Inside the blame game roiling Georgia's GOP Senate primary

Once considered a prime target for Senate seat gains, Georgia now sees Republicans embroiled in internal conflict, jeopardizing their efforts to unseat Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff. The GOP faces challenges with a crowded field, no clear leader, and a lack of endorsement from President Donald Trump. As a result, the May 19 primary is expected to lead to a costly runoff in mid-June.

Currently, Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.), a Trump ally, leads in public polling. He is closely followed by Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) and Derek Dooley, a former football coach backed by Gov. Brian Kemp. However, a significant portion of voters remains undecided, highlighting the race’s unpredictability. Meanwhile, Ossoff, facing no primary competition, has prepared a substantial campaign fund for the general election.

A GOP operative, speaking anonymously, suggested that if Ossoff could design the primary scenario to his advantage, this chaotic situation would be it. They noted that Georgia feels neglected by Washington.

Republicans attribute their predicament to several missteps. Some believe the issues stem from last year’s failure to persuade the popular outgoing GOP governor, Kemp, to run for Ossoff’s seat. Others criticize the National Republican Senatorial Committee for not recruiting stronger candidates or unifying the field. Disagreements between Trump and Kemp, who have a strained relationship, are also blamed for the lack of a unified candidate.

Cole Muzio, president of the conservative Frontline Policy Council, expressed disappointment at the likelihood of a runoff, lamenting that a unity candidate was ideal but never realized. The finger-pointing among a dozen GOP strategists and officials in Georgia reveals their frustration with the primary’s state and its impact on their Senate majority prospects. The GOP is contending with strong Democratic challengers in multiple red states, heightening the importance of winning Georgia.

A Georgia-based Republican strategist, unaffiliated with any campaign, described the situation as a mess, suggesting it could have been avoided with earlier solutions. The strategist noted that everyone anticipates a May primary followed by a June runoff, leaving them to address the aftermath.

Early general election polls indicate Ossoff leading all three potential GOP candidates in direct contests. With five years in the Senate, he has established a strong political operation, achieved narrow statewide victories, and secured significant fundraising.

Ryan Mahoney, a GOP strategist with no ties to the race, highlighted Ossoff’s $24 million fund and constant media presence. Mahoney noted that while Ossoff is focused and well-resourced, Republicans are engaged in internal battles to determine a nominee. Mahoney concluded that Ossoff holds a favorable position.

Despite these challenges, several Republicans remain optimistic about their chances in a state Trump won in 2024. They anticipate increased financial and external support once a nominee emerges.

A second GOP strategist admitted the party created its own problems, arguing that while a Republican victory is possible, the process has become unnecessarily difficult.

Approximately 40 percent of likely GOP primary voters remain undecided, according to recent polls. The Senate candidates are seeking Trump’s endorsement, which could significantly influence the race’s outcome.

All three candidates have engaged with the White House. In a podcast interview with conservative host Clay Travis, Dooley described a “very engaging conversation” he had with Trump in the Oval Office last year. Carter mentioned ongoing communication with the administration about the race. Collins has also met with the president, and they discussed the race. In February, Collins joined the president on stage at an event in Rome, Georgia, centered on Trump’s economic agenda.

Collins’ campaign recently issued a memo arguing why the party should unite around him in the primary. The memo warns that Democrats are observing Republicans turn a significant opportunity into a wasteful internal dispute, leaving the GOP nominee with only four months to campaign against Ossoff across Georgia after a runoff.

While most outside groups await a clear front-runner, the Club for Growth PAC has already endorsed Collins, a rare move for a group usually aligned with the White House’s strategy.

The White House did not respond to requests for comments on Trump’s views regarding the primary or his talks with the candidates.

Another complicating factor is Kemp’s involvement. After deciding not to run, Republicans feared the primary would become a proxy war between him and Trump, who have clashed over the 2020 election’s legitimacy. Though Trump has stayed out of the race, Kemp’s support for Dooley, the former football coach, suggests they won’t reach a consensus.

Dooley’s lack of political experience and his voting record, which shows he did not participate in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, are points of contention. However, he did vote for Trump in 2024.

A local GOP strategist unaffiliated with the race observed that the candidate profiles favored by Trump and Kemp differ significantly, complicating the emergence of a consensus candidate.

Kemp spokesperson Garrison Douglas reaffirmed the governor’s support for Dooley, dismissing anonymous consultants’ criticisms. Dooley’s spokesperson, Connor Whitney, expressed confidence that Georgia voters would choose the only political outsider in the race.

Carter spokesperson Chris Crawford dismissed criticism of the primary’s disarray, asserting that “only in Washington do consultants think voters choosing their nominee is a problem.”

In a statement, Collins expressed confidence in winning the primary and welcomed any assistance to secure victory in May and focus on the general election.

As the situation in Georgia remains uncertain, some local Republicans worry that Washington’s focus is shifting to Michigan, where former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers has united the party and gained presidential backing in the state’s key Senate race, while Democrats face their own primary challenges.

A national Republican involved in midterm strategy described Georgia as still a top race, despite Michigan’s clear field. They believe Georgia remains competitive, especially if Republicans can unite.

Nick Puglia, a spokesperson for the NRSC, stated that Ossoff is the most vulnerable incumbent and that Georgia is crucial for expanding Trump’s Senate majority. However, skepticism persists among Republicans in Georgia.

A fourth GOP strategist in Georgia noted that some Republicans view Michigan as a better opportunity due to a clear field, while a second strategist suggested D.C. is focusing on Michigan to address a solvable issue.