Gas prices are high. Americans think they’re even higher.
An analysis from The POLITICO Poll reveals that three in five Americans believe gas prices in their area have increased more than they actually have. This perception is something candidates will need to address in the upcoming fall elections.
Concerns about fuel costs could potentially benefit Democrats in the midterm elections, bolstering their voter base while putting pressure on the MAGA coalition, especially as the unpopular conflict in Iran continues. A significant portion of Americans — 46 percent — say that changes in gas prices will influence their voting decisions in November.
The analysis of polling data and pricing information from OPIS, a Dow Jones company, shows that most voters have overestimated gas price changes in their areas. This includes supporters of both President Donald Trump and former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Around 25 percent of Americans believe gas prices in their area have risen by $3.00 or more. However, no zip code has experienced such a change, on average, since Trump assumed office, as of early July.
Rising living costs may be reinforcing negative opinions about the Trump administration. Harris supporters are more prone to overestimate price increases compared to Trump supporters, complicating Republican efforts to attract Democratic voters.
There also appears to be a divide among Trump supporters. MAGA Republicans tend to underestimate price increases compared to non-MAGA Republicans, creating additional challenges for the president’s coalition as Republicans strive to maintain their unity for the midterms.
“It’s a particularly challenging task for many Republican candidates over the next three months,” observed Arizona GOP strategist Barrett Marson. “How can you empathize with your voters’ struggles without incurring Donald Trump’s wrath?”
Even when gas prices change, American perceptions do not shift quickly. The POLITICO Poll surveyed perceptions during both May, when prices peaked, and July, when they declined, with similar results in both months.
“President Trump and his energy team anticipated these temporary market disruptions, openly communicated them to the American people, and executed an aggressive plan to mitigate impacts,” stated White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers. “As the U.S. military weakens the Iranian regime’s ability to attack commercial vessels and disrupt energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas prices will drop back to pre-conflict levels.”
Gas prices could swing votes
Americans’ dissatisfaction with gas prices and the economy is influencing their voting intentions for the fall.
Among the 46 percent of Americans who said gas prices will affect their vote, just under 40 percent are considering voting for a different party than usual, including 49 percent of MAGA Republicans and 57 percent of non-MAGA Republicans.
“Three-quarters of the country are dealing with higher gas prices and feeling it,” said Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson. “This makes them very susceptible to economic hardships and the economic arguments Democrats will present.”
To gain insight into public perceptions of gas prices, The POLITICO Poll asked Americans how gas prices in their area have changed since Trump took office. Respondents could choose options such as “between $1 to $2 higher per gallon,” “between $1 to $2 lower per gallon,” or indicate that prices have remained roughly the same.
Over 75 percent reported that gas prices in their area have risen.
POLITICO used OPIS data to compare each respondent’s answer against the actual average gas price in their zip code during the first week of Trump’s administration and the week before the July poll, conducted by Public First from July 12 to July 15.
This comparison highlighted the disparity between public sentiment and actual gas prices, and how this varies between Democrats and Republicans. According to POLITICO’s analysis, about 70 percent of Harris voters and 54 percent of Trump voters overestimated the increase in gas prices in their area.
“Democrats are highly motivated as a voting base,” Marson noted. “The longer the war continues, the less motivated Republicans might become.”
The perception of rising gas prices is linked to economic views and attribution of blame.
Nationally, 57 percent of Americans believe the cost of living is worse than they can ever recall. Those who overestimate gas price increases are more than twice as likely to agree with this sentiment, even after accounting for demographics and their 2024 voting intentions.
Similarly, a plurality of Americans — 43 percent — hold Trump more responsible than Joe Biden for the state of the economy. Those who overestimated local gas price increases were nearly twice as likely to share this view, compared to those who were accurate or underestimated the change.
It’s already affecting the battlegrounds
In the nation’s most competitive races, Republicans will face scrutiny over perceived rising gas prices more frequently than Democrats.
According to POLITICO’s analysis, 13 highly competitive districts have experienced gas price increases above the national average. Of these, nine are represented by Republicans.
In California’s 22nd District, Republican David Valadao is set to compete against progressive newcomer Randy Villegas. By early July, average prices in the district rose by $1.17, the third-highest increase among districts analyzed by POLITICO.
In an interview, Villegas expressed that frustration over gas prices could drive voter turnout in the fall, as fuel costs impact nearly every aspect of life.
“It’s the cost of gas when you’re driving to the grocery store or to see a doctor,” he explained. “Or the cost when driving 7 to 8 hours to access cheaper healthcare.”
Valadao did not respond to requests for comment.
In Colorado’s 8th District, gas prices have risen by $0.73 on average since Trump took office. Republican Gabe Evans attributed the cost increase more to local Democratic policies than the Iran war.
Evans stated that while global events have some impact on energy prices, high gas prices in the district are “a direct result of the local economic policies — the anti-energy policies — of the state Democrats who run Colorado.”
However, the latest POLITICO Poll indicates that voters don’t necessarily agree. Around 63 percent of Americans identified “the war with Iran” as the primary reason for increased gas prices since Trump took office, including 59 percent of Trump voters and 70 percent of Harris voters.
By mid-May, the national average gas price reached its highest point during the Trump administration at $4.50 per gallon, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In July, prices dropped to $3.78 per gallon, the lowest average since March.
Nonetheless, in both months, more than 75 percent of Americans reported that gas prices had increased, according to POLITICO’s polls. In both instances, approximately 23 percent believed prices had risen by $3.00 or more.
This week, Trump stated that the upcoming midterms would not influence his approach to the Iran war. “I can’t think about that having to do with this,” he remarked, referring to the elections. “I think people are very impressed.”
