates that most proactive police efforts work in the short term, although the long-term effects remain uncertain.
However, there is little high-quality research available for most crime control studies across various topics. The fact that proactive policing strategies did show reductions in crime is noteworthy, especially considering the 1,000 reports reviewed, with researchers focusing only on those with a strong methodological framework.
As I write this in 2026, there is no comparable crime control study in terms of the number of studies considered and the prestige of the National Academy of Sciences.
A newer study on problem-oriented policing was conducted in 2020.
Problem-oriented policing (POP) was developed to focus police on proactively addressing chronic problems rather than relying on traditional reactive efforts. POP has been used to target a wide range of issues and is commonly implemented in agencies across the United States and globally, though its application is often inconsistent.
The review also assessed the impacts of POP on crime displacement, police financial costs, and non-crime outcomes.
Data Collection and Analysis
Researchers identified 39 new studies (published between 2006 and 2018) that met the criteria for evaluating POP. Twenty-four of these studies had sufficient data to calculate an effect size. Including the 10 studies from the initial systematic review of POP, these 34 studies were part of the meta-analytic review of POP. Nine of these were randomized experiments, and 25 were quasi-experiments.
Results
The meta-analyses suggest statistically significant impacts of POP, with a 33.8% reduction in crime/disorder in the POP treatment areas/groups relative to the controls.
Researchers found no evidence of significant crime displacement due to POP but some evidence of a diffusion of crime control benefits. Few studies assessed non-crime outcomes, but the narrative review suggests POP is cost-effective, though it has limited impacts on fear of crime, legitimacy, and collective efficacy.
Their review provides strong and consistent evidence that POP is an effective strategy for reducing crime and disorder. Thirty-one out of 34 studies (91.2%) showed effect sizes in favor of a treatment effect, and the overall mean effect is positive and significant.
Conclusions
What would be the outcome if crime were reduced by a third in Memphis, Baltimore, Chicago, or any other large city facing crime and fear of crime issues? Would it foster prosperity in these cities?
Despite the positive outcomes, I suggest that most jurisdictions prefer to use proactive policing strategies cautiously. Many high-profile use-of-force cases involved proactive measures.
This has led to self-imposed constraints by police officers. The argument is that cases generating negative publicity involved a small fraction of officers among over one million police personnel. Officers believe judging the entire force based on a few individuals’ actions is unfair.
It is a well-established finding in criminology that crime and the fear of crime significantly hinder economies, jobs, and student test scores and cause substantial physical and psychological harm, especially to children.
However, city managers may ask, “Why take the risk?” Some police chiefs may share this sentiment. Individual officers and agency leaders face risks with every decision that could lead to controversy.
The police strategies discussed meet exceptionally high scientific standards for social science research. Most crime-control research does not. This does not mean agencies should cease experimenting with new approaches. It means these approaches should undergo independent evaluation using rigorous methods and be replicated in multiple jurisdictions before drawing broad conclusions.
Yet, when high-quality evidence indicates that a policing strategy can significantly reduce crime, many jurisdictions hesitate to employ it due to legal, political, and reputational risks. This tension deserves more discussion than it currently receives.
I am unaware of any other social science area where we claim to know a strategy works and benefits society, yet we are reluctant to use it.
If police officers are concerned about the repercussions of their actions with every legal and well-intended stop, then cities suffer.
There is no justification for officers who do not adhere to the rules and make stops based on anything other than impartial, objective evidence. No one condones police misuse of power.
However, if I were still in policing, I would be cautious of anything beyond very clear probable cause involving a serious misdemeanor or felony. Without clear directions from city and police management, many opt to limit their proactive policing.
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