Elise Stefanik just 5 points behind ‘deeply vulnerable’ Kathy Hochul in NY governor’s race: internal poll

New York Governor Kathy Hochul is holding a narrow lead of just five percentage points over potential Republican contender Elise Stefanik for the 2026 election, a recent internal poll reveals. The poll indicates that Hochul’s advantage diminishes when voters become aware of both candidates’ backgrounds.

Initially, the poll has Stefanik trailing Hochul 48% to 43%. However, when voters who are likely to participate in the 2026 election learn about Hochul’s endorsement of New York City’s leading mayoral candidate and socialist Zohran Mamdani, she falls behind Stefanik, 46.4% to 45.9%.

If Mamdani emerges victorious in the mayoral race, 47% of independent voters indicated they would be less likely to support Hochul or other Democrats in upcoming midterm elections, according to the findings.

The survey, commissioned by Stefanik’s fundraising committee E-PAC, highlighted that likely gubernatorial voters are dissatisfied with Hochul, particularly regarding her support for bail reform and economic issues.

Currently, Hochul’s job approval rating is deficient, with 56% of voters disapproving of her performance compared to 39% who approve. Moreover, over half of those surveyed expressed strong disapproval of her governance.

In the months leading up to the election, only 34% of likely voters indicated they would vote for Hochul again, while 59% expressed a desire for a new leader.

Landon Wall, a pollster from Grayhouse, noted that the survey of 1,250 likely voters for the 2026 midterms paints a picture of Hochul as “deeply vulnerable.”

“Kathy Hochul’s coalition is fragile, with weak support from her voter base, a significant demand for change, and her endorsement of the politically controversial Zohran Mamdani alienating independents,” Wall stated in a memo detailing the poll’s insights.

“The data overwhelmingly indicates unprecedented vulnerability for an incumbent Democrat Governor in New York, presenting Republicans with a viable opportunity to win,” he added.

During a hypothetical Democratic primary against Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, who intends to challenge Hochul, the poll revealed that the governor has only 43% support from New Yorkers, while 14% would back Delgado, 15% chose another candidate, and 28% were undecided.

“A sitting Governor lacking majority support from her party signifies considerable vulnerability,” Wall remarked, characterizing Hochul as one of the most at-risk incumbents nationwide.

Stefanik, who is expected to officially announce her gubernatorial campaign after the November midterm elections, is likely to secure the GOP nomination with relative ease.

“The data clearly show that Kathy Hochul, recognized as the worst Governor in America, is facing remarkable unpopularity and is struggling even to maintain support among her party,” Stefanik asserted in a statement.

“It’s evident why Kathy Hochul endorsed the Communist Antisemite candidate for New York City Mayor—she desperately needed to rally her party’s support,” continued the House Republican Leadership chairwoman. “Kathy Hochul has significantly harmed New York State by creating an affordability crisis, marked by the highest taxes in the country and escalating energy, rent, and grocery costs.”

“Hochul’s governance, characterized by a one-party Democratic rule leading to an affordability crisis, along with crime issues stemming from ineffective bail reform and sanctuary state policies prioritizing criminals over New Yorkers, represents a significant political disaster for Hochul.”

Advising the Stefanik campaign, Alex deGrasse pointed out that the troubling poll results come ahead of her official campaign announcement.

“What’s truly extraordinary about this poll is it reflects voter sentiment even before Elise has formally declared her candidacy for Governor,” deGrasse stated. “There is a clear reason why Kathy is responding defensively.”