Mamdani’s lead over Cuomo shrinks after Adams quits race, poll finds

Recent polling indicates that the gap between Democratic nominee and mayoral frontrunner Zohran Mamdani and independent candidate Andrew Cuomo has decreased, following the exit of incumbent Mayor Eric Adams from the race.

Mamdani currently holds 46% support among likely voters, while Cuomo follows with 33% and Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa at 15%, according to the Quinnipiac University poll.

A previous Quinnipiac survey, assessing a four-candidate race last month, showed Mamdani at 45% compared to Cuomo’s 23%, Sliwa’s 15%, and 12% for other candidates. Additional polls have consistently shown Mamdani maintaining a significant lead in this competitive arena.

The latest poll reveals Mamdani’s lead has diminished from 22 points to 13 points.

The data suggests that almost all supporters of Adams have shifted to Cuomo, with Sliwa’s backing remaining unchanged.

Quinnipiac noted that while Mamdani still retains a lead, the dynamics have shifted substantially due to Adams’ withdrawal.

“The numbers reflect a change, but the overall shape of the race remains constant. Andrew Cuomo has attracted the majority of Adams’ supporters, thus narrowing the gap with Mamdani, who still leads by a sizable margin,” remarked Mary Snow, Assistant Director of Quinnipiac U. Poll.

The Cuomo campaign expressed that these results indicate rising momentum for him—despite Mamdani also gaining ground compared to the prior poll—and suggested he could have a chance in a head-to-head scenario with Mamdani should Sliwa exit the race similar to Adams.

“Today’s Quinnipiac poll underscores what New Yorkers are observing across the city—that this race is conclusively changing. Andrew Cuomo has gained 10 points since September, while Zohran Mamdani’s numbers have remained flat, and Curtis Sliwa is continuing to lose traction,” stated Cuomo spokesman Rich Azzopardi.

Support for Mamdani is strongest among Democrats (60%), Asian American voters (67%), those aged 18 to 34 (62%), voters aged 35 to 49 (60%), and individuals identifying as non-religious (69%). He also has an edge over Cuomo among both Black and Hispanic voters.

Cuomo’s primary base of support stems from Jewish voters (60%).

In the Republican camp, 54% favor Sliwa while 37% back Cuomo.

More respondents perceive Mamdani as a more ethical candidate than Cuomo or Sliwa.

Cuomo’s primary hurdle in winning over voters may stem from his past controversies, including denials of sexual harassment allegations that ultimately led to his resignation in 2021. Currently, 52% of voters view him unfavorably.

Conversely, a larger portion of voters believes Cuomo possesses the “right kind of experience” to serve as mayor.

Voters were asked, regardless of their preferred candidate, which candidate would best represent New York City’s interests in Washington with President Trump in office.

The responses were closely divided, with 35% favoring Mamdani, 34% for Cuomo, and 22% for Sliwa, while 9% remained undecided.

“There is much discussion about the looming issue outside the ballot: President Trump. Both Mamdani and Cuomo argue that they would protect New York City’s interests under Trump, but voters perceive little distinction between them,” noted Quinnipiac’s Snow.

A notable majority of voters, 48%, believe Mamdani would excel at lowering housing costs compared to 25% for Cuomo and 13% for Sliwa, with 14% undecided.

When it comes to economic management, more voters feel Cuomo would be more capable, with a preference of 41% for him over 35% for Mamdani and 15% for Sliwa.

When asked which candidate’s views resonated more with their own regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict, the responses were: 45% for Mamdani, 26% for Cuomo, and 13% for Sliwa, with 20% undecided.

Considerably more voters expressed sympathy towards Palestinians over Israelis in this ongoing conflict, with a ratio of 43% to 22%, while a third provided no opinion.

The polling took place prior to President Trump’s announcement of the initial phase of a peace plan and hostage release concerning Israel and Hamas.

Quinnipiac engaged with 1,015 likely city voters from October 3 to 7, with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points.