Historians Offer A Dire Warning To U.S. Ahead Of Its 250th Birthday

As the United States approaches its 250th anniversary, two historians of some of the world’s longest-standing democracies argue that the nation’s future could hinge on Americans reviving a waning civic skill: compromise.

Josiah Ober, a political scientist, historian, and senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, emphasized the necessity of compromise for the U.S. to endure another 250 years. “We have to figure out a way to compromise, to strike bargains,” he stated. “Without bargaining, the whole collective self-government thing goes down the tube.”

Ober, along with historian Brook Manville, has extensively studied the successes and failures of past democracies, drawing lessons applicable to today from Ancient Athens, the Roman Republic, Great Britain’s constitutional monarchy, and the founding of the U.S. Their insights are detailed in their book, The Civic Bargain: How Democracy Survives.

Reflecting on the current state of the U.S., Ober remarked, “We’re not in the worst shape,” yet he noted troubling signs reminiscent of those that preceded the collapse of other democracies.

He and Manville identified several challenges, including citizen infighting, severe political polarization, and a decline in civic engagement and education.

Manville added that political divides, seen in past democracies, often either lead to resolution or downfall. “A lot of these things we have seen before,” he said. “The key thing is not, ‘is this worse than what we did before?’ but rather, ‘is there a chance to recover in a way that we’ve recovered in the past?’”

Manville explained how Classical Athens’ democracy, after suffering from infighting, political instability, and a significant war, was able to rebound by addressing its mistakes. In contrast, the Romans’ efforts at recovery failed, leading to the fall of the Roman Republic.

Ober pointed out, “Can it be turned around? Yes. There are examples of this.” However, if change doesn’t occur, he warned, “could the whole thing go down the tubes and could you have a boot on your neck in the next generation? Yes. That could happen.”

For greater stability, the U.S. must revisit its foundational principles of self-government and acknowledge the significance of the Declaration of Independence’s signing, a pivotal agreement that came before the more contentious U.S. Constitution, according to Ober and Manville.

The nation’s founders faced disagreements over issues like taxes, slavery, wartime disruptions, and fears of British resurgence. Their initial constitution, the Articles of Confederation, proved ineffective. The final version, now amended 27 times, was deemed “the best bargain available,” as Ober noted.

Ober emphasized that democracy should be an evolving process, continually improving through renegotiation. He warned that a failure to compromise and show mutual respect can foster an adversarial mindset where “you don’t bargain with your enemies, you destroy them.”

The concept of an “enemy within” has gained traction in recent years, reflecting growing national divides.

An academic analysis highlighted that President Donald Trump, like his predecessors, frequently used the term “evil” to describe foreign threats during his first term. More recently, he has applied it to political opponents, journalists, federal prosecutors, and critics.

A University of Cambridge study revealed that social and political division in the U.S. has surged by 64% since 1988, with most of the increase occurring in the last 18 years. A Pew Research Poll from last month found that Democrats and Republicans prioritize advancing their own agendas over finding common ground, with members from each party holding highly unfavorable views of their counterparts.

Partisan deadlocks among lawmakers have also led to more frequent government shutdowns, the latest of which lasted a record 76 days.

Ober acknowledged the current challenges, saying, “We’re in a difficult time,” and he cautioned that if democracies fail, “there’s gonna be a boss. There will be some individual, or some gang will take over, and they will tell you what to do. If they’re not entirely aligned with your preferred way of doing things, you’re going to suffer from that.”

Nevertheless, both historians see potential for improvement.

According to polls consistently show, most Americans desire both political parties to work together to address issues. Ober also noted that many people are actively working toward solutions, stating, “there are plenty of people who are really putting their shoulder to the wheel and saying, ‘Let’s start here.’”

Efforts to enhance civic engagement include expanding civic education in schools and fostering community outreach through nonpartisan organizations (a list is available on Manville’s website).

Additional actions include organizing neighborhood cleanups, participating in local charity work, and attending school board or city government meetings, all of which foster a sense of community belonging, as outlined by the nonpartisan National League of Cities.

Historical lessons underscore the value of public service, as seen in past democracies.

In all three historical democracies examined, frequent warfare required citizens to serve in the military, fostering a “sense of responsibility that goes along with the freedoms and privileges of citizenship,” according to Manville.

Such unity was evident in the U.S. during World War II, when Americans fought side by side, reinforcing what Manville described as a “certain positive ethos.”

“They defended certain things that were the American way, and out of that came a certain positive ethos,” Manville said.

Regardless of the current situation, Manville and Ober emphasized that the U.S. has made significant progress and is better off now than in earlier times.

Ober remarked on the nation’s resilience, saying, “Having made it this far is really remarkable; having survived a nightmare civil war is remarkable.” He added, “The Jim Crow era was just horrific; we survived that.”

Reflecting on the milestone, Manville commented, “The birthday card should be, ‘Congratulations, you made it this far.’”

While perfection may be elusive and challenges persist, Ober and Manville believe standards can evolve through active civic bargaining.

“Everyone gets sick when they’re growing up,” Manville noted, “but the strong and healthy bounce back.”