Is FBI Data A Reliable Count Of National Crime?

Highlights

This article is available as a YouTube podcast.

FBI crime statistics depict crime trends based on incidents reported to law enforcement, yet they are incomplete representations of total victimization.

For instance, there are 120 million porch package thefts annually in the U.S. Surveys reveal there are far more porch-pirate thefts than the total number of property crimes reported to the FBI.

Only twenty-three percent of porch package thefts are reported to the authorities.

Many categories of violent and property crimes have low reporting rates.

Using crimes reported to law enforcement as a measure of all crimes in America is fraught with methodological challenges. This is why I, along with many criminologists, rely on the USDOJ’s National Crime Victimization Survey from the Bureau of Justice Statistics, which records all crime (with some exceptions). The NCVS is described by the US Department of Justice as “the nation’s primary source of information on criminal victimization.” 

While the FBI measures reported crime, the public encounters total crime.

CrimeinAmerica.Net-Chat GPT’s “Top 10 Sources for Crime in America” based on primary statistical sources with trusted secondary analysis.

Article

According to the FBI, national reported U.S. property crime trends for December 2024 – November 2025 show a 12.1 percent decrease at the time of writing.

The FBI also notes a national 10 percent reduction in violent crime.

Personal Experience-Reporting Crimes

I once had a chainsaw stolen from my house during its construction. Did I report it? No. The chance of local police recovering it was slim, so I didn’t see the point.

When my retirement badge was stolen from my truck, I did report it because it could be used in criminal activities.

A family member was threatened with violence, but I didn’t report it. Instead, I had someone warn the person to stop, which resolved the issue.

These examples highlight the challenges of using crimes reported to the police to indicate the total number of crimes.

Issues With Reported Crime

Most crimes are not reported to law enforcement. About 30 percent of property crimes are reported, and property crimes represent approximately 70 percent of all crimes. About half of violent crimes are reported, according to the Bureau of Justice Statistics. 

There are numerous issues in understanding crime in America beyond the low percentages of crimes reported to police, such as the number of crimes reported per incident (up to 10) included in the FBI’s new National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) statistics.

The FBI maintains the practice of reporting one primary crime per incident for national statistics, not including additional crimes reported through NIBRS. This keeps crime trends consistent over time; a reasonable choice.

However, the additional crimes per incident (up to 10) are used in special reports via the FBI’s NIBRS. Higher numbers lead to better insights.

A key concern is whether law enforcement consistently reports all crimes per incident to the FBI. In my experience, police agencies have been hesitant to increase their crime totals by adding all charges per incident, which might explain the delay in adopting the NIBRS system. 

Property Crimes

Some figures below originate from private surveys, not official USDOJ statistics. Key issues:

• Methodologies vary significantly; results are not directly comparable to FBI totals.
• Some private surveys estimate tens of millions of package thefts annually, which, if accurate, would exceed reported FBI property crime totals. These estimates rely on self-reported data and are not directly comparable to official statistics.
• Nevertheless, the data below (using various dates) offers insight into the extent of national property crimes.

According to Gallup, theft is the most common crime among Americans, with 14% reporting money or property theft in the past year. Vandalism follows at 12%.

According to Pew, about a third of Americans have experienced an online shopping scam.

Overall, individuals aged 60 and older reported losing $2.4 billion in 2024 to fraud, including losses from investment scams, according to the Federal Trade Commission’s annual report to Congress. This marks a 26.3% increase from $1.9 billion in 2023.

Retail shrinkage, which includes shoplifting, organized attacks, and employee theft, reached $94.5 billion in 2021, a 53% rise from 2019, according to the National Retail Federation’s annual survey of 60 retail member companies as reported by CNN. Data from multiple sources suggests shoplifting losses continue to rise.

The National Retail Federation reports $112.1 billion in losses due to shrinkage, mostly theft and organized retail crime (ORC), in 2022, a 19% increase from the previous year. Retailers noted a 93% increase in the average number of shoplifting incidents annually in 2023 compared to 2019, and a 90% rise in dollar loss due to shoplifting in the same period, according to The Impact of Retail Theft & Violence 2024.

There are 120 million porch package thefts in the U.S. annually. Searches for “stolen package” spike each December, as indicated by Google Trends. Surveys show there are far more porch-pirate thefts than the total number of property crimes reported to the FBI. These thefts cost $16 billion.

Inside Edition reported on storage unit thefts, noting that storage companies often do not report break-ins to law enforcement. A Denver storage company experienced 55 burglaries in one year.

