Michigan pollster Steve Mitchell has accused state Sen. Mallory McMorrow’s Senate campaign of exerting pressure on a state capitol news outlet, leading to the cancellation of a poll regarding the Democratic primary. Mitchell, who shared this with POLITICO, conducted the survey for Michigan Information & Research Service (MIRS), a news outlet that covers the state capitol. Despite their regular collaboration, MIRS chose not to release the survey following objections from McMorrow’s campaign.
The poll indicated McMorrow was at a mere 6 percent in the run-up to the crucial August 4 contest, trailing significantly behind Abdul El-Sayed, a former public health official, who stood at 42 percent, and Rep. Haley Stevens, who had 33 percent.
Mitchell, whose firm Mitchell Research & Communications conducted and financed the poll, stated, “The poll, in the eyes of the McMorrow campaign, understated their support.” He claimed that the campaign pressured MIRS, leading to the decision not to run the survey, which he supported.
Recent surveys have shown McMorrow lagging behind her opponents, with 6 percent being a new low, suggesting her campaign might be stuck in third place. The McMorrow campaign criticized the poll’s methodology, citing errors, including the misspelling of her name.
Kyle Melinn, a news editor at MIRS, explained that he decided to cancel the poll after discussions with the McMorrow campaign and other pollsters. “I told Steve that the campaign did raise issues with the poll, and that they were pressuring me to not run the poll,” Melinn said. He added that after considering the concerns and consulting other pollsters, he felt uncomfortable running it. These pollsters shared his concerns.
Jackson Boaz, a spokesperson for McMorrow’s campaign, stated, “Voicing concerns about a poll isn’t a pressure campaign. They chose not to publish a survey that is deeply flawed.” When asked if the campaign requested MIRS not to run the poll, Boaz said, “MIRS chose not to run the poll because they agreed the poll did not meet their standards.”
Boaz highlighted discrepancies in the data, including no undecided Black voters and low undecided percentages in Detroit compared to other areas. The campaign suspected, and MIRS confirmed, that the poll was accessible via an open link, compromising its randomness and representation.
The poll used a text-to-web method, sending random voters a link to the survey. However, the McMorrow campaign argued that all respondents received the same open-access link, allowing multiple or unauthorized participation.
Boaz emphasized, “The outlet that sponsored this poll declined to publish it because it didn’t meet their standards. It was conducted through an open SurveyMonkey link sent over text, meaning anyone who received this poll could vote multiple times or send the link to friends and supporters to impact the results.” He called the methodology “fundamental polling malpractice.”
Mitchell acknowledged some errors in the polling memo, such as incorrectly stating El-Sayed’s policy positions, but maintained confidence in the poll and its methodology. “I have always had 100 percent confidence in all the polling I do,” Mitchell said. He defended their approach, noting their careful methodology and strong track record.
When questioned about the open link issue, Mitchell remarked, “A poll is a poll,” and referenced a similar polling approach used by GOP gubernatorial candidate John James.
The debate over the canceled poll highlights the significance of the Michigan Senate race. Protecting this seat is crucial for Democrats aiming to reclaim the Senate majority. The party establishment has been active against Bernie Sanders-backed El-Sayed, fearing his candidacy might allow Republican Mike Rogers to capture the seat in November.
Recent polls indicate McMorrow trailing El-Sayed, who is gaining support, and Stevens, who has the backing of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.
In a memo about the disputed poll, Mitchell noted a “huge erosion in support for Mallory McMorrow.” He attributed this decline to El-Sayed’s media exposure from endorsements by Senator Bernie Sanders and others, and to significant financial support for Stevens. However, he pointed out that the poll coincided with a major ad buy for McMorrow, which had just started, potentially affecting the results.
