Recently, The Economist published an article titled ‘Brazil’s president is losing clout abroad and unpopular at home’, which paints a rather unflattering portrait of Lula da Silva’s presidency. It suggests that his foreign policy is misguided and that domestically, he’s become a figure of discontent.
Lula appears to be overstepping his bounds, engaging in matters beyond Brazil’s scope of influence while neglecting pressing issues that actually require his attention, such as the situation in Venezuela and regional instability.
As the BRICS nations convene in Rio de Janeiro for their annual summit, the absence of both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping casts a long shadow over the proceedings, diminishing their significance and reflecting poorly on Lula’s diplomatic efforts.
Putin’s absence is primarily due to Brazil’s membership in the International Criminal Court (ICC), which has issued an arrest warrant for him. This situation highlights the peculiarities of international law, where the ICC is often perceived as a “court for the gullible,” with major powers like the US, Russia, and China opting out.
Interestingly, several countries have chosen to overlook the warrant against Putin; for instance, Hungary has publicly stated it would welcome him, and Mongolia has effectively hosted him despite its ICC membership. However, Lula’s waning popularity prevents him from making such contentious decisions.
Following Putin’s lead, Xi Jinping also opted out of attending the summit. Speculation suggests that this decision may stem from a diplomatic faux pas involving Lula’s wife, Janja, who reportedly criticized TikTok during Lula’s earlier visit to China. Yet, a more straightforward interpretation is that Xi is sending a message to Lula regarding his inability to secure Putin’s attendance.
When Lula began his current term, he faced pressure from the Biden administration to publicly denounce Putin for the conflict in Ukraine. The backlash was swift, with China canceling Lula’s trip to Beijing, citing health concerns. This series of diplomatic missteps has left Brazil’s leadership in a precarious position.
The spotlight now shifts to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, alongside Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, as the primary figures at the summit, while Russia and China send their foreign ministers, Sergei Lavrov and Wang Yi, to represent their interests.
During the tumultuous Biden administration, BRICS gained significant traction, particularly with its focus on dedollarization. However, with Trump’s return to the political arena, the geopolitical dynamics have shifted dramatically, demanding more adept leadership than Lula da Silva has demonstrated thus far.
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