Taliban security personnel stand guard near the Ghulam Khan border crossing between Afghanistan and Pakistan in Afghanistan’s Khost province on Oct. 20, a day after a ceasefire was agreed in Doha, Qatar.
AFP/via Getty Images
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AFP/via Getty Images
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — After five days of on-and-off talks in Istanbul to resolve hostilities that flared in the first half of October, Pakistan and Afghanistan agreed to continue a ceasefire they arrived at earlier this month, Turkey’s Foreign Ministry announced Thursday.
In a statement, the ministry said the next round of talks would take place on Nov. 6: “All parties have agreed to put in place a monitoring and verification mechanism that will ensure maintenance of peace and imposing penalty on the violating party.”
The ceasefire came after more than a week of cross-border gunfire and targeted strikes inside Afghanistan killed dozens on both sides, including civilians. The agreement put a pause on the most intense fighting between the two countries in years.
Trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan has ground to a halt as major border crossings remain closed. Analysts warn that the conflict, which has deep roots, could reignite and destabilize the region. Here’s what to know.
What’s at stake?
The main issue between the neighboring countries is rising militancy in Pakistan’s mountainous borderlands, where the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, also known as the Pakistani Taliban, has ramped up attacks in the years since the Taliban took over Afghanistan in 2021, following the withdrawal of U.S. forces. The TTP is closely aligned with the Afghan Taliban, and Pakistan accuses Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers of providing them a base and failing to rein them in when they orchestrate deadly attacks in Pakistan — all of which Afghanistan’s Taliban denies.
Each country blamed the other for a breakdown in talks earlier this week. In a post on X, Pakistan’s Information Minister Ataullah Tarar said Afghanistan’s Taliban “have always remained indifferent to Pakistan’s losses. … Pakistan’s patience has run its course.” Afghan state broadcaster RTA accused Pakistan of “irrational demands.”
Pakistan’s increasingly bold military actions inside Afghanistan reflect its hardening stance toward cross-border militant groups, says Muhammad Amir Rana, director of Islamabad’s Pak Institute for Peace Studies, an independent think tank. “This is signaling to the [Afghan] Taliban that if you haven’t changed your attitudes or policies supporting the TTP and other terrorist organizations inside Pakistan, Pakistan can retaliate,” he says.
What sparked this month’s fighting?
The conflict began after TTP militants ambushed a Pakistani army convoy on Oct. 8, killing 11 soldiers near the Afghan border. The TTP aims to overthrow the Pakistani government and impose hardline Islamic rule, as the Taliban did in Afghanistan.
Afghanistan then blamed Pakistan for multiple strikes inside its territory on Oct. 9, including in its capital, Kabul. Pakistan has neither officially confirmed nor denied carrying out the strikes.
Two nights later, there was a retaliation from Afghan forces as they fired at Pakistan’s border posts, resulting in a back-and-forth exchange of gunfire along the border. This cross-border fighting escalated once again a few days later before both sides agreed to an initial truce, which was later extended in Doha, Qatar, on Oct. 19.
Prior to the ceasefire talks in Doha, Pakistan initiated what security officials referred to as targeted strikes against militants in Afghanistan’s eastern province of Paktika.
Efforts to engage the Taliban in discussions regarding the TTP have not been fruitful for Pakistan, according to analysts. Abdul Basit, a senior associate fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, mentioned that Pakistani attempts to persuade the Taliban to take action against the TTP have been unsuccessful.
Islamabad has also resorted to pressuring the Taliban by deporting Afghan refugees.
The TTP, which emerged in 2007 in response to Pakistan’s military support of the U.S. fight against the Taliban in Afghanistan, has primarily targeted Pakistani security personnel in recent years. The group has also claimed responsibility for brutal attacks on civilians, including one in 2014 that resulted in the deaths of over 100 Pakistani schoolchildren. With close ideological ties and shared battlefield experience with Afghanistan’s Taliban, the TTP has experienced a resurgence in the past four years after being significantly weakened by counterterrorism campaigns a decade ago.
Pakistan has had historical ties to the Taliban, dating back to the 1990s when it supported the group. The country has been accused of covertly backing the Taliban during the U.S. war in Afghanistan, a claim that Islamabad denies.
President Trump recently expressed optimism about resolving the conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan quickly. Meanwhile, Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid emphasized Afghanistan’s desire for positive relations with Pakistan and its commitment to principles of mutual respect and non-interference in internal affairs.
Recent developments indicate growing ties between Afghanistan and India, Pakistan’s eastern neighbor and rival, while hopes of improved relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan were raised during a trilateral meeting with China earlier this year. However, tensions persist, with Pakistan’s defense minister suggesting that Kabul is being influenced by Delhi.
The current ceasefire suggests that Pakistan has been successful in pressuring the Taliban through military means, but there are concerns about the Taliban’s continued support for the TTP. This support could lead to further destabilization in the region, potentially resulting in more attacks by the TTP in Pakistan and escalated military actions by Pakistan in Afghanistan.
Experts warn that border tensions could reach a new level, with potential for further escalation if not addressed effectively. The situation remains volatile, with the risk of conflict intensifying if diplomatic efforts fail to yield significant progress. sentence in a more concise way: “The young girl walked slowly and carefully across the busy street.”
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