Following a winter marked by minimal snowpack, high winds and temperatures have sparked wildfires in Utah and Colorado, consuming hundreds of thousands of acres. Governor Spencer Cox of Utah has labeled these fires as the “most destructive in the state’s history,” while Colorado Governor Jared Polis has declared them a disaster, prompting the mobilization of the National Guard.
Since the mid-1980s, the Western United States has faced nearly annual occurrences of devastating and often deadly wildfires. It is increasingly evident that we are entering a new era of destructive megafires, driven by a combination of climate change, changes in vegetation due to widespread fire suppression, and development at the wildland-urban interface. In this article, I will briefly discuss the history of wildfires and human responses in the West, examine climate metrics related to trends in megafires, and suggest potential mitigation and adaptation strategies to address the fire-climate crisis.
The first era of megafires
As the timber industry expanded west and north in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, large and destructive forest fires ensued, as logging and land clearing for agriculture produced significant debris accumulation. Notable and destructive fires during this period included:
- The 2,400 square-mile Peshtigo fire in Wisconsin, October 1871, which killed over 2,000 people;
- The 3-million acre Big Blowup in Washington, Idaho, and Montana, 1910, resulting in 85 deaths. The story of this fire is detailed in Timothy Eagan’s book, The Big Burn, which marked a pivotal moment for the young US Forest Service, transforming staff from pariahs opposing illegal logging and grazing to local heroes fighting the fire; and
- The Tillamook Burn in Oregon, a series of four fires between 1933 and 1958, which consumed 350,000 acres of mostly old-growth Douglas-fir.
Fire prevention and suppression techniques put in place
Indigenous peoples have long employed fire management techniques such as controlled burns to shape the landscape for survival. European colonizers, however, banned and criminalized many of these practices upon their arrival in the Americas.
During the 1930s and following World War II, under the New Deal, the US Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management, with the help of Civilian Conservation Corps workers, established a network of fire lookouts in the West. Fire stations were built and staffed at the district level, and a vigorous educational campaign was launched with slogans like Smokey the Bear’s “Only you can prevent forest fires.” Smokejumpers were trained to parachute into otherwise inaccessible areas to combat forest fires, primarily ignited by lightning.
This anti-fire campaign had initial success but was marred by a 1949 incident where 13 smokejumpers died fighting the Mann Gulch fire in west Montana. This tragedy, documented in Norman Maclean’s book Young Men and Fire, spurred the US Forest Service to initiate a program of research on fire behavior, leading to the establishment of Fire Science Laboratories in Missoula, MT, Riverside, CA, and Seattle, WA, along with research projects at various stations across the US. This research focused on understanding how local topography and microclimates could trigger sudden and dangerous shifts in fire behavior.
Regrettably, this March, the US Forest Service announced plans to close most of its research stations in 31 states and consolidate its research division in Fort Collins, Colorado. A similar relocation initiative by the Bureau of Land Management during the first Trump administration resulted in over 87 percent of the Bureau’s Washington, DC, office employees resigning.
This consolidation and downsizing of the Forest Service research program will severely impact ongoing research addressing the effects of climate change on wildfires and forest health. This move by the Trump administration is perceived as an ideological attack on science, and it will likely take years for the research program to recover.
Megafires in the era of climate change
Since the mid-1980s, records indicate significant increases in both the number of large wildland fires (those exceeding 400 hectares) and the total area they burn. The sharpest increases are observed in the northern Rocky Mountains, attributed to the earlier onset of spring and rising summer moisture deficits (or vapor pressure deficits). Historic moisture deficit data are sourced from climate records, while future projections derive from general circulation models. Strong evidence suggests that rising summer temperatures and atmospheric water deficits are the primary drivers of the upward trend in megafires.
Besides moisture (or vapor pressure deficit), climatic factors linked to longer fire seasons and increased burned areas include:
Mitigation and adaptation
For residents in wildlife-urban interface areas—regions where homes and businesses are adjacent to undeveloped land, forests, and grasslands—short-term adaptation to extreme forest fires might involve keeping a “go bag” ready. For long-term planning, decision-makers could consider modifying design standards to enhance building fire resistance.
Mitigation efforts might include reducing forest fuel loads through prescribed burning or cutting and removing vegetation. This strategy often targets “ladder fuels,” such as small trees and shrubs that can carry flames from the ground to the tree canopy. While reducing fuel loads can assist firefighters in protecting certain assets, it can be costly. In California, the average costs for prescribed burning range from $140 to $170 per acre, while cutting and removing vegetation costs between $6,500 to $8,500 per acre.
Thus far, over 100,000 acres in California’s Lake Tahoe region have undergone fuel load reduction treatments. However, these treatments must be repeated as vegetation regrows.
Unfortunately, climate change is limiting the opportunities for safely using prescribed fire—controlled burns—as a vegetation management strategy. This was underscored in 2022 when a prescribed fire in New Mexico escaped control, becoming the 345,000-acre Hermit’s Peak Fire.
Accurate and up-to-date information on forest conditions is crucial for planning and implementing fuel load reduction and prescribed burning. From the 1970s until last year, the US Forest Service’s Aerial Detection Survey mapped areas of forest mortality in California linked to insects, disease, drought, and wildfire through low-elevation flights with trained observers. However, last year, the Trump administration terminated funding for the survey, leading to the layoff of key staff and the program’s end.
Widening cooperation to address the megafire crisis
Ecologists have long recognized that many Indigenous Tribes have used fire for millennia to manage vegetation, enhancing forage for deer, keeping forests open for hunting, and promoting the growth of plants for food, dye, medicine, ceremonies, and weaving. Public agency staff have begun to appreciate the value of this Indigenous knowledge and seek collaboration opportunities.
Although the vocabularies of Tribes and agency staff differ, and distrust from the Tribal side is profound (for valid reasons), both parties are discovering the benefits of working together. The collaboration between the Yurok and Karuk tribes and the US Forest Service using prescribed fire as a vegetation management tool is a promising example.
To effectively address wildfires, it is essential to cease burning fossil fuels, hold fossil fuel companies accountable for the damages their products have caused, restore funding, and invest in wildfire research and prevention. This would enable the US to transition toward clean, renewable energy and sustainable land management. With the Trump administration opposing these goals, the nation faces a prolonged summer of dangerous wildfires. You can contribute by urging your member of Congress to prevent restructuring of the US Forest Service, ensuring the preservation of this agency’s vital wildfire prevention insights. Additionally, heed the advice of local agencies and officials if you reside in a wildfire-prone area.
