The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is impacting food prices, as anticipated, three months since the conflict began, according to Infometrics. The potential for relief following a slight decrease in fuel prices remains uncertain.
Infometrics has unveiled its latest grocery supplier cost index, revealing what suppliers are charging Foodstuffs supermarkets. Costs have risen by 2.1%, although a broader range of products have seen increased costs, noted chief executive Brad Olsen.
“As was expected, numerous cost adjustments related to the Middle East conflict have materialized, with June 2026 recording the fifth-highest number of monthly cost changes since 2018 across various products,” Olsen stated.
He further explained, “Only half of June’s increases were directly tied to fuel adjustments, indicating a persistent and broad underlying trend of cost increases. However, evidence suggests these increases have been less severe than initially anticipated, limiting the extent of cost hikes across different products.”
From May to June, the cost of over 6,900 products saw an increase, with about 6,500 of those experiencing hikes of less than 20%.
“Approximately half of these increases resulted from fuel adjustments following earlier fuel price rises,” Olsen explained.
Olsen expressed uncertainty about future trends, noting that while oil prices have risen again amid escalating tensions, the overall pressure is mixed. “There’s definitely some pressure that has returned, but also some that has eased. It’s challenging to predict the outcome,” he said.
He remarked that the current fuel prices had not risen as much as expected, given the current geopolitical tensions. “Previously, such widespread missile and drone attacks would have pushed prices over $US100 ($NZ173) a barrel, but now the market is barely reaching $US80,” he observed.
Olsen also pointed to potential concerns with fertiliser costs, which might not be directly impacted yet but could remain high through the year’s second half, coinciding with increased purchasing periods.
Supplier costs experienced increases across all departments in June compared to the previous year, though a decrease in beer prices helped slow liquor cost increases. Notable rises were seen in fruits, fish fillets and shellfish, fries, hashbrowns, and berries, resulting in higher average costs in produce, seafood, and frozen food departments. Despite a slight drop in bread costs, items in the canned and packaged grocery categories, such as canned tuna, packaged milks, noodles, and bottled sauces, saw price increases.
Stats NZ is set to release the official food price data later this week.
Â
