Democrats’ Texas Dream Fades Amid Uncertainty
The bright hopes of Democrats to turn Texas blue have quickly dimmed, much like the fading light of a sunset over the Lone Star State. While enthusiasm for their Senate nominee, James Talarico, remains palpable, the national Democratic establishment is now hesitating on how much support to lend him—especially if Sen. John Cornyn emerges victorious from the GOP runoff in May.
Interviews with multiple high-dollar donor advisers and strategists reveal a notable lack of confidence in the party’s ability to mount a serious challenge in Texas. “No one’s taking Texas seriously,” lamented one anonymous Democratic bundler, highlighting the increasingly cautious attitude within party ranks about investing heavily in the state.
The looming concern is that Cornyn, who performed unexpectedly well in the GOP primary against Attorney General Ken Paxton, might gain an endorsement from former President Donald Trump, which could secure him an easy victory in the runoff. Democrats once envisioned a showdown with Paxton—a candidate mired in scandal and a darling of the MAGA movement—only to now face the daunting prospect of unseating a 24-year moderate incumbent in a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator in nearly four decades.
Competing priorities for national resources further complicate matters. Just this week, Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) dropped his re-election bid in a state that Democrats managed to hold as recently as 2018, potentially shifting the focus and funds toward that battleground.
As Democrats weigh their options, they face the harsh reality that contesting Texas would demand an immense influx of cash, while other, less expensive options appear more appealing on the Senate landscape. “We have to be practical about how we use our resources,” said Alex Hoffman, a Democratic donor adviser. “You need a perfect storm to catch a white whale, and if it’s going to be Cornyn [in the general election], then it’s not a perfect storm.”
For years, Democrats have dreamt of flipping Texas. Yet, the notion of achieving that—let alone regaining the Senate—seemed far-fetched last year when the party suffered significant losses and public polling hit new lows. However, a string of surprising victories in off-year and special elections, coupled with Trump’s persistently low approval ratings, have left Democrats feeling cautiously optimistic about their chances.
“If I’m being super honest, Texas wouldn’t be on our radar if it weren’t for the current political climate,” remarked Tory Gavito, a Democratic donor who leads the progressive donor network Way To Win. The recent primary results provided a boost for Talarico, who decisively defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas). He now has a head start on Republicans, who have already spent $70 million to bolster Cornyn, and must continue their internal battle for another two and a half months through a costly runoff.
Texas Democrats view this as a crucial moment. Gavito argues that the party has been building toward this opportunity for cycles. After President Barack Obama’s 2014 victory, which was bolstered by a young, multi-racial coalition, Democrats believed it was only a matter of time before Texas would flip. However, Trump’s victories in 2016 and 2024 diminished the advantages Democrats had with young, diverse voters, indicating that the road to flipping Texas may be longer than anticipated.
Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke came closest in 2018 to unseating Sen. Ted Cruz, losing by a narrow margin of 2.6 percentage points, while former Rep. Colin Allred’s attempt in 2024 resulted in an 8.5-point loss to Cruz. Gavito stressed the importance of investment from Senate leadership, particularly Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and the Senate Majority PAC, to truly challenge for Texas. “Even though Talarico can raise significant non-corporate funds, it’s vital for leadership to be bullish,” she stated, adding that Democrats shouldn’t have to choose between investing in Texas or other states; they should do both.
Nevertheless, asking for more resources is a tall order, especially in an election cycle where Democrats already face a significant fundraising disadvantage. House and Senate Republicans entered 2026 with over twice the cash reserves of their Democratic counterparts, while the Republican National Committee boasts a cash advantage exceeding $100 million over the Democratic National Committee. If the Supreme Court decides to lift coordination limits, several donor advisers predict that Republican advantages could grow even larger.
“If the objective is to win back the House and Senate, there are other, cheaper, and more competitive states to focus on,” cautioned a Democratic consultant with experience in Senate races. “Do you want to allocate another $150 million for Texas or invest $50 million to make Iowa, Montana, or Nebraska competitive? That’s the calculation Schumer has to make.”
Before the primary, Schumer had not prioritized Texas in the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s (DSCC) top tier of battleground races. Instead, North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, and Alaska were at the forefront of his offensive targets. However, this could shift if Paxton emerges victorious from the runoff.
“If Paxton wins the runoff, the race will be on the battleground list,” noted a source familiar with the DSCC’s internal discussions. “If Cornyn makes it out, I wouldn’t rule it out either.” After Tuesday’s primary, Schumer remarked, “Tuesday’s results in Texas are a step forward in our quest to win the Senate,” and lauded Talarico as a formidable candidate with a pathway to victory.
Republicans, however, remain skeptical about Texas becoming competitive. NRSC Regional Press Secretary Samantha Cantrell dismissed Talarico’s campaign, highlighting his progressive positions as out of touch with Texas voters. “James Talarico thinks ‘God is nonbinary,’ wants to lay a welcome mat on our southern border, and would prioritize the rights of our ‘trans community’, all things Texans will never vote for in November,” she stated.
Even if the Democrats fall short in flipping Texas this November, they believe that Talarico’s campaign—and a potentially weakened Cornyn—could force the GOP to expend significant resources defending the seat, turning it into what some are calling a “money sinkhole for Republicans.” “Could this help us win Ohio by just one percentage point?” pondered Cooper Teboe, a Democratic donor adviser and strategist.
Some Republican strategists are wary of this scenario. “In every race from now until November, there will always be Texas undertones: You spent $70 million to protect an incumbent,” remarked a GOP strategist, who preferred to remain anonymous for candidness. “There’s a sense of frustration among the consulting class, wondering if we can focus more on Georgia and Michigan instead of pouring resources into Texas.”
Erin Doherty contributed to this report.