USA Today reported that scammers and cybercriminals stole a record $16.6 billion from Americans in 2024, a 33% increase from 2023, according to the FBI. The FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) noted that this record is likely an undercount as it represents only information and complaints submitted by victims to the IC3.

The Hill, the newspaper of Congress, addressed cargo theft. Known figures are concerning. The average value of each cargo theft exceeds $200,000. The National Insurance Crime Bureau reports a 1,500 percent increase in cargo theft incidents since 2021. Total cargo theft losses rose by 27 percent in 2024 and are projected to increase by another 22 percent in 2025.

Check fraud. This is not an isolated issue. A recent report from the FBI and the United States Postal Inspection Service reveals cases of check fraud nearly doubled between 2021 and 2023 nationwide.

According to Pew, most U.S. adults (73%) report having encountered some kind of online scam or attack across age groups, with many receiving scam calls, texts, and emails at least weekly.

Data from the agencies mentioned above includes various dates, suggesting increases. These increases may (or may not) be reflected in FBI property crime statistics.

Violent Crime 

Incidents of domestic violence with extreme violence, including multiple homicides, are on the rise. According to the Washington Post, “We’re seeing a lot more survivors who have been shot or stabbed.”

Domestic assaults with a deadly weapon have increased by 186 percent compared to last year, according to D.C. police, and account for nearly 90 percent of all such assaults.

Domestic violence is measurable in FBI data but not easily visible. The FBI does not publish a single, headline “domestic violence” metric. It collects victim–offender relationship data (spouse, boyfriend/girlfriend, family, etc.), which allows analysts to extract “domestic” incidents from broader crime categories.

According to an FBI special report (2026), over the five years studied, the percentage of violent crimes within domestic relationships increased. Law enforcement reported more than 11,000 domestic violence murder victims and an additional 1.1 million victims of domestic violence. Nearly 75 percent of the victims were female.

Yet as of this writing, the FBI is reporting a national 10 percent decrease in violence.

The report above relies on the increased number of crimes counted by the FBI’s National Incident-Based Reporting System (10 per incident), while national FBI crime statistics offer one primary crime per category. 

Violent Crime And Reported Crimes

Seventy-four percent of violent victimizations against juveniles were not reported to the police, and juvenile crime appears to be increasing in some cities.

For identity theft, approximately 7 percent of incidents were reported per the Bureau of Justice Statistics.

Thirteen percent of sexual assaults are reported to law enforcement in urban areas, according to the Bureau of Justice Statistics.

Approximately 12,000 hate crime incidents were reported to the FBI, while roughly 250,000 yearly hate crime incidents were recorded by the Bureau of Justice Statistics National Crime Victimization Survey in 2023. When making policy, it’s essential to rely on the largest number possible.

There are many more examples that could be provided based on unreported crimes.

Conclusions

Crime statistics are accurate, but they don’t provide the full picture. Anyone can make any claim about crime using FBI or National Crime Victimization Survey data.

The FBI measures reported crime, whereas the public encounters total crime.

Using crimes reported to law enforcement to gauge all crimes in America is filled with methodological pitfalls, which is why I rely on the USDOJ’s National Crime Victimization Survey from the Bureau of Justice Statistics, which records all crime (with some exceptions, i.e., it surveys people over the age of 12, business crimes are not included, homicides are not counted—you can’t interview dead people).

The NCVS is what the US Department of Justice calls “the nation’s primary source of information on criminal victimization.” 

The National Crime Victimization Survey recorded a record 44 percent increase in violent crime rates in 2022, and rates have remained the same per the USDOJ’s Bureau of Justice Statistics in 2023 and 2024 (last full report). The FBI is reporting decreased crime.

Yet, the use of crime data as reported to law enforcement has been around since the 1930s; it’s what people (and journalists) are familiar with. 

In my opinion, it may be a troubling (inaccurate?) source of information on crime. Still, as long as people understand its pitfalls, it provides us with decades of reasonably accurate crime trend data.

Nevertheless, when it comes to crime numbers, it’s likely inaccurate. FBI statistics remain important, but incomplete, measures of crime in America.

ChatGPT

ChatGPT fact-checked this article and provided insights and sources.

Privacy Policy

We do not collect your personal information. See our privacy policy at “About This Site.”

See More

See more articles on crime and justice at Crime in America.

Most Dangerous Cities/States/Countries at Most Dangerous Cities.

US Crime Rates at Nationwide Crime Rates.

National Offender Recidivism Rates at Offender Recidivism.

The Crime in America.Net RSS feed (https://crimeinamerica.net/?feed=rss2) provides subscribers with a means to stay informed about the latest news, publications, and other announcements from the site.